A model of disintegration

By Salama A Salama

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The Iraqi elections took place under the most anomalous circumstances. Their purpose had less to do with promoting a democratic process than with helping to further American aims in precluding a state of escalating chaos claiming the lives of many American soldiers. The deplorable situation reached a stage where even the Shia were on the point of aligning themselves with the Sunni resistance if the elections had not been held on time.

Election monitors are unable to say how the elections proceeded. The lists of candidates, their names and manifestos, were all but invisible and a strict curfew was imposed. The electorate were not aquainted with the balloting process. International monitors hid in their hotel rooms while the electorate resembled someone chasing a black cat in the dark.

These elections will probably change the future not just of Iraq but of the entire Arab world. And as much as the elections were held in the dark, they forced the US and Britain into a darker tunnel. Few now doubt that the rise of the first Shia Arab state is imminent. This is likely to leave Iraq prey to the ambitions of separatist movements.

The Kurds have several non- negotiable demands. They insist on the preservation of their independence within a federal framework, the return of their land and the control of their oil wealth.

If the attempts to woo the Sunnis who boycotted the elections fail, some Shia will most likely demand the establishment of a federal state in the south.

Neighbouring Arab countries view with trepidation possible developments. If the Shia do come to power the pressing question will be: what would be the character of such a system of governance? Will it follow the Iranian model or adopt a more secular flavour? And what effect will this have on a country like Bahrain, with a Shia majority ruled by a Sunni minority? What reaction will it provoke from the Shia minorities that constitute between 10 and 15 per cent of the population of Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia?

From the start the Americans and their lackey, such as Allawi and Chalabi, acted to underline sectarian divisions -- a policy which was pursued by Bremmer. Held under these conditions, the elections could only be expected to deepen such schisms.

Those who underestimated the impact of such a dangerous approach and simply thought that elections would be all it would take to save the Iraqi people from Saddam's dictatorship will come to realise that what begins in error results only in greater and more intractable errors.

While acknowledging that sectarian strife and national disintegration have their historical roots, they were further deepened by the haphazard fashion of the elections.

Before the war Washington imagined it could reshape Iraq in whatever way it wanted, creating a democratic regime willing to serve Western interests. What they did not bargain for was that the war would awaken a volcano of sectarian resentment. Instead of creating an Iraqi regime that might stand up to the Iranians, matters have been turned on their head, reawakening fears of a Shia crescent stretching throughout the Middle East and threatening the region's stability.

These are the very fears voiced recently by King Abdullah of Jordan. As President Mubarak put it, the Americans went into Iraq without considering how they were going to get out.

The immediate effect will be to fuel religious movements with outbreaks of sectarian violence similar to those between Protestants and Catholics that once plagued Europe. After savage wars the European conflict was resolved by a separation of church and state. What is happening in Iraq with the support, or the ignorance of America will have an opposite effect.

Encouraging religiosity, dealing with religious leaders and setting them against one another for advancing political ends will not save Iraq from sectarianism. It will make it an inherent feature of the country's political scene.

And the tragedy will not only be Iraq's. "Lebanonisation" will have become the model of a pattern of pluralism that actually undermines the transition towards democracy in the Arab world.