Tehran's vote

Rasha Saad assesses the Iranian role in Iraqi politics

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Iraqi election officers count absentee votes at a counting centre in Tehran (photo: AP)

Hundreds of Iraqi men and women gathered on 28--30 January at poll stations located in different parts of Iran to vote in Iraq's elections.

Iraqis living in Iran comprise one of the largest blocs of expatriate voters. Some 75 per cent of the 81,000 eligible Iraqi voters residing in Iran have reportedly registered at the six polling stations there. While both Tehran and Washington hailed the elections as a success, the two arch-foes took the elections as a chance to exchange accusations over meddling in Iraqi affairs and attempting to influence the results of the elections. Influential former Iranian president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani warned that Washington might not accept Iraq becoming a country that is "free and independent and that does not stand next to America and Israel". The same day United States Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, summed up her country's worries saying that "we certainly are concerned by the role that Iran has tried to play in Iraq."

The US was not alone in the campaign against Iran. Weeks before the elections, Iraqi Defence Minister Hazem Shaalan, charged that the Unified Iraqi Alliance, a coalition of mainly Shia parties running as a joint slate in the elections, including Abdul-Aziz Al-Hakim's faction, was led by Iranian agents. The list was put by a committee appointed by influential Grand Ayatollah Ali Al- Sistani. Both Al-Hakim and Al-Sistani are known to be well connected with Tehran.

For the US, there are growing fears, since the fall of Saddam Hussein, that the Islamic republic is interfering in Iraq to impose an Iranian-style theocracy in Baghdad with the help of its Shia supporters.

While Iran attempted to allay those fears, not everyone seemed convinced by Iranian statements assuring the Islamic republic's refrain from interfering in Iraq. "I certainly deny there's any involvement of Iran in the internal affairs of Iraq," Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharazi said on Saturday.

However, Iraqi candidates, both Sunni and Shia, insist that Iran has secretly pumped millions of dollars into the leading Iraqi Shia parties. Irrespective of the veracity of such accusation, there is little doubt that the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), led by Al-Hakim, and Daawa -- the two dominant parties of the United Iraqi Alliance -- were nurtured by the Iranians.

Both parties fell under strong Iranian influence when Saddam Hussein was ruthlessly persecuting Iraq's Shia majority and assassinating its main political and religious leaders. Their leaders received sanctuary and money from Iran. Iraq's leading Shia cleric, Ali Al-Sistani, nearly 82 years old, was born in Iran and moved to Najaf during the 1950s.

Iran is also believed to have done little to hide its support for Al-Hakim. Tehran strongly condemned the assassination attempt against Al-Hakim late last month with Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi describing such attacks as aiming at "eliminating effective Iraqi leaders who have shouldered the responsibility of defending the Iraqi nation for more than 20 years".

Reports also refer to "undeniable links" in southern Iraq, namely in Basra, between Iran and the Shia parties. According to these press reports, supplies have been pouring across the border to help with election planning and preparation.

Border authorities in Basra, which lies on the Iran-Iraq border, say, however, that most of the Iranian travellers, including those making illegal crossings, are believed to be genuine religious pilgrims to Iraqi holy sites. They say, though, that there are also bound to be other types, including insurgents. However they too confess that they do not have specific information and do not have a clear idea as to the degree of influence Iran has in the region.

"With Iraq on its borders and an obvious rising power of the Shia in the light of a Sunni abstention, Iran cannot afford to be excluded from the Iraqi political scene," commented Mahmoud Farag, a former Egyptian diplomat and expert on Iran. Farag pointed out that Iran might also be seeking to use its influence in Iraq as a bargaining chip with the US. "Secret talks are ongoing between the two sides [Iran and the US] even if official statements claim otherwise. Thus Iran might be using its influence as a bargaining chip during these talks."

However, both Iranian officials and leaders of the United Iraqi Alliance along with influential Al-Sistani insist that while they do want Islamic principles to be incorporated into the government, they have no intentions of seeking an Iranian-style theocracy in Iraq.

"We have never called for the formation of an Islamic government that resembles Iran," said Al-Hakim.

At the same time, they insist that Iraq's next government, regardless of who wins, will need to forge better ties with Iran in the interests of regional peace and stability.

So is the Iranian involvement in Iraq being exaggerated?

According to some views fears that the two main Iraqi Shia parties would take orders from Iran's Ayatollahs -- imposing pro-Iranian policies on Baghdad or establishing an Iraqi Shia theocracy -- are all misplaced.

According to this school of thinking, while it is true that both Al-Daawa and the SCIRI have strong historical links with Iran, their politics, aspirations and main constituencies are now firmly rooted in Iraq. "If these parties come to power as part of a national Iraqi government, with broad support from all major population groups, their independence from Iran seems assured," wrote The New York Times.

However this does not mean that Iran is not playing a pivotal role in Iraq.

Tehran welcomed the fall of Saddam Hussein, but wants to ensure that a future Iraqi government is at least not hostile to Iran and not friendly with the US. Since the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime, Iran has frequently stressed its desire for good ties with Iraq and was in fact one of the first countries in the region last year to recognise the US-appointed Iraqi Governing Council.

Officially Iran backed holding the elections in time as a step to create the conditions required for the departure of foreign forces and is hostile to any postponement arguing that delay could worsen Iraq's security situation.

Informed Iranian analyst Sadeq Al- Husseini, rejects the terms "involvement" and "meddling" when describing Iranian relations with Iraq. Al- Husseini does not deny that Iran has a special concern for Iraq as part of its vital regional and national security.

However, Al-Husseini attributes the Iranian high profile in Iraq partly to US propaganda as well as to the failure of Arab countries in playing a major role in Iraq. "Iran cannot stand hands-tied while Iraq falls into chaos with its state institutions, infrastructure and sovereignty collapsed."