New era?

Behind the expressions of optimism at the Sharm El-Sheikh summit Dina Ezzat finds more than enough cause for caution

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PEACE ROADS: An Egyptian policeman directs traffic in Sharm El-Sheikh as the resort city hosts groundbreaking peace talks

SHARM SUMMIT FOCUS

Next week, maybe as early as Sunday, a joint Palestinian-Israeli security/negotiation committee will convene in Ramallah and Jerusalem to discuss a long list of Israeli security demands, including the blocking of tunnels connecting Gaza with Rafah and the disarmament of Palestinian Islamist factions. The joint Palestinian-Israeli meetings will also review a list of the names of Palestinian prisoners the Palestinian Authority still hopes Israel will release.

Simultaneously, Egypt's own security delegation will continue efforts to upgrade the Palestinian security apparatus, while Jordan will seek to upgrade its own security assistance to the PA in an attempt to abort any attack against Israeli targets.

This security-oriented approach to the Palestinian- Israeli file is the result of this week's Sharm El- Sheikh Arab-Israeli summit that brought President Hosni Mubarak and Jordan's King Abdullah, as mediators, together with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, as negotiators.

Each of the four found reasons for optimism. For Egypt and Jordan the nightmare of the past four years, during which the leaders of both countries have had to wake up every morning to reports of Israel's aggression against the Palestinian people and the demonstrations of anger they inevitably provoke on the Egyptian and Jordanian street, may be coming to an end.

For the Palestinians there was hope of improvement on the ground as the international community promised economic support to improve the living standards of Palestinians in return for a commitment to demilitarise the Intifada and neutralise resistance operations by the Palestinian factions.

For the Israelis, the most cautious in expressing hope -- Sharon described the summit as a "very fragile chance" -- Sharm El-Sheikh marked the real beginning of the post Arafat era and a new political process based on Sharon's unilateral disengagement plan rather than the roadmap.

To judge by the language expressed by the three speeches made in the one public 30-minute session of the summit, the four parties might well conceive their groundbreaking meeting as a first step; it is by no means clear, however, that they are speaking of the same road.

In the joint Egyptian-Jordanian speech read by President Hosni Mubarak hope was expressed that the Sharm El-Sheikh summit would lead the way to "alleviating the suffering of the Palestinian people and to rebuilding the Palestinian economy", with the aim of securing the smooth and prompt implementation of the unilateral disengagement plan "as a first step towards the implementation of the roadmap".

"What we... hope might happen now is for the initiation of a security/political process that will eventually, maybe within a few months, take the situation... back to 27 September, 2000 which means that the Israelis pull out their troops -- or most of them -- from Gaza and some parts of the West Bank, facilitate the exercise of authority of the Palestinian leadership and refrain from attacking and killing the leaders of Islamist Palestinian factions."

In short Egypt and Jordan hope that the current Israeli prime minister will allow the situation to return to that which prevailed under Ehud Barak before Sharon provoked the 2000 Intifada by his visit to Al- Aqsa mosque.

The Palestinians, as Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas said, hope for an end to occupation and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state, though no reference was made to East Jerusalem being its capital, the formula invariably used by late Palestinian President Yasser Arafat.

Security now, and security in the future, is what Sharon said the Israelis want. They also want normalisation. "I am calling on Arab leaders to join hands with us to create a new atmosphere in our region," Sharon said in his speech.

But, as Sharon warned, caution should prevail. And when Israeli officials speak of caution what they mean is that the Palestinians have to deliver first before Israel decides what it will give in response.

"We cannot put the cart before the horse," said Raanan Gissin, Sharon's spokesman. The issue of Palestinian prisoners will, then, be dealt with on a case- by-case basis and the issue of settlements deferred to some non-specified later date.

The two-page paper of understanding that was supposed to be made public before the Sharm El-Sheikh summit convened was withheld because of Sharon's objections. But, say sources close to the negotiations, it was agreed that in their speeches Abbas and Sharon would both say that they "agreed that all Palestinians will stop all acts of violence against all Israelis and at the same time Israel will cease its military activity against all Palestinians everywhere". It was also agreed that Abbas would refer in his speech to the many disagreements with Israel over issues related to settlements and the release of prisoners and would commit himself to working towards solving these problems.

The Israelis emerged from the Sharm El-Sheikh summit insisting that the path was now set for a pre-roadmap course paved by Palestinian security commitments supported by both Egypt and Jordan. The Palestinians emerged disappointed, but still hope the US and international community will exercise pressure on Israel to meet at least some of their demands.

If the event was hailed as a success in many capitals, including Washington, this could not obscure the dismay expressed by the Palestinian factions. Hamas leaders said they needed a first-hand briefing and explanations from Abbas on the outcome of the summit, while Arab Knesset member Azmi Bishara issued a statement decrying its outcome. Nor, for all their optimism, could the summit's most ardent supporters avoid punctuating hopeful words with a smattering of buts.