Post-election doldrums
Continuing bloodshed deprives Iraqis of the luxury of discussing the elections and debating the shape of the future government, reports Nermeen Al-Mufti from Baghdad
While the majority of Iraqis remain too worried about their immediate safety to savour the hopes elections were supposed to revive, the political transformation of the country proceeds on schedule. The Elections Higher Commission approved the results of the vote and the last 14 vacant seats on the National Assembly have been distributed between the winning lists.
They are results with which not all Iraqis are happy. A former interim government minister, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Al-Ahram Weekly "there are clear discrepancies in the ratios of turnout."
"It was said that 91 per cent of voters turned out in the three Kurdish governorates of Dahuk, Irbil, and Al- Sulaymaniya, that the ratio did not exceed 62 per cent in the nine governorates with a Shia majority and that 15 per cent voted in governorates with a Sunni majority... The number of voters in Dahuk, if we use the ration card data base, which the Higher Elections Commission did, was 255,000. And yet the votes counted there came to 383,000. There have been irregularities. I am not accusing anyone, but I have the figures."
Asked if he expected an Iranian-style regime to emerge the former minister said: "I don't think so. Most of the UIA leaders are liberal Shias. They are people who lived in Europe and America and prefer a system of government that suits this country."
A Sunni cleric in Mosul, also speaking on condition of anonymity, said he had not voted in the parliamentary elections when his list decided to boycott them. "But I and others in the Islamic Party made a point of participating in the local elections," he continued. "What happened in Mosul annuls the result of the elections, at least in this part of the country. Members of the National Guard, who were originally members of the Kurdish peshmerga, meddled with the vote. Ballot boxes didn't arrive on time and non-Kurds were prevented from voting in some centres. That's how the Kurds got 190,000 votes in the local council elections. Where were the Arab, Christian and Turkomans? The Kurds were never a majority in Mosul. The city has a majority of Arabs and the highest ratio of Christians in Iraq. The irregularities have been noted... The Kurds now represent Mosul. I don't understand why the Kurds want a federal system when they control the entire country."
"Unfortunately the elections were neither fair nor free," says Al-Sharif Ali Ibn Al-Hussein of the Monarchy Movement. "We have filed complaints to the Higher Commission. The elections did not succeed in ensuring fair representation. The situation remains unchanged, with the political equation as it was prior to the elections. The elections have failed in their main task, which was to bring about a government that has the backing of all Iraqis."
Political analyst Ali Abdul-Karim was sceptical about the outcome. In Beirut, he said, the US assistant secretary of state said that Syria must withdraw or else Lebanese parliamentary elections would be meaningless given the presence of occupying forces. The same goes for Iraq. "The elections were illegitimate because they were held under US occupation."
Consultations are underway to choose the next prime minister. After meetings that lasted for more than a week Interim Vice President Ibrahim Al-Jaafari was chosen as the UIA's candidate after Ahmed Chalabi dropped his bid. Al-Jaafari is likely to be approved by two-thirds of the newly elected 275-member National Assembly when the parliament convenes. A date for that has not been set, but there are reports it could convene next week. According to reports Chalabi traded his candidacy for the post of deputy prime minister in charge of economic and security affairs.
Al-Jaafari's chances were always thought better than those of Chalabi's whose once close ties with the Americans make him unpopular among most Iraqis.
The future president is likely to be Jalal Talabani, and most Iraqis do not seem to mind that so long as Talabani speaks for the entire country and not just for the Kurds. Meanwhile 200 Sunni figures have organised a national unity conference, calling on all Iraqis to participate in the country's political life. Several Sunni leaders have called for Ghazi Al-Yawar, the current president, to stay in his job.
The country's future remains uncertain though many Iraqis now seem willing to sacrifice some of their political rights in return for law and order.
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