Winds of change

By Salama A Salama

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The winds of change are blowing through the Arab world. Following a barrage of increasingly loud threats Syria is withdrawing from Lebanon, but one step on the road towards the Greater Middle East, the project devised by the G8 with the goal of chasing totalitarianism from the region. It may be driven by the invisible hand of fate, as in Arafat's death, or by the machinations of intelligence services, as in Al-Hariri's assassination, but one thing is certain -- change is on the way.

Reluctant regimes are being forced on the straight and narrow, as they are prodded towards objectives first stated in Istanbul in mid 2004 and then underlined more recently in Rabat. The picture began to clear with Condoleezza Rice's tour of Europe. Washington is intent on changing the region despite fierce resistance from Arab regimes that have consistently argued that reform should come from within.

The relative success of the Iraqi elections has boosted Washington's confidence to the point of conceit. Bush could not help boasting about this achievement during his recent tour of Europe. The Americans have also been heartened by changes in Palestine that have followed Arafat's death.

Mahmoud Abbas was elected to office and his government has pledged to halt the Intifada and all acts of violence. Egypt, which brought Abbas and Sharon together at Sharm El- Sheikh, helped accelerate the process. Both Egypt and Jordan have returned their ambassadors to Israel.

Egypt and Saudi Arabia may well be the two countries most vulnerable to current changes and both have decided to bend with the wind, shifting policies in a surprising fashion. Municipal elections were held, of all places, in Saudi Arabia, giving the Saudis their first ever taste of participatory politics. Kuwait is about to allow women to vote. And President Mubarak surprised everyone with a constitutional amendment allowing multi- candidate elections to take place for the first time in over half a century.

The US has finally mended fences with Europe, and Russia was more than willing to help pressure Damascus. Apparently the US was, and remains, willing to bring down the Syrian regime militarily, as was reported by the US-based Arabic-language television station Al-Horra.

The Americans know that getting Syrian out of Lebanon will have long-term repercussions in the region. And what happened in Lebanon show that Europe -- with Russia included -- is willing to back US plans for intervention.

The Americans and Europeans are prepared to use diplomatic means, military sanctions and a range of other measures mandated by the UN Security Council to force Arab regimes to change. The Americans and Europeans are determined to rid the region of the despotism and corruption that is often blamed for spread of terror.

The UN Security Council passed Resolution 1559 unanimously, despite Arab protests that the resolution constituted a breach of sovereignty. The international community feels entitled to intervene if given a sufficient pretext, as happened in Syria and Lebanon. Perhaps Sudan will soon be called to task over Darfur.

Some have welcomed the wind blowing across the region as a herald of democracy. This is too simplistic: the wind that is blowing is thick with dust and sand. Should we fumble, should we fall in the middle of the road, we will become easy prey. A scheme is being hatched, a scheme approved by the G8, and it allows for intervention under any number of labels, and for any number of reasons. This, at least, is clear.