Shifting ground

Bush refuses to support Sharon's expansion of settlements in the West Bank in return for withdrawal from Gaza. Khaled Dawoud reports from Washington

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Despite their well-known close alliance, George W Bush's position seemed rather unusual and exceptionally tough in his joint news conference with Prime Minister Ariel Sharon on Monday. At least four times, Bush stated that the roadmap, a peace plan approved two years ago by the US, the European Union, Russia and the United Nations, equivocally opposed the expansion of Israeli settlements in the West Bank. "Israel has obligations under the roadmap. The roadmap clearly says no expansion of settlements," Bush said.

More importantly, he referenced the "letter of assurances" he had handed to Sharon a year ago, stating that "realities on the ground" should be taken into account. Negotiating a final deal on borders between Israel and Palestine did not imply approval of expanding existing illegal settlements, dubbed as "major population centres".

However, the long-experienced Israeli premier did not nudge, and denied he was even "disappointed" by such statements. At the end of his appearance with Bush, he vowed to remain committed to his plan to expand the West Bank settlement of Maale Adumim and linking it to occupied East Jerusalem. But, he said, that "might take many years to happen", and he was certain that there would be more opportunities to talk about it with the US president. The settlement practically divides the West Bank and ends the prospect of an integrated Palestinian state.

Both leaders affirmed that they would concentrate on Sharon's plan to pull out from the occupied, heavily populated Gaza Strip, due to begin in late July. Bush said he was optimistic about the successful implementation of the Gaza withdrawal. This, coupled with pledges to support the Palestinian Authority financially and in rebuilding its security forces, would pave the road for further negotiations on the West Bank. Sharon, however, stood firm, insisting that he would not make any further moves before the Palestinians dismantled armed groups he typically described as "terrorist".

Sharon has met Bush 10 times since the latter took office four years ago, ranking him second to British Prime Minister Tony Blair. However, their meeting on Monday was the first to take place in Bush's private ranch in Crawford, Texas, a measure reserved for close friends and allies. The meeting was originally intended to provide the Israeli prime minister with strong backing ahead of the anticipated withdrawal from Gaza. Sharon is facing strong opposition within his own right-wing Likud Party and the extremist settlement movement. Yet the Israeli government's recent decision to expand Maale Adumim ahead of Sharon's visit to Washington somewhat spoiled the expected friendly atmosphere, and opened the door for a rare public exchange of differences.

Ahead of Sharon's arrival, senior Israeli officials held intense meetings with US counterparts and influential Jewish-American groups. These meetings emphasised the major "historic compromise" the Israeli prime minister was taking in unilateral withdrawal from Gaza. They insisted that this required strong backing for Sharon's plan to expand Maale Adumim and that this was the only way to convince the right-wing camp in Israel that the Gaza plan would benefit Israel's long-term interests. Some even asked the US administration to pressure Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to postpone scheduled parliament elections on 17 July, in case the Islamic Hamas movement scored a major victory. This, they warned, could strengthen domestic opposition to the pullout. They insisted that the Gaza plan was tough enough and likely to lead to a lot of domestic tension in Israel.

They also suggested that Bush should not even reiterate his request to remove so-called "illegal outposts" from the West Bank. The illegal "outposts" are nearly two dozen scattered gatherings of mobile homes owned by Jewish extremists in the West Bank that have expanded in recent years in collusion with the Israeli government. Sharon had already promised to remove them in his meeting with Bush a year ago, but so far nothing has happened. In their joint news conference on Monday, Sharon renewed his pledge to remove the outposts after Bush repeated the request.

In a television interview aired the night before his meeting with Bush, Sharon attempted to ease US pressure on him. He referred to the strong domestic opposition he was facing, going as far as warning of a possible civil war in Israel. But he clarified himself the second day, saying he spoke only of an "atmosphere of a civil war in Israel".

US observers noted that had Bush backed Sharon's plan to expand the West Bank settlement of Maale Adumim, any credibility he enjoyed among Palestinians and Arab countries would be shattered. They also pointed out that this is a critical time in the region where tensions are rife in several countries, in particular Iraq and Lebanon.

Several Arab governments, including close US allies such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia, were disappointed by the letter of assurances Bush handed to Sharon last year. They claimed that it prejudiced the outcome of final status negotiations and provided a generous reward prematurely. At that time, US administration officials said it was necessary to give Sharon backing to carry out his Gaza disengagement plan. Bush is due to meet Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah in Washington on 25 April, and is expected to hold a similar meeting with Palestinian President Abbas in early May.

In his news conference on Monday, Bush sought to clarify what the letter of assurances meant, and denied that it aimed at prejudicing the outcome of final status negotiations. "As part of a final peace settlement, Israel must have secure and recognised borders. These should emerge from negotiations between the parties in accordance with UN Security Council Resolutions 242 and 338." He added, "as I said last April, new realities on the ground make it unrealistic to expect that the outcome of final status negotiations will be a full and complete return to the armistice lines of 1949. It is realistic to expect that any final status agreement will be based on mutually agreed changes that reflect these realities. That's the American view."

Sharon interpreted the US letter as a green light to expand the existing Israeli settlements, claiming this was due to "natural growth". But, the roadmap was clear in rejecting any form of expansion of Israeli settlements, whether for natural growth or any other purposes.

However, experts in the Middle East peace process warned against any hasty conclusions that there was a growing gap between Bush and Sharon or that they would head towards a confrontation. They also noted that since the death of Palestinian President Yasser Arafat in November and the election of Abbas, the US administration has practically put little pressure on Sharon to implement the understandings he has reached with the Palestinians. Little efforts have been made to restore the peace process, whether in terms of handing over West Bank towns to Palestinians, release of prisoners, or easing severe restrictions on their movement.

The Bush administration has also been firm in rejecting Palestinian and Arab requests to move to the final status negotiations and determine what would follow the Gaza disengagement plan.

"To me, that's where the attention of the world ought to be -- on Gaza. This is an opportunity that I intend to focus my government's attention on. And we will work with our friends and allies around the world to keep their attention focussed on succeeding in this, in helping Gaza become a peaceful and self-governing part of, eventually, a Palestinian state," Bush told reporters as Sharon stood beside him expressionless. What follows next remains to be seen.