More danger in random terrorism

By Khalil El Anani

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Commenting on the explosion that rocked Cairo's Al-Azhar district a few days ago, Egypt's prosecutor-general described it as a "random" individual action unlikely to be repeated in not being linked to any long-term group strategy. He aimed to be reassuring but we should not take it lightly.

Firstly, such acts could spread for any number of different reasons: from frustration at the current state of affairs to solidarity with any particular Arab cause. The potential will remain so long as problems are unaddressed.

Secondly, given that individuals are not members of specific organisations it makes them hard to identify, follow or predict, and most especially to thwart before disaster strikes.

Thirdly, the method employed in the Al-Azhar operation shows that success is not dependent on material resources or complex preparations. The likelihood is enhanced of such an incident happening again, dependent entirely and only on the desire and will of such individuals to carry out their plans.

Fourthly -- and most importantly -- individuality presupposes a psychology that recognises no authority as a guide to action. Face-to-face with their target, the chances of such a person backing down are slim to zero.

Random terrorism is not just dangerous because of the difficulties involved in predicting its occurrence, but the problems involved in eliminating its causes. It moves in tandem with developments in the region, whether the volatile dynamic of Arab societies or the unprecedented interaction between the local and global in regional politics.

Extracting the thorn of random terrorism requires much more than over-enthusiastic interrogations and the rounding up suspects to deter potential attackers. The root causes of such acts must be addressed; solutions whose success is linked to the ability of the region's regimes to open up and listen to their own people as hard as they listen to the outside world.

This week's Soapbox speaker is an Egyptian writer and political analyst.