Election jitters

Vulnerable Fatah backbenchers are pushing for a postponement of the Palestinian parliamentary elections, reports Khaled Amayreh from the West Bank

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Hundreds of Palestinian demonstrators raise photographs of their relatives held in Israeli jails during a rally in Ramallah marking Palestinian Prisoner Day on Sunday

An acrimonious debate is taking place within the Fatah movement over the organisation of parliamentary elections in the occupied territories this summer.

Fatah leaders occupying key positions in the PA, including President Mahmoud Abbas and Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei, have said that they would like to see the elections take place on time, irrespective of whether Fatah would perform well at the polls.

Abbas, Qurei and their allies calculate that a postponement of the elections would undermine PA commitment to democratic reforms and further corrode Fatah's credibility in the eyes of the Palestinian public.

Moreover, a postponement would fly in the face of the agreements and understandings reached in Cairo last month between the PA leadership and opposition factions, in particular with the powerful Islamic group, Hamas.

However, such considerations don't seem to mean much to the bulk of Fatah deputies at the Legislative Council, who, some Palestinian commentators suggest, are worried that they won't be re-elected and that Hamas, one way or another will win the elections.

Fatah law-maker Hatem Abdul-Qader, a leading advocate of postponing the elections, says a delay of a few weeks or even a few months would be good for the Palestinian people. In an interview with Al-Ahram Weekly, Abdul-Qader denied that any postponement would be motivated by political considerations, insisting that "it has only to do with procedural matters."

Asked why the Fatah-controlled council was dragging its feet in passing the amended election law, Abdul-Qader accused the "executive authority" of not agreeing to the "repeated proposals of the council". He added, "the executive branch of the Palestinian Authority is responsible for the de facto postponement. Mahmoud Abbas wants to postpone the elections, but is trying to blame the law-makers for postponement."

Abdul-Qader was alluding to differences with Abbas over the so-called "mixed system" where half of the parliament's deputies are elected at the national level in accordance with a party- ticket system while the other half are elected regionally within their respective electoral districts.

Abbas, who has vowed to hold the elections on time, is in favour of making the entire West Bank, Gaza Strip and East Jerusalem one electoral district. In this position, he is supported by a majority of veteran Fatah leaders who rely more on their "status within the movement" than on specific constituencies within certain electoral districts.

Fatah backbenchers, however, are reluctant to accept this proposal, which itself was tabled as a compromise, in fear that Hamas would benefit most from such a system. Hamas says it doesn't object to the adoption of any electoral system as long as it leads to the organisation of credible and transparent elections that would enable the Palestinian masses to freely elect their representatives.

The Islamic movement suspects Fatah of foul- play and of not acting in good faith. This was the view expressed by Hamas's spokesman in the Gaza Strip, Mahmoud Al-Zahar, in an interview with the Weekly this week. Al-Zahar accused "certain elements" within Fatah of "giving their own selfish interests precedence over the paramount interests of the Palestinian people." He added, "they are afraid they will lose their privileges and grip on power, this is why they want to postpone the elections for as long as possible."

Al-Zahar pointed out that he had been assured by Mahmoud Abbas that the elections would be held on 17 July. He added, nonetheless, that he was not sure Abbas would be able to overrule "the strong opposition" within Fatah to holding the elections on time.

Al-Zahar also warned that the "Palestinian masses" would not allow "a flagrant postponement" to pass quietly. "I believe the masses need to send a clear message to those irresponsible and self-serving people that the vital interests of the Palestinian people cannot be entrusted to the whims and personal calculations of a few power-hungry and money-grabbing careerists."

Hamas leaders in the Gaza Strip have assured the international community that the postponement of the elections would not constitute the end of the de facto ceasefire with Israel. "There is no linkage between the two issues," said Hamas spokesman in Gaza, Sami Abu Zuhri.

Some Fatah leaders in favour of postponing the elections cite the planned Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip a week or so prior to 17 July, the designated date for the elections. However, reports that Israel may postpone the implementation of the withdrawal from Gaza by three weeks will likely pull the carpet from under that argument.

Palestinian analysts believe that Fatah's attempts to postpone the elections stem first and foremost from considerations of "political expediency". "I know and everybody knows that many Fatah MPs want to remain in their jobs as long as possible. They are simply worried that the organisation of elections would send them packing," Hani Al- Masri, a prominent Palestinian columnist and current affairs commentator told the Weekly.

He described apprehensions about Hamas's prospects of a sweeping win as "exaggerated" and "misplaced". "The organisation of the elections on time is a national imperative that should not be tampered with because of political and factional considerations. If Hamas is going to win, so be it, this is the nature of democracy."