Redefining Hizbullah

As the Lebanese political map is redrawn, shifts in Hizbullah's direction grow increasingly imminent, writes Serene Assir

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No post-war Lebanese political crisis, it seems, is complete without a Hizbullah-centred controversy, and today's tensions are no exception. International media, and indeed, various local and regional political players, have condemned Lebanon to being eternally split down the middle -- equally, though never in the same way. This time around, Hizbullah's place has been deemed to fall on the side of pro-Syrian forces.

But nothing in Lebanon is ever really as simple as it seems. While the opposition seized the spotlight last week amidst high profile events in downtown Beirut celebrating "national unity", thousands of Hizbullah supporters descended on Okeil, near the United States' Embassy in Lebanon.

The demonstration, staged last Tuesday in protest against potential and real US intervention in Lebanese politics, received very little attention from the Lebanese media -- except, of course, from Hizbullah's very own television channel, Al-Manar. Like downtown Beirut, Okeil was dressed in the colours of the Lebanese flag. So, confusingly enough, while Lebanon was in the Martyrs' Square -- the mainstay of the opposition -- Lebanon was also, it seems, at Okeil.

Speaking to Al-Ahram Weekly, Nawwaf Al-Mousawi, Hizbullah's director for international relations, insisted that the party's main concern is, and has been for years, the maintenance of Lebanese unity. "I feel we should respond to recent events with the creation of a plan which suits us all politically, given the new reality," he said, referring to the recent Syrian decision to pull out its forces and intelligence bodies from Lebanon.

For Hizbullah chief Hassan Nasrallah, according to an interview given to Le Monde, the party was not opposed to a Syrian pullout, which was, he said, bound to happen "sooner or later". What he did find problematic was the speed and the circumstances under which the Syrians departed, leaving behind a "political vacuum" and hinting at what the Shia party perceives as US interference in Lebanon works.

A young Hizbullah supporter told the Weekly on condition of anonymity that "with the Syrian pullout, it becomes obvious who killed Rafiq Al-Hariri. The US was behind it all. They are the only ones who gained from his death, for they have finally managed to start implementing old policy goals in the region, including turning Lebanon into a key political and strategic base and expelling the Syrians from here."

Hence the demonstration at Okeil. As for relations between Hizbullah and the opposition movement, Al-Mousawi emphasised that, from his party's point of view, there is no real intra-Lebanese division to speak of. "Look, there was an attempt by the United States and Israel to create fitna (sedition) within Lebanon," he said. "The idea was to split the country into two halves -- one composed of majority Shias, and the other composed of mainly Christians and Sunnis. But thank God, such fitna has not occurred, and they have not been successful. Inter- sectarian relations are actually very good, and there is much cooperation across the board."

Indeed, recent political shifts have occurred on the Lebanese arena which indicate that the shape of the country could well change, yet again, with the potential forging of some kind of rapprochement between Hizbullah and Walid Jumblatt's Progressive Socialist faction, composed mainly of Druze.

This possibility emerged in light of Jumblatt's trip last week to Haret Hreik in southern Beirut to visit Nasrallah, and was underlined by Al-Mousawi's emphasis on his approval of Jumblatt's attempts to reform the very foundations of Lebanese politics and implement the Taif Accords to their full potential. It was also hinted at in the Druze leader's interview with the Weekly, during which he insisted that he -- unlike various other key players in the opposition-- would not push Hizbullah to disarm.

Amidst international and local pressure on Hizbullah to fully integrate into the Lebanese political mainstream and to cease all military activity along the southern border with Israel, the question as to whether the party will disarm remains central. The debate will determine how far there will be agreement and unity between this resistance movement-cum-political party and the more rightist elements in the country's political make-up.

In their public discourse, Hizbullah leaders are clear on their intentions. "No Lebanese who is not part of some aspect or another of the American-Israeli agenda is pressuring us to disarm," Al-Mousawi told the Weekly. "It is up to the Lebanese to honestly ask themselves how we would defend ourselves from Israeli acts of aggression in the south if Hizbullah were to disarm."

For Nasrallah, it was on such questions that the Syrian method of involving itself in Lebanese politics came in handy. What he describes as a "dissuasive" role can be translated into a clear effort to keep the resistance element of Hizbullah active, and at the same time protected by Lebanese post-war governments. Ironically enough, it was former prime minister Rafiq Al-Hariri who frequently justified the role of Hizbullah in defending the southern Lebanese border at meetings with high-level US officials.

If the truth be told, the Syrian pullout does not in itself constitute any change with profound implications for Lebanon. Instead, the coming weeks and months are sure to define a new Syrian-Israeli balance of interests, and it is that which will decide the final shape of Hizbullah as a political force to be reckoned with in Lebanon. Hizbullah has fought what politically constitutes a proxy war for the liberation of the Shebaa Farms -- a 20km territory which both Syrians and Lebanese claim to own, but which has remained Israeli-occupied following the May 2000 Israeli pullout from South Lebanon.

Nasrallah insists that the liberation of Shebaa is not Hizbullah's only goal as a resistance movement. He says the party is also involved in the "defence" of Lebanon from a potentially aggressive Israel, which is essentially founded on "militarism" and "terror".

But it remains to be seen how far the party and its supporters will go without rethinking its strategy and joining the Lebanese political fold. It also risks going too far and alienating Lebanese public opinion, on which it has also counted -- aside from Syrian political support -- following the Israeli withdrawal from the south.

"You'll see, elections will happen soon," Al-Mousawi told the Weekly. "Of course that cannot happen before a government has been formed, but they will be held. And they will be the key to true national unity. What America seeks now -- the destabilisation of the Syrian regime via influence in and action from Lebanon -- is what we oppose."