Still dark outside

Egypt's constitutional referendum didn't seem to have made things any clearer as far as Arab commentators were concerned, says Rasha Saad

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The pros and cons of last week's nationwide referendum on election reform intended to open the way for Egypt's first multi-candidate presidential elections, was the focus of "pluralism and power rotation in Egypt", by Abdullah Iskandar in the London-based Al-Hayat. Iskandar said the controversy over the nature of the constitutional amendment will not end with the referendum and that "rationing" the right to run for the presidency will further sharpen the opposition, since it is limited to those who are able to gather signatures of elected MPs, the majority belonging to the ruling party. "This deprives any serious candidate of the opportunity of competing for the presidency."

According to Iskandar, the direct popular vote lost its meaning given that the ruling party controls the appointment and the members of public bodies. "Consequently, the ruling party selects its candidates as well as the contenders."

Iskandar argues that if the target of those who set up the constitution was to encourage independent figures to engage in politics and seek decision-making posts, "then the constitutional amendment would have required an uncontested popular majority; not a majority stemming from elected bodies." More importantly, Iskandar believes all contenders for the presidency would be equal before the constitution, in candidature, electoral campaign and ballot. None of them, including the president and the majority leader, would be given any special privileges. "This is what pluralism and rotation of authority implies. In any case, the situation will continue to spin within the same vicious circle."

Iskandar charges that the whole issue is connected to the ruling National Democratic Party. "The situation basically cancels out the repeated statements of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak about broadening participation. In addition, it constitutes a lethal setback to democracy, that was supposed to be safeguarded and enhanced by the amendment, as the Egyptian president asserted."

Abdul-Rahman Al-Rashed in the London-based Asharq Al-Awsat wished that the referendum would not have taken place since it was boycotted by the opposition. "If the amendment does not enjoy the approval of all political forces it will remain a source of political upheaval rather than stability."

Al-Rashed also pointed out that contrary to expectations, the referendum backfired. Instead of highlighting democratic developments, the referendum, which most observers including foreign ones described as incomplete, put the Egyptian regime back to square one after it was portrayed as monopolising power and crushing opposition.

"I am sure that many Egyptians will re-elect President Mubarak if there is a free political atmosphere that allows the opposition to engage in real competition," Al-Rashed wrote. According to him, despite his wide-ranging powers, President Mubarak is more patient and lenient than his predecessors and even with those who would run against him. Al-Rashed also rules out the presence of any significant figure in the current political scene that Egyptians can elect instead of Mubarak. These factors, according to Al-Rashed, guarantee Mubarak at least the necessary majority, 51 per cent of the vote.

Still, Al-Rashed advises President Mubarak to realise political reform during his rule, not after. "Developing the Egyptian system into a real parliamentary system, the formation of a government that represents the people, transparency, accountability and freedom are all the best heritage President Mubarak can leave in his last term. By doing this he will guarantee Egypt a prosperous future and himself a significant place in history."

In his article Al-Rashed explains the reason why whatever happens in Egypt is of special significance to all Arabs. According to him, Egypt is a heavyweight in the region that often sets the roadmap for the rest of the Middle East. He added that Egyptians might not feel the weight of their country as much as Arabs do. It has an overwhelming effect on the whole region being in the heart of the Arab world with a huge population and cultural influence that spreads throughout. "Egypt needs Egyptians, whether inside the regime or in the opposition, to cooperate in setting up a system that does not leak," Al-Rashed said.

Commenting on reports of attacks on reporters and the sexual harassment of three women by supporters of the regime during the referendum, Selim Azouz described the day as "black Wednesday". In an article published in the London-based Al-Quds Al-Arabi, known for its outspoken criticism of the Egyptian government, Azouz wrote, "the Egyptian regime has crossed all red lines and turned the streets of Cairo into an Abu Ghraib prison." Azouz also demanded that the Arabs apologise to the Americans because, he argues, what supporters of the ruling party did under the eyes of security forces and in the open surpassed what the Americans did in closed prisons.

Azouz laments that today's government had set a precedent. "History does not record any similar harassment by occupation forces in Egypt before the 1952 Revolution despite the fact that women participated in many anti-occupation demonstrations."

Focussing on the winds of electoral change, the United Arab Emirates newspaper Al-Bayan wrote that the entire region is in the throes of elections from Iraq to Iran and passing through Egypt, Lebanon and Palestine. With some elections due and others still in the making, with some new to the experience and others who are veterans, all of the polls are similar in some aspects, the most notable being that they took place either under foreign or domestic pressure or both. The newspaper said "elections have been held or will take place according to tailored mechanisms and laws that stripped them of a lot of substance."

However, the newspaper sees a bright side. "If democracy, of which elections are definitely a sign, is an cumulative exercise then we do not exaggerate if we say that this current season of elections is not only a positive and promising sign but also a workshop of reform."

The newspaper sees this process as a path of no return because changes and pressure on the region do not allow for any turning back. "The world is moving forward at a very high speed. To catch up is a condition for survival."