Not really different

As they go to their respective voting booths, Lebanon and Iran appear to have much in common. Rasha Saad observes the electoral coverage

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Presidential elections in Iran tomorrow and the fourth and final phase of parliamentary elections in Lebanon on Sunday are both being held in similar circumstances, says the Saudi Arabian newspaper Al-Riyadh.

In both countries elections are being staged amidst a new atmosphere and popular criticism. Al-Riyadh hoped that the elections would be "the beginning of the road for more wide-ranging popular participation".

The newspaper rejected foreign intervention in either poll. Indirectly referring to the US, it criticised "superpowers" for "predetermined judgements".

"According to these powers, Iranian elections are forged even before they are held and the candidates are potential suspects... In Lebanon every crisis is created by a foreign instigator and Syria is the source of all evil," Al-Riyadh wrote.

The newspaper warned in its editorial that it is not in the interest of the Lebanese to exaggerate the situation or to accuse outside players of every incident that happens in their country without any verification or proof. It also warned the Lebanese not to depend on "the superpowers" as their savior from imaginary threats.

In the London-based Al-Hayat Abdullah Iskandar pointed to three main issues that will face the next ruling body in Lebanon and which will dominate the political life in the country for a considerable period "especially if as projected the current opposition gets a parliamentary majority that would enable it to form the next government and implement the slogans it chanted throughout the electoral campaign."

According to Iskandar, the first issue is the fate of President Emile Lahoud who is accused of covering up the activities that the opposition had been criticising. Secondly, Iskandar wrote, the Lebanese-Syrian relationship will be on the table, keeping in mind that it should be "distinctive" according to the constitution. The third issue is that of Hizbullah arms in light of UN Security Council Resolution 1559 that stipulates that Hizbullah must lay down its weapons. A related topic is arms in Palestinian camps as specified in the Taif agreement.

The degree to which these issues are to be dealt with are linked to the electoral victory of the opposition in Mount Lebanon, the Bekaa and the north and to the extent they would be prevented from controlling a third of the parliament. It is for this reason, Iskandar argues, that observers are giving particular attention to the results of the concerned districts "because they will specify the actual political weight of all parties". At the same time they will indicate the nature of the upcoming struggle and the attempt to find alternative ways to co-exist internally and to stop the deterioration in relations with Syria.

Hala Waziri and Bahman Bakhtiari wrote in the United Arab Emirates newspaper Al-Ittihad on the challenges facing the new Iranian president. The writers believe that Ali Hashemi Rafsanjani is the front-runner among the presidential candidates, attributing their choice to the fact that Rafsanjani, given his pragmatic sense despite a revolutionary background, is more daring than his rivals when it comes to liberalising the economy, settling the nuclear dispute with the West and normalising relations with Washington.

The writers argue that the re-emergence of Rafsanjani -- who was president in the 1980s -- on the political scene generated a mixture of concern and cautious optimism in both Iran and the West.

Rafsanjani, who is regarded by both his supporters and rivals as an "ideological chameleon" will face difficulties -- if elected tomorrow -- in dealing with the conservative majority in the Iranian parliament which does not sympathise with his ideological flexibility.

Waziri and Bakhtiari wrote that Iran's internal and regional conditions are different than they were during the 1990s when the reformist movement was in power and Iran was not regarded as part of the axis of evil. Now the conservatives have regained power and some in the Bush administration are calling for regime change.

Despite the fact that the Iranian system is based on the religious theology, velayat al-faqih (rule of clergymen), it also established mechanisms for popular participation in the decision-making process. This contradiction, which according to the writers, guaranteed the survival of the Islamic Republic, has been a source of ongoing national debate. "We find the Iranians baffled over whether to vote in the elections or boycott. This is because they see that none of their leaders admit that the reason behind the failure of previous governments to find a solution to their problems was because these governments did not have elected representatives of the people," they wrote.

Abdul-Wahab Badrakhan in the London-based Al-Hayat newspaper said Iranian-US relations was a challenge for the next Iranian president. "Opening a dialogue with the US is one of the most important issues facing the presidential elections in Iran." According to Badrakhan, it is certain that Rafsanjani will succeed President Mohamed Khatami. Providing background material on Iranian attempts to establish a dialogue with the US, Badrakhan wrote that Rafsanjani had previously established a programme for partnership with the Americans which the US thwarted and closed its window of opportunity. They dealt with Khatami in the same manner, according to Badrakhan, "which reflects the fact that Washington lacks a plan to normalise its relations with Tehran, preferring to wage a cold war with the Persian state."

Badrakhan added that before the current nuclear saga, the Iranian nuclear issue was never discussed but that "the attempts at a dialogue did not succeed because American conditions were unrealistic." Badrakhan wrote that Zionist American diplomacy had greatly harmed Iranian-American relations instead of working towards normalising bilateral ties.

"Now the issue has become more complicated, with the presence of American forces alongside an effective Iranian influence in Iraq and the insistence of Hizbullah that the resistance will not disarm as long as Iran and Syria are being threatened, either by the Americans or Israelis."

Badrakhan claims that the US has no clear policy towards Iran and Syria, as there is no American acknowledgment as to what the two countries represent in the region. "Yet there are American demands, and more demands, and American conditions and more conditions, all in return for naught."

According to Badrakhan, it is not clear whether the Americans have a plan for starting a dialogue with Iran. "It is also not clear how the Americans plan to circumvent the dangers posed by Iran's nuclear programme without compromising the Iranian dream of attaining a nuclear arsenal. Depending on the Europeans for an Iranian nuclear programme is nothing more than a sham," Badrakhan argues.