Post-Gaza prospects

The road to reform is through peace, writes Ibrahim Nafie

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In recent days Cairo has been at the centre of hectic diplomatic efforts. Before Israel withdraws from Gaza Egypt wanted to ensure the redeployment be as a step on the roadmap. Cairo is also concerned with reform, the US- UK presence in Iraq and the situation in Sudan.

The bulk of Egypt's diplomatic efforts, though, have focussed on Palestine, with Omar Suleiman visiting the Palestinian territories and Israel, followed by Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul-Gheit. Then Israel's Deputy Prime Minister Shimon Peres came to Sharm El-Sheikh for talks with President Hosni Mubarak.

The Palestinian issue was high on the agenda during Condoleezza Rice's regional tour of the Palestinian territories, Israel, Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. The Arabs maintain that Israel's continued occupation of Arab land is a major impediment to reform. Speaking at the Davos Forum in Jordan last month, Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa discounted reports of a spring of democracy in the Arab world. "There will be no spring or autumn before the Palestinian issue is resolved," he said.

Israel's continued occupation of Arab land feeds extremism in the Arab world. Fanatics use the occupation to rally support, a process that impedes democratisation.

This is why Cairo is so interested in the Gaza withdrawal and wants that withdrawal, and the dismantling of four north West Bank settlements to be part of the roadmap. Egypt wants Sharon's unilateral disengagement to be coordinated with the Palestinian Authority which is why Egypt is engaging the Palestinians, Israelis and the Americans in dialogue.

Cairo hosted a dialogue among Palestinian factions and the period of calm the Palestinians subsequently announced should help entice the Israelis to reciprocate. In Sharm El-Sheikh Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon participated in talks for the first time with Egyptian and Jordanian officials. Egypt helped resolve differences between Fatah and Hamas following the Palestinian municipal elections. Hamas had asked Cairo to help sort out differences with Fatah, a move that underlines the trust Palestinians have for Egypt.

Egypt has been encouraging Sharon's government to coordinate its withdrawal from Gaza with Palestinian officials and has invited several Israeli delegations for talks. Cairo is also trying to get Washington to resume its peace efforts. Now that no one can claim that no Palestinian partner exists a US role is sorely needed. Egyptian diplomats have been in touch with the Americans, urging them to pressure Israel abide by the roadmap and commitments made in Sharm El-Sheikh.

Egypt's efforts have been successful so far. There is calm between the Palestinians and the Israelis, and both sides have reason to hope for comprehensive peace. Palestinian factions have toned down their rhetoric while Israeli public opinion seems increasingly in favour of the Gaza withdrawal and the dismantling of settlements. Settlers refusing to evacuate are now viewed as a threat to the future of Israel.

The outline of a political process is taking shape. Israel has agreed to coordinate its withdrawal from Gaza -- and the dismantling of four north West Bank settlements -- with the Palestinians. All buildings evacuated in the Gaza settlements will be destroyed so that Palestinians can use the land for much-needed housing projects. And the withdrawal is beginning to be perceived as part of the roadmap.

The US administration is also starting to move away from its position in the letter of guarantees Bush offered to Sharon in April 2004. The US president, his secretary of state and other officials are speaking firmly against Israeli attempts to build or expand settlements in the West Bank. As a result any change in Palestinian-Israeli borders is likely to occur through agreement between the two sides.

Mahmoud Abbas and Sharon held their first one-on-one talks in West Jerusalem last Tuesday. The talks focussed on the details of withdrawal from Gaza and several cities in the West Bank, in line with commitments made in Sharm El-Sheikh. The two men also discussed Palestinians detained in Israeli prisons.

The Abbas-Sharon meeting revived channels of communications between the two concerning arrangements for Israel's withdrawal. But the road ahead is far from easy. Israel will procrastinate and try to divide the Palestinians. The Palestinians must, then, coordinate their actions and give Israel no pretext to renege.

Peace in the post-Gaza phase will need US involvement. Progress so far has been the outcome of intensive diplomatic efforts by all, including the Americans. The success of efforts aimed at resolving the Palestinian issue will remove a major obstacle facing reform in the Arab world, something we should all keep in mind.

Much attention was given to reform during Condoleezza Rice's tour of the region. Even before she arrived she said the US administration expected Egypt to hold free and transparent presidential elections. Echoing President Bush, Rice said that Egypt should spearhead democratisation just as it had spearheaded peace. No one expects Egypt to act otherwise, replied Foreign Minister Abul Gheit.

Egypt has begun a process of real reform. It is an inevitable and irreversible process and Egypt is open to dialogue and is willing to listen. But Egypt must strike a balance between reform on the one hand and security and stability on the other. Egypt is doing much. It has launched a process of change and is eager to go further.

But let me say this: reform must be gauged according to its outcome and fruits, and not according to how the people are pleased about it at home or abroad. I can assure you that the coming elections in Egypt -- presidential and parliamentary -- will be fair, free, and transparent. The ongoing political reform is just one part of an on-going process of comprehensive reform. This process cannot be reduced to one aspect alone, nor can its pace be adjusted to please others. This process has been launched in Egypt's interest and for purely national reasons.