Plot thickens

As the probe into John Garang's helicopter crash heats up, Khartoum appears more realistic about the insecurities of the southern Sudanese, writes Gamal Nkrumah

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The late Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) leader John Garang's helicopter crash on 30 July sparked riots in Khartoum and across the country that left 130 dead. Be that as it may, Salva Kiir -- his chosen successor -- was sworn in as first vice-president on Thursday, 11 August. Kiir promised to "strengthen social cohesion through the proper understanding of the dynamics of unity."

Kiir impressed his listeners. He said it was important that the momentum does not tail off. It was a scorching hot day as the crowd made its way down to witness the ceremony. But, the numbers were noticeably far fewer than when John Garang took to the podium three weeks ago. Time has vindicated Garang's vision of a united Sudan, he said. Many southern Sudanese believe Garang's untimely death to be an unbearable injustice.

The United States dispatched senior investigators from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) to probe Garang's helicopter crash. The Ugandans, Kenyans and Sudanese are also involved in the probe. Public opinion in the entire region is very curious about the result. Uganda's President Yoweri Museveni ordered a radio station closed because of its speculation about the nature of Garang's chopper crash.

Meanwhile, Garang's body arrived in Juba, his final resting place after being taken to a number of garrison towns in southern Sudan including Bor, Rumbek and Yei. SPLA fighters and members of the Khartoum-based elite Sudanese government special forces guarded the airport and the area of the burial ceremonies.

A direct challenge to Kiir comes from fringe groups such as Paulino Matip's South Sudan Defence Force (SSDF). To placate them, Kiir is promising to strive for the full implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) signed on 9 January between the SPLA and the Sudanese government.

Kiir, a military man, must learn that business is not all about battle. It is the politics of persuasion he so desperately needs now. Many southern Sudanese believe breaking away is the only way forward for Southern Sudan. Kiir cautions calm and composure. This is not the sole responsibility of leaders, but of the rank and file and the people of Southern Sudan.

Once the novelty of living without Garang as leader wears off, and as the expectations of southerners rise once again, prospects for a united Sudan will hopefully soar. It is far too soon to write off Kiir or cast him as a lame duck Southern Sudanese leader, as some detractors predict. Kiir challenged critics when he said that he was committed to "making the unity of Sudan attractive to the people of Southern Sudan".

What Kiir has not yet done is make headway on courting non-SPLA Southern Sudanese factions. They must not remain outside the political fray. Non-SPLA factions and armed opposition groups in Darfur and eastern Sudan all want a stake in the Sudanese pie. Even if they did agree on a mutually acceptable sequence of disarmament and rewards, the US and Sudan remain wide apart on the question of verification.

Republican Congressman Chris Smith, who chairs the House International Relations Committee's panel on Africa and human rights, embarked on a tour of Ethiopia and Sudan 14-21 August. Washington remains the main arbitrator in disparate Sudanese conflicts. Indeed, the rapprochement with Washington gives the regime in Khartoum much of its legitimacy.

Kiir, meanwhile, renewed his allegiance to Sudanese President Omar Hassan Al-Beshir. "I shall be remiss if I conclude this address without paying tribute to you, Mr President, for the excellent working relationship you had established with the late Dr John Garang. My commitment to having such a relationship shall not be less than that of our late leader," Kiir said. "The people of Sudan expect a lot from the institution of the presidency, and we should live up to their expectations."

Like others, however, Kiir remains hostage to events on the ground. "Much as I am honoured by taking the path of office today, this day shall also remain engraved in my mind as one of the saddest," Kiir confessed. The wars in Darfur, eastern Sudan and the south are rooted in specific political grievances. The peace process also means addressing such grievances. Kiir does not need to bring all refugees home next year. But he does need to show that a process is underway that will lead to this conclusion. Humanitarian assistance is vitally important in a nation with one of the world's largest refugee and displaced people caseload.

Under vast economic and social constraints, it is not certain that a conflict resolution approach will bear fruit. The battle for a new Sudan will be shaped by three factors. First, the political will of southern Sudanese to stick to the tenets of the CPA. Second, the degree to which fissures in the SPLA, that would make imposing party discipline difficult, can be managed. Third, the prospect of Sudanese opposition groups opposed to the government of national reconciliation -- like the militant Islamist Popular Congress Party and the Umma Party -- feeling short on ideas and falling back on pure opposition politics.

Leaders across Africa hope that Kiir will bring calm to the affairs of Southern Sudan. All eyes await, however, the results of the probe into Garang's helicopter crash. The Sudanese national reconciliation cabinet and autonomous government in Southern Sudan were scheduled to be installed 9 August. African and world leaders are urging the Sudanese, southern and northern, to stick to the spirit of the CPA. If any surprises, however, are to emerge from the air crash probe, peace in Sudan would at best be wildcard bet.