Another succession?

With Libya gearing up for revolution celebrations today, Tripoli seems to be turning against its own past, reports Rasha Saad

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A few days before the 36th anniversary of Al-Thawra Al-Fateh -- the "anniversary of the victorious", or the 1969 coup d'etat in Libya-- Seif Al-Islam, chairman of the Gaddafi International Foundation for Charity Associations and son of the Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, spoke of a different Libya. During a reception introducing his foundation's activities last Monday, Seif Al-Islam surprised Libyans, and perhaps observers the world over, by addressing the need of compensating persons harmed by the government and revolutionary courts, the latter that he described as illegal.

The message behind Seif Al-Islam's announcement of the reform agenda did not pass unnoticed. Since its establishment, the activities in which Gaddafi's foundation has been involved in gave Seif Al-Islam a high profile that made many observers believe that he is being groomed for succession. Indeed, on many domestic and foreign policy issues, Seif Al-Islam has become the unofficial spokesman for the incumbent regime. His father is quite happy to take a back seat.

In his speech, Seif Al-Islam said that the Libyan government would release 131 political detainees, including members of the banned Muslim Brothers group, soon into September. He indicated that dialogue held with members of the Islamic organisations in prison achieved tangible results, changing the convictions and ideas of many of them, adding that the delay in releasing the detainees was only a result of security procedures.

Seif Al-Islam's words were cautiously welcomed, some describing them as "remarkable admissions". According to Fahmi Howeidi, an Egyptian political analyst, "the signs coming out of Tripoli and calling out for national reconciliation are very significant and indicate a political breakthrough." Why would anyone be cautious? For analysts, admitting mistakes of the past is a positive step but should not be the last.

According to critics, Libya should resolve its problems with its own citizens and a comprehensive national reconciliation is needed between the regime and those who have suffered under it, local committees, revolutionary courts and treason committees that killed many inside and outside of Libya. These bodies should cease to exist.

Suspicions are that this initiative in essence is directed to Western capitals, mainly Washington, and not to Libyans. Intensifying these qualms is the context that Seif Al-Islam's initiative was revealed during a two-day visit to Tripoli of US Senator Richard Lugar. Senator Lugar confirmed the US was discussing both Libya's removal from a State Department list of alleged state sponsors of terrorism and the opening of an embassy in Tripoli.

In recent years, many Arab capitals have been criticised for introducing political reform agendas with the aim of appeasing Washington rather than satisfying their own people. In this context, Libya is not regarded as an exception.

Al-Fateh celebrations come this year as the Libyan leader, fearing the same fate as Saddam Hussein, vies to reach out to Washington after many years of attacking Arab states verbally, rebuking them for their "incapacity" to face up to the US hegemony. During Senator Lugar's visit, Gaddafi has even extended an invitation to President George W Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to visit Tripoli.

Libya's relations to the West started to improve after it accepted responsibility in 2003 for the 1988 bombing of a Pan Am jet over Lockerbie, Scotland, agreeing to pay $2.7 billion in compensation. Washington strengthened its diplomatic representation in Tripoli after President George W Bush formally ended the US trade embargo on Libya in September last year as a reward for giving up its weapons of mass destruction programme. In June 2004, the US opened a liaison office -- a low-level diplomatic post -- in Tripoli, though US sanctions relating to terrorism are still in effect.

Libya's presence on the terrorism list bars it from receiving US arms exports, controls sales of items with possible military as well as civilian uses (so-called "duel use"), limits US aid and requires Washington to vote against loans from international financial institutions.

During Senator Lugar's visit, State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said that while relations between the countries have been "dramatically different" since 2003, Libya still has more to do. "We are engaged with them on a variety of issues. You mentioned human rights, you mentioned democracy, you mentioned issues of terrorism," he said. "If they continue to make progress along the pathway that we have laid out, we, again, will meet their acts of good faith in return," he added.

According to political analyst Khaled Al-Dakhil, the timing of Al-Fateh celebrations coinciding shortly after Senator Lugar's visit brings to mind a host of demands that the US asked of Libya after settlement of the Lockerbie issue. For Al-Dakhil, Seif Al-Islam's words were not surprising but rather the culmination of a series of measures to appease the US.

Al-Dakhil explained that the first US demand was dismantling the programme of weapons of mass destruction. This demand, according to Al-Dakhil, was carried through by the Libyan leader himself. The second demand made by the US, Al-Dakhil believes, is that of political reform -- a mission that Gaddafi seems to be leaving for his son to handle.

Seif Al-Islam's foundation has been successfully involved in attempts to get Western hostages released in both the Philippines and Afghanistan. More recently it has been trying to fly out of Afghanistan Arab families caught up in the turmoil there. Seif Al-Islam's intervention has also secured vastly improved detention conditions for Bulgarian medical workers accused of infecting Libyan children with the virus that causes AIDS.

According to Howeidi, when Seif Al-Islam stated his initiative he was speaking in his capacity as Gaddafi's son, not as head of a charity foundation. Howeidi argues that such top- level proposals dealing with core issues of state policy are far beyond the remit of a charity foundation head. This all indicates, according to Howeidi, that "this reform plan is coming from Gaddafi himself but helps link Seif Al-Islam's image to the path of political breakthroughs, hence becomes an asset to him in his expected political future."

Al-Dakhil also believes that "with Seif Al-Islam playing the role of the reformer of the regime, it is a calculated political introduction to him succeeding his father in power."

Al-Dakhil argues that despite the reform flavour of Seif Al-Islam's speech, it only proves the fragility of the Libyan system that it resorted to political manoeuvring of this nature. "After 36 years of the revolution, Libyans are moving back to square one: to the Jamahirya of the Colonel and Popular Conferences -- but this time with an American cover."