Miscalculation leads to carnage

Last week Gaza became a pawn in power struggles taking place between Palestinians, and within the Likud, writes Ibrahim Nafie

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The Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, the Palestinians' sensible handling of this process and the success of Egyptian- Palestinian efforts at bringing the border situation under control following the withdrawal, combined to raise hopes that negotiations aimed at implementing the Roadmap would be resumed. Sadly, these hopes have been dashed. Instead we have witnessed a new wave of violence in the course of which Sharon has threatened to reinvade Gaza and Israeli forces have bombarded the strip and arrested dozens of Palestinian activists.

The renewed tensions are the product of a series of miscalculations on the part of both Israelis and Palestinians. I believe that the problems began when Hamas attempted to monopolise the field and present itself as the only Palestinian resistance organisation. Through various proclamations, victory demonstrations and the brandishing of arms, Hamas sought to parade itself as the party responsible for driving the Israelis out of Gaza, effectively denying any credit to the sacrifices of other Palestinian resistance forces. Then, in a display of bravado, it recommenced missile bombardment of areas inside Israel in spite of the Israeli warning that such actions would meet with harsh retaliation.

On the Israeli side Binyamin Netanyahu, a former minister of finance and prime minister, capitalised on these developments to remind the Israeli public of the stand he had taken against the disengagement which he had warned would transform Gaza into a Hamas base for mounting attacks against Israel. Netanyahu, of course, had an agenda of his own, which was to rally support for a motion he had tabled to bring forward the elections for the chairman of the Likud Party from April 2006 to November 2006. His plan failed. The proposal to bring forward the elections was put to a vote by the Likud Central Committee on Monday. Some 91.4 per cent of the central committee voted, with 1,433 votes against and 1,329 for the proposal. Netanyahu's campaign to replace Sharon as head of Likud has stalled, for the time being at least. Following Monday's vote he admitted to having lost this round but said there would be others. Now the Knesset debate on ratifying the government's budget is within his sights. Under Israeli law parliamentary elections must be brought forward if the budget has not been ratified by the end of March.

As Israeli forces escalated their assault on Gaza and rounded up Hamas members, including individuals who have announced they will stand as candidates in the forthcoming municipal and legislative elections, Hamas leaders announced that they would abide by the truce and halt parades and displays of arms. This positive step has come late. Hamas now appears to have caved in in the face of an Israeli onslaught that exacted a heavy toll on Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza.

Hamas's renewed commitment to the truce and Netanyahu's temporary setback may offer an opening to bring the situation back under control and work towards the resumption of negotiations for implementing the Roadmap. Nevertheless, the partisan and factional considerations that motivated camps on both sides have left a sour taste and raised suspicions that they will continue to undermine any progress made towards getting the peace process rolling again.

What is needed now is to revive the optimism that prevailed following the Israeli disengagement from Gaza. Towards this end the Palestinians must do their utmost not to play into the hands of the Israeli ultra-right which, spearheaded by Netanyahu, will avail itself of every opportunity to pressure the Israeli government to reoccupy Gaza. The PA and the Palestinian factions must remain committed to their mutual pledges with respect to the truce. In addition the factions -- Hamas above all -- must henceforth refrain from military displays and instead work with the PA as it performs the tasks necessary to generate a climate conducive to the resumption of negotiations for reviving the Roadmap.