Damage limitation

Egypt hopes to broker a deal to avoid destabilising the Syrian regime following the publication of the findings of the investigation into the death of Rafik Al-Hariri, reports Dina Ezzat

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Mubarak welcomes Al-Assad

It is not yet clear whether Detlev Mehlis, head of the international enquiry into the murder of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Al-Hariri, will seek an extension beyond the investigation's 25 October deadline. Whether he does or not, few believe that his final report will let Syria off the hook, and its ramifications will extend throughout the region.

On record Egyptian officials, like their counterparts elsewhere, insist they do not wish to prejudge the findings of the enquiry. Off the record they admit that things are not looking good for Syria.

This week Egyptian and other Arab officials were given clues that confirmed concerns voiced last week by Damascus that Mehlis's findings could well see Syria cornered. Informed sources say that while Mehlis has not uncovered any evidence that Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad directly ordered the killing of Al-Hariri some of his aides have been implicated.

Cairo has already been notified that the US, UK and France are already examining the possibility of legal and economic retaliation that might include Syrian officials standing trial before an international tribunal as well as economic and military sanctions.

"It is a very gloomy picture. Unfortunately we have been able to garner very little sympathy for Syria," commented one Egyptian official.

Official sources say that following last week's meeting between President Hosni Mubarak and his Syrian counterpart Cairo tested the waters by asking Paris to consider a compromise proposed by Syria under which Damascus would encourage Hizbullah in Lebanon, and militant resistance movements in Palestine, to engage more fully in the political process. Cairo also conveyed Syria's willingness to restart negotiations with Israel within a framework consistent with the terms of reference of the peace process to French Foreign Minister Phillipe Douste-Blazy during his recent visit to Cairo. The French reaction, say sources, was cool. While the French government "has full confidence in President Mubarak" it does not "have the same confidence in Mr Al-Assad".

Paris believes that Damascus has been involved in violent incidents in Lebanon other than the assassination of Al-Hariri, and more recently has had a hand in inciting Palestinians residing in Lebanon to sedition against the state.

In a joint press conference with Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul-Gheit in Cairo last Thursday Douste-Blazy said that France is not "interested in destablising any regime". In his talks with Egyptian officials, however, Douste-Blazy said it was up to Damascus to stabilise its regime by refraining from further attempts to destabilise Lebanon and by ending its incitement of Hizbullah and Palestinian militant movements.

The French position was echoed this week by a visiting American delegation including representatives of the US State Department, the Pentagon and the National Security Council. The Americans, however, added a further condition, demanding that Syria "stop inciting insurgency in Iraq".

According to US Ambassador Christopher Ross, from the US State Department for Iraqi Political Affairs, the US is pursuing "a change of behaviour and not a change of regime" in Syria. "Al-Assad has yielded action but insufficient action," Ross said.

Encouraging Syria to demonstrate the kind of commitment Washington and Paris are looking for is one of Cairo's key objectives. While Egyptian officials are loath to reveal any details of the deal they are attempting to put together to limit the fallout from the investigation it does, says one source, involve a "serious Syrian commitment to help promote stability in Lebanon and Iraq" and include provisions for the trial of any Syrian official indicted by the Mehlis report.

On Monday President Mubarak visited Saudi Arabia for talks with the Saudi King. "Both Egypt and Saudi Arabia can talk to Damascus in no uncertain terms," one Cairo- based Arab official said.

If Cairo and Riyadh are convinced that Damascus is committed to fulfilling its part of the bargain then the next step will be to send envoys to Washington and Paris.

While both Egypt and Saudi Arabia have hardly been at pains to conceal their impatience with what they view as Syrian miscalculation, both countries hope to finalise a compromise deal before Mehlis reports to the Security Council in three weeks time.