Focus Baghdad

Arab concern over Iraqi development is prompting governments to reach out, Dina Ezzat reports

---

In its first meeting, which took place in Jeddah on Sunday, the Arab Ministerial Committee on Iraq agreed that Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa will visit Baghdad within the coming days to encourage representatives of different Iraqi ethnic and religious groups seemingly poised on the edge of a fully-fledged civil war to participate in an all inclusive national reconciliation conference under the umbrella of the Arab League.

Moussa and the foreign ministers of Algeria (current chair of the Arab Summit), Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Syria convened in Jeddah for a four-hour candid meeting with their Iraqi counterpart, Hoshyar Zebari. The meeting discussed early and growing signs of civil war in Iraq, the upcoming vote on the Iraqi constitution that is widely eschewed by Arab Sunnis in Iraq, and the growing influence of Iran through the large Shia population in Iraq and influential Shia leaders.

In his opening statement before the committee and in a joint press conference he held with Moussa following the talks, Saudi Foreign Minister Saud Al-Faissal was explicit in stating the growing, and now openly expressed, concern of Arab countries that Iraq is being divided through a civil war that could move into the fast lane at any point.

Al-Faissal has been conducting intensive talks with Iraqi and US officials over the past few days, considering ways of patching Iraqi differences over the draft constitution that will be put to a referendum vote on 15 October. "What we are hoping for is a united and stable Iraq," Al-Faissal said. The current draft is criticised by leading Arab Sunni figures in Iraq -- and by several Arab capitals, particularly Riyadh -- for undermining the political and economic rights of Sunnis in Iraq, the considerable minority of the population, in favour of the Shia majority and US-backed Kurds.

Moussa told reporters that his visit to Iraq will "cover the entire country: its north and south, and its east and west". The mission, sources say, is not really related to the drafting of the constitution. "The mission is to spare Iraq from the civil war," one source said. This, he added, should entail an effort by which all Iraqis would bow to common interests and refrain from expressing differences by way of violent means. This should entail direct communication among all Iraqis in an atmosphere of reconciliation. The Saudi-proposed conference, for which no venue or date has been set, is meant to provide this environment.

Neither Al-Faissal nor Moussa specified whether Moussa's mission would precede the 15 October vote. However, Arab sources told Al-Ahram Weekly that it will probably be in the wake of the constitution vote "if it takes place on time". Assistant secretary-general of the Arab League, Ahmed Bin Heli will be sent by Moussa to Iraq as envoy within 10 days. Bin Heli's posting is meant to garner first reactions from representatives of the relevant Iraqi factions.

It is no secret that many factions, especially in the Shia and Kurdish quarters (not excluding Zebari himself), are not feeling particularly enthusiastic about accepting Arab state offers for reconciliatory conferences. These quarters hold Arab countries partly responsible for the long decades of misery under the rule of toppled Arab Sunni President Saddam Hussein. Today, they have no faith in the credibility of these countries, or their pan-Arab organisation, to broker a fair future. These quarters are more interested in having Arab investors in Iraq than having Arab politicians or even officers trying to stabilise the situation.

"We have serious problems with our Arab brethren. They condemn violence wherever it occurs, but not in Iraq," said a Cairo-based Iraqi diplomat. There is also the case of Syria, which is routinely accused by some Iraqi government members -- especially the foreign minister -- of inducing violence and instability into Iraq. Moussa, for his part, has previously suggested a reconciliation conference. His proposals were thwarted by Iraqi refusals. However, since the Saudi proposal for a reconciliation conference under the umbrella of the Arab League is being condoned by the US, it might happen this time.

Arab diplomats in Cairo say that times are changing; that the Americans are coming to see that they are stuck in Iraq, with little hope of containing the violence and proceeding with their alleged democratisation scheme. "Today, the US would entertain any idea that might help them. The US administration is coming under serious pressure from within to pull the US troops in Iraq out, and it is coming under pressure from within the region not to pull out before the situation is stabilised for fear of a full scale civil war with a spill-over effect," one source commented.

This week, a senior US diplomat held talks on Iraq with Moussa and senior Egyptian and Saudi officials. James Jefferey, senior adviser to the US secretary of state and coordinator for Iraq, tried to argue that the situation in Iraq is improving: "We are making progress... Most of Iraq is stable." Still, Jeffrey admitted that there are serious problems that merit careful attention. "This does not look anything like Bosnia," he said in answer to a question on signs of civil war in Iraq. He acknowledged, however, that there are manifestations of ethnic tension.

Typical of the official US line, Jeffrey made no reference to, or hint of, a potential date for the completion of the US mission in Iraq. However, he did make it clear that the US is looking to Arab advice and assistance on Iraq. Jeffrey arrived in Saudi Arabia in the wake of the Arab ministerial meeting.