Containing chaos

Egypt attempts to head off any crisis provoked by the international investigation into the death of Rafiq Al-Hariri

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Mubarak held talks with Jordanian King Abdullah and Bahraini monarch Hamad Ben Issa on Monday

Syria's minister commits suicide

Egyptian officials are making no secret of their growing unease over regional developments, reports Dina Ezzat. They express their concern in carefully-worded public statements and, speaking off the record, in far less equivocal terms. Ongoing worries over the Palestinian territories and Iraq are now being compounded by growing uncertainties over developments in Syria and Lebanon. The pessimism is palpable as, in the words of one diplomat, Egypt gets "ready for worse to come".

"We know the findings of the international investigation into the killing of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Al-Hariri could bring big problems in its wake. We are well aware that the findings may implicate Lebanese and Syrian security officials. Should this be the case the consequences are likely to be disturbing."

It is not just the result of the international investigation that is causing Egyptian officials to worry. Cairo has also been informed by the US that Damascus is continuing to interfere in Lebanese affairs in a way tailored to maintain Syrian control over its neighbour. Lebanese officials in contact with Cairo concur with the American assessment though they stress the last thing they want to see is Syria destabilised. The ensuing chaos will inevitably cross over into Lebanon.

US Undersecretary of State for Near East Affairs David Welch, in Cairo this week for talks with senior Egyptian officials, also conveyed Washington's dissatisfaction with what it claims is Syrian intervention in Iraq and incitement of militant Palestinian groups.

Following talks with President Hosni Mubarak on Sunday Welch said that while the US had been hoping for a change of behaviour rather than of regime in Syria "it appears the Syrians are not listening". It is now up to the Security Council, Welch added, to send the Syrians a strong message.

Egyptian diplomats, along with their Arab colleagues, believe imposing economic sanctions against Syria could undermine the regime to the extent that it begins to implode. This was the understanding reached during talks President Mubarak held last week in Saudi Arabia with King Abdullah Ben Abdel-Aziz, and subsequently, on Monday, in talks held in Cairo with Jordanian King Abdullah and Bahraini monarch Hamad Ben Issa.

Following Monday's three-way summit presidential spokesman Suliman Awad reaffirmed the growing determination, in Cairo and other Arab capitals, to oppose any unfair judgment of Syrian efforts to accommodate the concerns of the international community over its regional role. He stressed that Syria has been cooperating over Iraq, Lebanon and other issues and hinted that, as far as Egypt is concerned, Syria should be judged on the basis of its implementation of relevant UN Security Council resolutions on the killing of Hariri and developments in Iraq rather than by Washington's assessment of its role.

Cairo, though, is well aware that given the escalation in US rhetoric against Syria no one can exclude some form of US action against Damascus.

It is against this background that Cairo is encouraging Arab capitals to send a clear message to Washington warning against any moves that might cause further instability in the region, and to communicate their views to the wider international community. Egyptian diplomats say many Arab capitals -- irrespective of their reservations over Syria's actions -- have already responded favourably, though some countries are less forthcoming.

"It is to secure a unified Arab stance on this and other issues in the region that President Mubarak called for an Arab summit in the summer. Some Arab capitals, though, have expressed reluctance," said one Egyptian official.

Cairo remains hopeful that the summit will go ahead, particularly in light of reports of possible US military action against Syrian targets Washington alleges to be 'terror camps'. Yet many Arab states are dragging their feet.

"All we can say is that maybe after Ramadan the issue will be picked up again but then again it may not," comments one Egyptian official. "Convening a summit could be lent impetus by the early findings of the international investigation into the killing of Hariri, scheduled to report to the UN Security Council by the last week of this month.