Mission impossible?

Gamil Matar* examines the minefields Amr Moussa will have to negotiate in Iraq

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Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa said that his mission in Iraq would not only be tough but dangerous. He's right. Had the mission not been tough and dangerous other Arab leaders would have gone to Iraq before -- or at least with -- him. The prize for success is great. But the odds are terrible, and the price of failure could be immense.

This does not mean that some Arab countries have not been quietly working away on the sidelines. Jordanian officials have interceded repeatedly with Iraqi groups, with little success. Gulf states, too, have tried their hand. But most Arab countries, including those that can command the attention of Iraqi interlocutors, have stayed away for reasons of their own.

Moussa knows more than we do about the real position of Arab countries towards Iraq. He knows the details of recent US pressure on Arab countries to intervene. The Americans will have briefed him on their exchanges with senior Arab officials. He is also aware of the efforts of Lakhdar Ibrahimi, the UN secretary-general's special envoy whose mission was discontinued precisely because it was so difficult and dangerous. Moussa, in short, has no illusions.

Whatever you feel about the toppling of Saddam Hussein there is no denying that Iraq is only now passing through its darkest moments. The picture in Iraq is one of unadulterated horror. The Americans will have to provide the secretary-general with tight security during his visit. The sight of an Arab diplomat visiting under the protection of occupation forces is likely to rile many Iraqis. Not that that is going to be the worst part of the visit.

Iraq understands democracy as the right of the majority to ignore the rights of minorities. Moussa is the envoy of countries that embrace the same philosophy or, even worse, of Arab countries where the minority dominates and denies the majority its rights. Yet the secretary-general will have to talk the Kurds and Shiites into a new concept of democracy. This is not going to be easy. Nor will it be easy for Moussa to get the Shiites to understand that Arab officials will tolerate federal status for the Kurds but not for others. Federalism, in general, is not something of which Arab states approve, or are likely to do so anytime soon.

The image of Iraqi's Sunnis has suffered across the world. Many Arab writers have already warned of the country's descent into ethnic conflict, warnings that have gone unheeded. The secretary-general is aware, even as he flies into Iraq, that more vitriol will be directed against the Sunnis. There will be many attempts to link them with terror both inside and outside Iraq. This is unfair. Occupation is what brought terror to Iraq. Occupation is the problem, terror a side effect.

America wants Arab countries and the Arab League to persuade Sunnis to participate in the referendum on the constitution. Moussa will be attempting to do so while the Americans continue to bomb Sunni areas in central and western Iraq. The bombing, significantly, began only after Condoleezza Rice failed to reassure Sunni leaders about their future.

To defuse tensions a little the Americans have publicly opposed the restrictions some Iraqi officials are trying to impose on the participation of Sunnis in the referendum. The US wants the Arabs to help out in Iraq for the continuing debacle is undermining President Bush. The Americans want the Arabs to help with the problems the occupation has triggered and do something about terror and the dictatorship of the majority. And it is Moussa who is now expected to talk the Sunnis into joining the political game, albeit in a diminished capacity. Should he fail things may well get worse for Iraq's Sunni community, and worse for neighbouring Arab states.

Moussa knows his ill-defined mission to Iraq is one in which Secretary Rice -- with her clout -- has already failed. Having acted on the erroneous advice of ignorant academics and ideologues America now expects the Arabs to help. I won't be surprised if some Arab countries, the same ones that are sending Moussa on this mission, turn against him if things go wrong, and there are a great many things that can. Nor will I be surprised if the US starts blaming the Arab League for the turbulence in Iraq.

* The writer is director of the Arab Centre for Development and Futuristic Research.