History all around us

The Middle East is being dismantled and reassembled, the castle of the Arab world breached from within, writes Amin Howeidi*

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The Arab League is the mainstay of our regional order. It has been in existence for over half a century, but its fate now hangs in the balance. Attempts to dismantle the Arab League are closely connected with the desire to reorganise the Middle East. Feverish attempts are being made to restructure the region, albeit in a covert and indirect manner. Side issues are being stirred up so as to distract us from the major schemes that are being hatched. The Arabs are losing precious time worrying over such things as elections, the Mehlis report, Arab reconciliation, and events in Alexandria. These are all important issues but they're all of a tactical nature. At the time when we're thinking tactics, others are doing strategy. This is sad. Tactics can at best win a battle; strategy can win the war.

Our regional order is fragile and defenceless. Who is responsible for that? I am not even going to answer, for this would be a waste of time. Our walls have been breached. This is a fact. The US, a country with great power and influence, is fighting a war in Iraq and hoping to put together a greater Middle East. The US is hoping to replace the current regional order with something more malleable. This has been the US's aim since the mid-1950s, since Secretary of State John Foster Dulles put together the Baghdad Pact in an attempt to contain the Soviet Union. The Baghdad Pact ran into dogged opposition from Egypt, Syria and Saudi Arabia, and ultimately collapsed. It is making a comeback, under another name.

Washington believes the time is right for implementing its old schemes. The US wants to control the region. It wants to use the region as part of a plan to contain Russia, just in case. And it wants to destroy what it calls Islamic extremism. Now the circumstances are right for remodelling the Arab world. Iraq was first, and Syria may be next. The plan is getting easier by the day. There is no longer a need to change regimes and leaders, the Americans believe. It's better and cheaper to make leaders change their minds and mend their ways. It happened in Libya and may soon happen in Damascus and elsewhere. The political lexicon has just gained a new entry. It's called the Libya deal.

NATO has managed to get into our midst, silently but smoothly. NATO is no longer a defence organisation, but one that hopes to promote the interests of its members across the world. The Middle East is now part of NATO strategy. NATO leaders have initiated dialogue with countries in this region on the grounds that European security is linked to security and stability in the Middle East. The so-called Istanbul Initiative calls for a partnership between NATO and countries in our region. The declared aim of that partnership is to bring security and peace to the region and help resolve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. NATO is prepared to offer troops to enforce future agreements. NATO is prepared to help out in Iraq. NATO has already obtained a foothold in the Green Zone in Baghdad. NATO maintains a 200-strong mission in Baghdad that is involved in training Iraq's army and police. NATO is helping fight terror in Iraq (Read: NATO is in Iraq to stamp out national resistance).

The Greater Middle East Initiative, which the Americans are trying to implement, was announced at the G8 summit in Georgia. The initiative aims to incorporate three new countries into the region: Turkey, Pakistan and Israel. These three are known to have always been hostile to the Arab cause. Turkey was the first Islamic state to recognise Israel in the mid-1950s. Pakistan and Turkey, along with Iraq and Iran (both royalist at the time), formed the Baghdad Pact. Israel's intentions need no elaboration.

Turkey and Israel have established ties close enough to threaten Arab national security. They have initiated close military cooperation. They have signed an agreement to link the Ceyhan-Sasan pipeline in Turkey with the Eilat-Ashkelon line in Israel. Turkey has promised to provide Israel with natural gas and water. The Turkish port of Ceyhan would eventually be connected by pipelines to Kirkuk in Iraq and Ashkelon in Israel. Through Turkey, Pakistan is forging closer links with Israel and hopes to "benefit from Israel's civilisation," to use the words of the Pakistani president. Any objections?

How can there be any objections when some Arab countries have established full relations with Israel and others are doing so covertly. No one seems to be worried about history: history has lost to realpolitik. Turkey thinks it is the main player in the region because it is the gate to Arab and Islamic countries. Israel, for its part, knows it is the gateway to the United States. Being the guardian of US interests in the region, Israel is in a much stronger position than Turkey. Israel wins.

In brief, the region is undergoing radical change, with old structures falling apart and old ways remodelled. Once the dismantling is done, the reconstruction will begin, by which time everyone in the region will have learned what to say and how to act.

The reconstruction process is likely to proceed in phases. I believe that the main players in the first phase would be Israel, Turkey, Iraq and perhaps Pakistan. Where does Egypt fit in? The architects of the Greater Middle East, in my opinion, believe that Egypt should start acting like an African country. Egypt would be encouraged to get closer to countries located on its west or south. Egypt is the heart of pan-Arabism, and it is imperative -- according to the current scheme -- that it be distanced from the eastern part of the Arab world.

Where does the Arab League fit in that scheme? The Arab League is only as powerful as its members wish it to be. And for the time being, the Arab League is being destroyed from within. This is how castles are usually breached: by people working from the inside. The Greater Middle East map is being drawn. This is a fact. Whether it will be endorsed or not by the inhabitants of that region, we'll have to wait and see.

* The writer is former minister of defence and chief of general intelligence.