Bittersweet victory

The ruling party might have won the majority it was seeking, but at what price? asks Gamal Essam El-Din

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WAR ZONE: Daqahliya and other governorates where run-off elections took place on Wednesday saw more clashes between police and would-be voters; several people were killed and dozens injured

Egypt's month-long parliamentary elections ended yesterday amid continued violence and a heavy police presence. As the polls closed in the last nine governorates to vote, the indications were that the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) had continued its lacklustre performance of the first and second stages.

Of the 136 candidates fielded by the NDP in the final stage of the poll, which began on 1 December, only four secured seats in the first round of this stage, leaving the fate of the remaining 132 to be decided by run-offs. And while early results of yesterday's run- off battle suggested the NDP would secure the two-thirds majority it needs to extend its quarter-of-a-century hold over parliament -- that was never really in doubt -- returns indicate a party that has consistently failed to connect with the mass of ordinary voters.

In the first stage, held between 9 and 15 November in eight governorates, the NDP won 68 seats and lost 96. In the second stage, from 20 to 26 November, the NDP won just 34 seats and lost 104. And in the second stage, NDP losses included four chairmen of parliamentary committees, a former deputy prime minister, one of the party's provincial secretaries, and several prominent businessmen.

Following the first and second stages, NDP officials announced that 118 winning independent candidates had joined the party ranks, swelling its number of parliamentary seats to 224 by Tuesday. The announcement took some of the winners -- including successful candidates like Hayam Amer in Daqahliya governorate -- by surprise. Some names appeared to have been added to the NDP's tally without prior consultation or permission.

Immediately following the first round of the third stage, NDP Secretary-General Safwat El-Sherif said that the party had re- admitted yet more so-called NDP independents, bringing the number of seats controlled by the NDP in the new People's Assembly to 207. This, El-Sherif pointed out, left 66 candidates to fight it out in 33 constituencies, all of them from the NDP.

"It is a foregone conclusion," boasted El-Sherif, "that the 66 seats will be won by the NDP."

While the well-worn tactic of re- admitting candidates who had stood as independents to the party ranks in order to swell its numbers in parliament will secure the two-thirds majority the party was seeking, many commentators see it as underlining the weakness of the NDP. One of the most telling features of the election, says a leading analyst, is the extent of the NDP's failure and the loss of its leaders' credibility.

"The NDP's old guard," he added, "not only bear the responsibility for this failure but can be blamed, too, for the indifference of the vast majority of voters, as reflected in the low turnout."

It is anticipated that the new parliament will now include between 300 and 330 members of the NDP, compared with 388 in the outgoing Assembly. The opposition, including the Muslim Brotherhood, are expected to occupy almost 100 seats, compared with 40 in the last parliament. The extent of the NDP's majority means the party can effectively exclude the opposition from important legislative and constitutional decisions.

The erosion of the NDP's majority to around 300 does, however, represent a significant change in the People's Assembly. Some have suggested that, with the opposition occupying around a quarter of the parliamentary seats, it will be able -- under Articles 126 and 127 of the constitution -- to withdraw confidence from individual cabinet ministers or even the prime minister over specific policy issues. That scenario looks unlikely, however, given that a motion of no-confidence must be approved by a simple majority of the house. In any case, because the new parliament is undoubtedly going to be a livelier place than the last, the NDP will be unable to ignore parliamentary sessions for the first time in the party's history.

If the difficulties encountered by the NDP in winning the two-thirds majority it needs in order to secure control of any constitutional amendments and the legislative programme surprised many, the success at the polls of the Muslim Brotherhood was even more astonishing.

Of the 160 Brotherhood candidates, almost 100 have won seats, up from 17 in the last parliamentary elections. Their success came despite repeated Brotherhood complaints of police harassment, especially in the third stage.

Confounding expectations in the opposite direction was the almost total annihilation of the secular opposition parties. While early returns in the final round of voting suggest that three prominent Nasserists are likely to win their seats, this is poor compensation for the heavy losses suffered by left-leaning candidates in the first two stages of the poll.

The new parliament is now expected to include eight members from the left: Sameh Ashour, the Nasserist-oriented chairman of the Bar Association; Hamdeen Sabahi, chairman of the would-be Karama Party; Saad Aboud, another Karama member, Kamal Ahmed and Heidar Baghdadi, two independent MPs with Nasserist tendencies; Mohamed Shaaban and Saad Tilima of the Tagammu Party; and Mustafa Bakri, a member of the Coalition for Democratic Change and editor of the leftist weekly Al-Osbou.

President Hosni Mubarak will address a joint meeting of the new People's Assembly and Shura Council on 17 December. Before People's Assembly members are sworn in on 13 December the NDP will convene a meeting during which the new speaker and two deputy speakers will be named. Mubarak also told reporters on Tuesday that he will reshuffle the cabinet at the end of this month or early next year.