Going plural
Ahead of elections slated one month from now, Fatah is fragmenting, with its candidate list divided and confused, reports Khalid Amayreh in the West Bank
Fatah, the mainstream faction of the Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO) and de facto governing party of the Palestinian Authority (PA), is facing its most intractable crisis since its creation more than 40 years ago. The problem stems from an enduring power struggle between the "old guard" and the so-called "young guard" -- youthful "home-grown" leaders led by imprisoned Fatah parliamentarian Marwan Barghouthi and his reformist-minded supporters.
The crisis is also attributed to the absence of charismatic stewardship -- like that of Yasser Arafat -- able to unify the various and often quarrelling factions within the movement, even by authoritarian means if necessary.
Fatah had been trying for some time to form a unified list of candidates to contest the upcoming legislative elections on 25 January. Due to the weakness of the national leadership of the movement, including that of President Mahmoud Abbas, and the insistence of many Fatah leaders that their names be included on candidate lists, the movement has been forced to submit two lists, one representing the "old guard" or the "establishment" and bearing the name "Fatah," and another called Al-Mustaqbal (The Future) headed by Marwan Barghouthi.
The "establishment list," as critics call it, includes veteran PLO politicians such as former Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei, Intisar Al-Wazir (wife of late PLO leader Khalil Al-Wazir, aka Abu Jihad), Uthman Abu Gharbiyeh, Nabil Amr, Azzam Al-Ahmad and Hakam Balawi. At the top of the other list stands Marwan Barghouthi, followed by such presumed reformers as Mohamed Dahlan, Samir Mishharawi, Sufyan Abu Zaydeh and Ahmed Ghuneim. The list also includes Jebril Rajoub, a former confidant of Arafat and chief of the once-feared Preventive Security Force.
Outside the two lists, dozens of Fatah activists and regional leaders have declared their candidacies as "independents" in their respective electoral circuits. Most of these candidates count on backing from their own clans. However, in most cases, clan allegiance alone is unlikely to amass sufficient votes needed to secure a parliamentary seat. The fact that numerous candidates representing Fatah, either formally or informally, are contesting the upcoming elections underscores the internal crisis besetting the movement.
According to Dahlan, Fatah is in trouble. "There is a crisis, a 'democracy crisis', within Fatah," he was quoted as saying by the Al-Ayyam newspaper on 19 December.
Dahlan pointed out that many of the candidates chosen to contest the elections enjoyed scant popularity -- even among Fatah's rank and file and grassroots supporters, let alone among the Palestinian masses. Dahlan said the internal crisis within Fatah expressed itself in Nablus, Al-Bireh and Jenin, where Hamas prevailed in the latest round of municipal elections. "We didn't lose in these cities because of lack of public support, but rather because Fatah chose the wrong people to represent the movement," he said.
In addition, the excessive number of Fatah candidates, which is not only disproportionate to the number of contested seats (132) of the Palestinian parliament, but also exceeds by several fold the number of seats Fatah is reasonably expected to win, means that a sizeable chunk of votes will be wasted, especially in regional districts. This scenario is likely to occur in places like Hebron where several Fatah candidates are vying for the same seat.
While the Fatah vote looks set to be split among multiple candidates, this is not the case with Hamas, whose number of candidates corresponds to, or is even less than, the number of contested seats. According to Nayef Rajoub, spokesman for Hamas candidates in the Hebron district -- the largest district in the West Bank -- there are no two Hamas or Islamist candidates vying for the same seat anywhere in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. "We are a disciplined movement; we don't think like others do. Those who are not candidates will serve our cause and society by other means," he said.
More to the point, Hamas decided to cooperate with moderate nationalist figures, including former lawmakers such as Hasan Khreishe and Muawiya Al-Masri, ostensibly in preparation for post-election alliances.
As for Fatah, it is not clear how the movement is going to deal with the present predicament it faces. An unnamed aide to PA President Mahmoud Abbas was quoted by the Associated Press (AP) on Tuesday, 20 December, as saying that the Palestinian leader was under pressure by Fatah to cancel or at least postpone the 25 January elections because of serious fears about a possible Hamas victory.
According to the aide, Abbas was planning to raise the issue in a meeting with Egyptian Intelligence Chief Omar Suleiman who was scheduled to visit Ramallah on Wednesday, 21 December.
The AP report seems to have some credibility. On Tuesday, Sufyan Abu Zaida, a former PA minister and veteran Fatah leader in the Gaza Strip said during a political meeting in Gaza that Fatah was not ready and that the elections should be postponed. "Fatah is trouble. Fatah needs a chance to prepare for the elections, and that means we cannot hold the election on 25 January," he said.
PA officials have publicly denied that any plan exists -- or that even the intention exists -- to postpone the elections. Palestinian official Saeb Erekat, who is a candidate in the Jericho district, said there was no chance President Abbas would agree to postpone the elections. "Postponing the election would be a disaster for the Palestinian people. Abu Mazen (Abbas) is determined to carry out this election as scheduled on 25 January, and I totally agree with him."
Erekat has a point. Any unjustified postponement of the election would plunge the PA, and also Palestinian society, into a very deep crisis. Moreover, postponement would exacerbate Fatah's internal breakdown and might very well lead to internal violence, including possible assassinations.
Recommend
Comment
Printer-friendly
