Analyse this

The alarm bells Mohamed Hassanein Heikal set off on the eve of 2005 ring louder every day

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Mohamed Hassanein Heikal

Mohamed Hassanein Heikal sat at his desk, confidently eyeing his audience. Yet as he began to address them from Al-Jazeera's Cairo studio, he could not have sounded more concerned. Egypt's most admired, and perhaps best informed, political commentator spoke gravely of the nation's failure to appreciate the past, take hold of the present, or plan for the future.

That future, he was saying, is unlikely to be as safe or as prosperous as most of us would like to believe. Heikal's reasons for such pessimism, delineated on 31 December 2004, a few months after his brand new show was launched to much fanfare, revolved around the country's increasing failure to make effective assessments of regional and world developments, its willingness to have less of a say in them, and its tendency to give way to lesser powers as regional leaders.

That concern was constantly reiterated through 2005: at no point was Heikal short of evidence to justify it. Historic and personal recollections underlined the difference between a nation with will and determination, and one wallowing in directionless apathy. Entitled "With Heikal", the Thursday night prime time show became a weekly reminder of the need not only to learn from the past, but also to realise the lack of promise in the future. At times Heikal stated this clearly; at other times he let his audience draw their own conclusions. Egypt's internal politics required more and better attention, while its participation in regional and international politics pointed to an absence not only of power but at times, indeed, of dignity.

How is the country perceived and dealt with by fellow Arab states, by regional powers, by Washington, he asked. As it embarks on another difficult decade, how likely is the country to repeat the aberrations of autocracy, miscalculation and Macbeth-like confusion of personal and national aspirations? As he took stock of both happy moments and painful lessons, Heikal also communicated the message that, while daunting, the challenge of living up to the future is never insurmountable. Today's political leaders do not necessarily lack the ability to make the right decisions and adjust to their peoples' hopes. A leader's heart may be in the right place, he said, giving King Farouk and the Wafd Party prime minister Mustafa El-Nahhas as examples. Still, he will never achieve much so long as he remains unable to control his people -- or his family, for that matter -- or utilise his national assets. A leader must exercise such control with a view to cutting losses and maximising benefits. It is possible to see when a nation is at a boiling point by applying basic physics: corruption and power abuse, ageing leaders manipulated by ill-meaning family members and aides, a rise in political dissent; that kind of situation will render cosmetic reforms worthless, for it is precisely then that a nation, feeling helpless, begins to search desperately for a saviour.

Heikal made it clear that even though the show's theme was "an account of life experiences", he had no intention of serving up his memoirs. Rather, he was eager to share his experience with those who have been with and against him through a lifetime of journalism and politics, to place the significance of each episode in context and use it to shed light on the present moment. And to do so he put his high-level, first- hand information, and his unique collection of classified and rare documents, at the disposal of the audience: "This is what we really need to do: to confront the facts of history... This is something that I think we have not really made the time or effort to do sufficiently... it is a collective responsibility... to look at history to see our true image in the mirror..." By failing to undertake this exercise, he said, the nation, and the entire region with it, will keep making the same mistakes over and over again: the endless attempt to prove that all is well, when nothing is going well; efforts to prove that Arabs do not mean to antagonise Israel when it is Israel that has been antagonising Arabs, for example.

"The regime seems to have lost its memory," Heikal argued; "the memory of other political parties seems to be reduced to mere reminiscences and anecdotes... this is the real source of power of the Muslim Brotherhood: their memory is well kept. And at times of uncertainty, people look for a source of certainty." The message, however brief, was loaded: "things are moving fast; things are moving without the benefit of planning; the boat is out of control; the boat is in the midst of high seas, and the captain is no longer in control of the helm..."

Will Heikal go further in 2006? We'll soon know.

By Dina Ezzat