Moment of truth

By Salama A Salama

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Hamas's victory marks the end of international and regional indifference over the Palestinian issue. For years there has been no progress in peace talks. Israel has assassinated activists, built walls, seized land and created settlements. And the Palestinians have retaliated with suicide or rocket attacks. Then talks would be halted, crossing points closed and any number of villages and towns re- occupied. The Egyptians would intercede, or the Europeans advise caution, and Israel would lift the siege. Yet the tit-for-tat would eventually resume.

Occasionally the Quartet (EU, UN, US and Russia) met to reconsider resuscitating the roadmap. Condoleezza Rice or Javier Solana would appear on a flying visit to make reassuring noises. Invariably, Israel would demand some quid pro quo. Occasionally the Arabs would oblige. And the Palestinians would get a little something to keep them quiet -- money to rebuild, buy food or line the pockets of the lucky few.

This surrealistic show has been going on for years, even before the death of Yasser Arafat. Was it to keep the whole show going that Arafat was killed? The Palestinian Authority, led by Fatah, benefited from the impasse. Arab nations, meanwhile, were fed up. (A reader once remarked to me that he would read everything I wrote except if it was about Palestine). Following Arafat's death the US and Europe pressed for Palestinian democratisation. The Palestinians needed to reform so as to qualify for talks with "democratic" Israel. The Palestinians did just that, and Hamas has won. But the democracy the US wanted was not exactly the democracy that comes about through ballot boxes.

Hamas's victory marks the end of a decade of theatrics, a decade used by Israel to grab more land and consolidate a policy of racial segregation. Palestinian radicals have won, among their lists 15 prisoners held by Israel. This may seem a bit unexpected but I am sure that the Israelis and Americans were not taken by total surprise. More likely they knew that a victory by Hamas, an organisation espousing armed struggle, would give Israel and America some much-needed breathing space. Israel is still busy assessing the situation following Sharon's disappearance. And the US knows it couldn't deliver its promise concerning the two-state solution. Hamas's victory offered both a timely alibi.

Neither the Americans nor the Israelis are willing to talk to Hamas until the latter abandons its policy of armed struggle. And Hamas has yet to decide whether to join the PLO or form a coalition government with Fatah. This is a new dilemma for all those involved. It is a challenge for President Mahmoud Abbas, who is trying to put the Palestinian house in order. And it is a challenge for the Americans and Europeans, who need to face this new reality.

Everyone is calling on Hamas to come up with a new policy regarding Israel. But Hamas is unlikely to do so overnight. It would not want to repeat the mistakes of the Palestinian Authority. Hamas, in all likelihood, will adopt an approach of constructive ambiguity pending the outcome of Israeli elections in March.

Hamas is capable of pragmatism. It could not have participated in the elections otherwise. Hamas is still committed to the truce it agreed along with other Palestinian factions. Perhaps it is time major powers encourage Hamas to embrace realism. Perhaps it is time to break the vicious circle.