Candid talk

What does the US want from Egypt, asks Amira Howeidy as US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice visits Cairo

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President Mubarak held talks with Rice on Tuesday

Egypt and the US are "friends" but "they speak candidly," US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice told reporters in Cairo on Tuesday evening. And as friends, she added, the US is not in the business of "judging" Egypt.

She was speaking at a joint press conference held with Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul-Gheit at the request of the Americans in the old headquarters of the Foreign Ministry. The event was managed the way the Americans, and not their hosts, wanted. Media representatives were told to arrive at 4.45pm only to be kept waiting for three hours -- plenty of time to mull over just how the US arranges its press conferences in Egypt.

"How can they treat us this way in our own country?" one reporter asked rhetorically.

The delay somewhat took the gloss off the shoulder to shoulder, peer relationship act attempted by Rice and Abul-Gheit which many journalists found difficult to digest.

"Didn't Washington freeze Free Trade Agreement (FTA) talks as punishment for the incarceration of [opposition leader] Ayman Nour?" the Cairo correspondent of the Saudi-funded Al-Arabiya TV news channel asked Rice. Another reporter questioned the "kind of democracy" envisioned by the US. "Do you want a democracy in Egypt that depends on NGOs financed by the West? Or the kind of democracy that violates human rights as in Iraq today?" he asked.

When senior US officials visit Egypt the state- run media likes to go into overdrive in its commentary on Egyptian-American bilateral relations. But to pundits and observers alike the most pertinent question, as always, does not concern the bilateral nature of Egyptian-US ties. They want to know, instead, just what it is that Washington wants. But because diplomacy is by definition opaque, especially when it concerns wars, sanctions and the like, pundits are left with no other option but to attempt to decipher the messages coming from Washington, and Cairo's response to them.

As Rice kicked off her Middle East tour in Egypt on Tuesday, followed by Saudi Arabia on Wednesday then the United Arab Emirates, items at the top of her agenda included Iran, Hamas and Iraq. They seem to have shouldered aside Washington's concerns over Egypt's faltering democratic transformation though signs of US displeasure on that front appeared in a Washington Post editorial on 17 January. Citing the imprisonment of Ghad Party leader Ayman Nour and state intervention in the parliamentary elections the editorial urged the US administration to put negotiations over the free trade agreement Egypt is seeking on hold.

Earlier, in December, State Department spokesman Adam Ereli was quoted as saying that Nour's case, as well as the Egyptian government's "broader performance on democratic reform is going to figure significantly in the bilateral [US-Egyptian] relationship".

Strains in Egypt-US relations last year appeared to come to a head when President Hosni Mubarak cancelled his annual US visit. But according to Abdel-Raouf El-Ridi, chairman of the Egyptian Council for Foreign Relations, when Rice visits Egypt it should be viewed as an attempt to improve the climate of bilateral relations.

"But where does the problem lie this time? Is it democracy and reform? Or is it Iraq? Is it Iran? In my view," said El-Ridi, "the biggest issue is Iraq."

While any analysis of Rice's visit to Egypt heavily depends on conclusions drawn from her 40-minute joint press conference with Abul- Gheit a great many questions remained unasked by the journalists present and, as a consequence, unanswered.

One issue that was not broached on Tuesday concerns US demands that Egypt and other Arab and Islamic countries send military forces to Iraq. While such a scenario seems unlikely given public disquiet about such a move, speculation that something was in the offing was fuelled by US Vice-President Dick Cheney's visit to Egypt last month.

As political analyst Hassan Nafaa noted in an article published in the London-based Al-Hayat newspaper at the time, Cheney's meeting with Mubarak was not attended by officials from either side -- a sign that the issues discussed were of the utmost importance and sensitivity.

"Cheney came to the region seeking an exit for the US from the swamp it willingly got itself into and of which Cheney was an architect," wrote Nafaa. That the visit was followed by the Washington Post 's 17 January editorial seems to indicate that whatever demands Cheney was making -- including the possibility of Egyptian troops serving in Iraq -- were met with a cool response from the Egyptian establishment which is usually keen to contain any differences with the US. Significantly, Cheney did not focus on the issue of democratic transformation or reform during his visit.

Similarly Rice, who delayed a scheduled visit to Cairo last year in protest against Nour's incarceration, appeared less concerned with Egypt's domestic politics than previously.

When asked about Nour she said she was "disappointed" and described his situation as a "setback". But it is up to the opposition, said Rice, to make a "case for themselves to the public".

Neither did she mention the People's Assembly's decision -- prompted by the ruling NDP -- to postpone the municipal council elections scheduled this year to 2008, a move slammed by the opposition as an attempt to curb potential Islamist gains following the Muslim Brotherhood's success in November's parliamentary elections. The decision was criticised at the time by a US State Department spokesman who said that it was a matter Washington would be taking up with the Egyptian government. It did not, however, feature in the Rice-Abul-Gheit press conference.

For the time being, at least, it appears that Washington is interested in "mobilising Arab public opinion against Iran in an attempt to isolate Tehran, specifically in the Gulf," argues El-Ridi.

And then there is the question of Hamas, the Palestinian resistance group which won a major victory in last month's Palestinian elections. The group is listed as a terrorist organisation by the State Department and the Bush administration has demanded the return of $50 million in direct aid from the Palestinian Authority. Meanwhile Israel last week halted monthly payments of roughly $50 million in tax and customs revenue.

Rice slammed what she described as Hamas's divided allegiance between politics and "terrorism".

"You can't have one foot in the camp of terror and violence and the other in politics," she said.

But her appeal to Arab states to refuse any aid to Hamas was not welcomed by Abul-Gheit. "The Palestinian government is there and it has to be supported. We should give Hamas time. We should not prejudge the issue," he said.

Abul-Gheit explained that "it is only a matter of time" before the Palestinians recognise the requirements of the roadmap.

And that, according to an editorial published by the Israeli daily Haaretz newspaper on Wednesday, more or less sums up Cairo's position vis-à- vis Hamas. The editorial claimed that during Israeli Defence Minister Shaul Mofaz's recent visit to Egypt President Mubarak warned that a belligerence contest with Hamas, and collective punishment of Palestinians, will only strengthen the organisation.

"The president proposed that the Israeli government try to keep quiet and allow Hamas to sweat; either it will become more moderate, or it will split, or it will dig its own grave," said the paper.

Rice met Mubarak on Wednesday followed by another meeting with selected Egyptian figures and civil society representatives before flying to Riyadh.