Party lines
More unilateral policies are in the offing by Israel, writes Erica Silverman
A major shift in Israeli politics was cemented last week as acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's centrist Kadima Party became the largest party in the Knesset, winning 28 seats in Israel's 28 March parliamentary elections.
The party didn't fare as well as expected, although Olmert is likely to form a solid coalition allowing him to move ahead with his stated intention of further unilateral withdrawals from the West Bank. In preparation, the West Bank has been trisected into a north, south, and middle region, similar to the Gaza Strip before Israel's August-September withdrawal.
On Monday, the Israeli Central Election Commission revised election results, granting the second placed centre-left Labour Party 19 rather than 20 seats, making Olmert's task of forming a centre-left Jewish majority more difficult. However, possible support from religious or centre-right parties should enable the plan to go forward. Arab parties had demanded a recount of ballots in certain Arab cities, which cost Labour one seat and increased the United Arab List's representation in the 120-seat parliament from three to four. Voter turnout was 63 per cent -- the lowest in Israel's history.
"In the coming period we will move to set the final borders of the state of Israel, a Jewish state with a Jewish majority," Olmert told Kadima supporters in a televised speech on elections night. "We will try to achieve this in an agreement with the Palestinians... If not, Israel will take control of its own fate, and in consensus among our people and with the agreement of our friends in the world, especially US President George Bush, we will act," he continued.
Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh has rejected Olmert's unilateral blueprint for withdrawal, describing it as a reinforcement of Israel's status quo. US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice stated the US is not yet aware of the details of Olmert's plan. She referred to Hamas's victory on a platform of resistance to the Israeli occupation, stating, "if you are going to have negotiation you have to have partners; and the Palestinian government does not accept the concept of a negotiated solution."
Kadima is expected to enter into coalition talks with Labour and other smaller parties, seeking a rightist and leftist alliance to preserve their centrist identity. Possible partners include Shas, 12 seats, ultra-Orthodox; Pensioners, seven seats, a new single-issue party; Torah Judaism, six seats, ultra-Orthodox; and Meretz, five seats, left wing. Unlikely partners include Likud, 12 seats, right wing; Arab parties, 10 seats; National Union/Religious, nine seats, far-right, settlers; and Israel Beitenu, 11 seats, a far-right Russian immigrant party whose leader, Avigdor Lieberman, advocates the disenfranchisement of Israeli-Arabs and the transfer of their areas to the Palestinian Authority in exchange for Jewish settlement blocs in the West Bank.
President Moshe Katsav began talks with party leaders Sunday. According to the Israeli daily Haaretz a coalition is expected to emerge in about three weeks, although the process could take up to six. Knesset members will be sworn in 17 April. Olmert may be forced to allocate important ministries to his partners and accommodate their demands to restore social benefits -- election results represented, in part, a voter backlash against harsh economic policies that helped to pull Israel out of recession at the expense of welfare recipients and the low paid, although Central Bank Governor Stanley Fischer warned that the new government must keep welfare spending increases within the limits of current economic policy -- that is the price he seems willing to pay to build a coalition that will support his charted plan to set Israel's final borders by 2010.
To draw the final borders of Israel the government will have to decide which settlements to keep and which ones to evacuate. Olmert wants to withdraw occupying forces from most of the land captured during the 1967 war, but areas with large Jewish settlements will be retained by Israel. A significant portion of this land has already been annexed by Israel, such as East Jerusalem and the Golan Heights, disregarding international law. Israel's strategy for the next few years will focus on the large settlement blocs in the West Bank, such as Gush Etzion in the south, Ariel and Kedumim in the north, and Maale Adumim east of Jerusalem, already fated to be located on the western-Israeli side of the "separation barrier", snaking around and through the West Bank.
Ariel Sharon founded Kadima last year after his departure from Likud amidst bitter disputes over his withdrawal from Gaza. Sharon suffered a stroke and fell into a coma in January. Kadima will continue Sharon's vision, asserting the ball is now in the Palestinians' court to implement their obligations, otherwise border drawing will start without them.
In January the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reported a "horizontal trisection of the West Bank" by Israel, dividing it into three distinct areas -- north, central and south. "Movement is easier inside these areas but travel between them is hindered by a combination of checkpoints, permit restricted roads, and other physical barriers," states the OCHA report. "The West Bank has been narrowed due to tight restriction on movement, on the east side to the Jordan Valley; on the west side due to 'closed areas' between the Green Line and the [separation] Barrier, including East Jerusalem," it continues.
Israel asserts that the closure system is a security measure to protect Israeli citizens, however in the Jordan Valley, which has witnessed the recent tightening of restrictions, the reason remains unclear given the absence of Palestinian attacks emanating from the area in the past several years. Israel may move to annex the Jordan Valley area so it can control the entire length of the border with Jordan, from the Golan in the north to the Gulf of Aqaba.
In October 2005, it became necessary for Palestinians to obtain a permit to pass through the four Israeli checkpoints controlling traffic into the Jordan Valley, according to the OCHA report. Palestinians who own land or property in the Jordan Valley but live in the West Bank can no longer access the area without a permit; one at best that does not allow Palestinians to stay overnight on their land.
West Bank permit holders can now access East Jerusalem only through four crossings in the "separation barrier", and the erratic operation of gates means that those who successfully obtain a permit are not guaranteed regular access to these closed areas. Qalandia checkpoint that lies between Jerusalem and Ramallah is now considered an international border. The OCHA report also mentions the requisition of 7,884 dunums of land throughout the West Bank by Israel since August 2005.
As for Kadima's plan for withdrawal, Palestinians argue the West Bank and Gaza in their entirety, all settlements abandoned, represents just 22 per cent of historic Palestine -- Palestine before the state of Israel was declared in 1948 -- already a significant compromise.
Dahlan under fire
The killing of a resistance commander in Gaza raises the spectre of inter-Palestinian conflict
Why has the Popular Resistance Committees (PRC) -- a Palestinian umbrella faction comprised of several hundred militants -- blamed senior Fatah leader and legislator Mohamed Dahlan for the assassination of their commander Abu Youssef Abu Quka, asks Erica Silverman.
"It stems from long-standing grievances with senior Fatah leaders; their gut reaction is to blame Fatah," explained Diana Buttu, a legal advisor to Dahlan. "Israel has been clever in trying to create divisions within Palestinian society," she continued, referring to Israel's continued policy of assassinations that often sparks internal conflict. Targeted factions, Palestinian, caught off guard and facing a power vacuum are unable to hold Israel accountable, so they point the finger at each other.
Abu Quka's white Subaru exploded just before Friday prayer in Gaza City. PRC members accused the Fatah- dominated Palestinian Authority (PA) Preventive Security Service and senior Fatah officials in Gaza, including Mohamed Dahlan, Samir Masharawi, and Director of Preventive Security Rashid Abu Shabak of conspiring with Israel to execute the attack. Israel has denied involvement.
PRC spokesperson Abu Abir said that gunmen affiliated with Dahlan were caught spying on Abu Quka's home Thursday. Abu Quka announced he and his allies would wage "an open war" on Dahlan and several other security commanders.
Dahlan dismissed the PRC's allegations as "baseless ugly accusations" from Cairo where he met chief of Egyptian General Intelligence Omar Suleiman. A senior delegation of Egyptian officials remains in Gaza as an interlocutor between factions.
Dahlan, former minister of civil affairs, asserted the new Hamas interior minister, Saed Syiam, should handle the investigation. Will Syiam be able to control the mostly Fatah- affiliated PA security forces? "He is in for a tough ride, from the perspective of Gaza," answered Buttu. Fatah members may be reluctant to relinquish their perks and their power.
Today PRC members are seen as loyal to Hamas, playing a strong role in their recent electoral campaign. Abu Quka himself campaigned for several Hamas candidates. The PRC's attack against Dahlan and other Fatah members may be the foreshadowing to a greater internal conflict between Fatah and Hamas. Hamas will try to continue to appear as the opposition party for the next few months, even though they are now in power, said Buttu. In the best-case scenario the conflict will take the form of partisan politicking; in the worst case it will result in a bloody inter-Palestinian conflict. Whether Dahlan will play a role in controlling Fatah militias, as he has in the past, remains to be seen.
Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh appealed for calm Saturday and stated that security forces would try to "pull our civilian gunmen off the streets". Masharawi admonished he would not be able to persuade Fatah supporters to hide their arms. "It seems the brothers in Hamas forget they are in power and represent a Palestinian government and are responsible for defending security institutions," he said.
Hamas Parliament Speaker Abdul-Aziz Duwaik told Al-Ahram Weekly, "any kind of weapons used for resistance against the enemies of our nation are acceptable, but the weapons that are being used against our institutions and our citizens are harmful to our society and our security," clarifying that Haniyeh was referring to the latter.
Now that Hamas has become an official political party is the PRC filling the militant void? The PRC will fill the void in cooperation with Hamas, and Islamic Jihad will fill the void in opposition to Hamas, predict Buttu. Hamas's first test as legislators is to restore law and order as promised. Palestinians must be convinced there are legitimate mechanisms by which they can communicate their message to the PA.
Duwaik assured, "within a few weeks things will be ok. We have a goal; we have to convince the people [perpetrating internal violence] that what they are doing is against their own interests and the interests of the people."
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