Beyond the vacuum

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President Hosni Mubarak recently drew attention to an often overlooked fact -- Egypt does not exist in a vacuum. It is an integral part of what has become the world's most volatile region.

In a much publicised interview with Al-Arabiya satellite network Mubarak painted a grim picture, speaking ominously of Iraq being on the brink of "civil war" and stressing that should it cross the threshold on which it now teeters the regional ramifications will be grave indeed.

Whether first or among equals, what sort of role can Egypt play in the region? Egypt is no longer shy at counting itself among the region's powers. There are three big powers in the region -- Egypt, Iran and Turkey, countries with populations of over 70 million and relatively large economies. Then there is, of course, the religious authority, oil wealth and attendant financial clout of Saudi Arabia. Last but not least there is Israel -- the region's only nuclear power and close ally of the regional power-broker, the United States. It is Washington that calls the shots.

US regional hegemony hides a multitude of problems. The US occupation of Iraq has opened up a can of worms. Whatever other benefits the Bush administration claims the Iraqi people have accrued are completely overshadowed by the threat of a civil war that is persistently, and naively, portrayed by the international media as a deadly conflict between Arab and Kurd, Sunni and Shia.

Religious identity has largely replaced nationalist ideology. That leaves open the possibility that people in the region will increasingly come to identify themselves on a religious basis.

Ethnic politics, too, have come into play, making it harder to bet with any confidence on a politically stable and economically prosperous future.

Highlighting ethnic and religious loyalties and divisions only exacerbates an already explosive situation, as Mubarak rightly pointed out. Perhaps the comment that drew most attention was Mubarak's insinuation that some among the Shia population of Iraq are acting as a fifth column of Iran. The Shia retorted that they are as Arab nationalist as their Sunni Arab compatriots. The point, though, is that playing the religious card only creates more problems for the people of the region.

So what lessons can we draw from the controversy over the Sunni-Shia divide that threatens to spill over into other Arab countries with large and often politically marginalised Shia populations?

One of the worst aspects of the US occupation of Iraq is that Iraqis -- and their neighbours and the outside world -- have come to see themselves and others in terms of religious affiliation rather than political or ideological orientation. There is also the ethnic divide -- Arab and non-Arab. This new emphasis on ethnic differences and religious categorisation takes many forms, all of them dangerously divisive. Much political capital is made of the non-Arabs of Sudan, the Kurds of Iraq and the Berbers of the Arab Maghreb. In much the same vein Egyptians are increasingly encouraged to classify themselves as Muslims, Coptic Christians or Nubians. This is a very American way of looking at the world -- the US was, after all, traditionally perceived as being composed of blacks, whites and Hispanics.

But surely there is more to identity politics than race, ethnicity and religion. Questions of social justice, political and economic empowerment for women, democratisation and the upholding of human rights must come to the fore. Political reform in the region can only come about by turning away from the religious and ethnic divisions capitalised upon by unscrupulous politicians and foreign powers for their own dubious ends.