Next stop Somalia

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We've failed Somalia, just as we failed Sudan before it. We've failed to identify problems in their early stage and do something about them. This is something we tend to do, but nowhere more so than in the southern stretches of our world, where Africa and the Arab region merge. We get obsessed with problems on our eastern front -- Iran, Iraq -- and forget about the south.

Things that happen in Africa fail to command our full attention. Sudan has had a problem with the south for decades and we failed to address it in a proper manner. We could have helped Sudan find a solution, through autonomy or increased development in the south. But the problem was not pressing for us. It happened on the periphery of our system and we gave it minimal attention.

As a result, the problem of southern Sudan was tackled through IGAD (the Intergovernmental Authority on Development) and the international community (which some of us would denounce as interventionist). We've neglected the periphery (South Sudan, Darfur) to focus on the centre (Iraq) and failed on both fronts.

Sudan is now faced with partition. The Abuja agreement may excuse rapid international deployment at any moment. The day the agreement was announced, US officials started talking about NATO's willingness to transport international troops to Darfur to enforce law and order. A peace deal that should've paved the way to reconciliation is now being used as a springboard for foreign intervention.

Stability in Darfur has become a synonym for intervention. Major countries use the idea to find a toehold in a region rich with strategic minerals. One is tempted to think that the whole scenario of intervention begins with "constructive chaos". Once a region is destabilised, international powers step in and rearrange it according to their needs. Is this what's going to happen? What about those factions that refused to sign the Abuja agreement? Will they take kindly to foreign deployment? Or would they fight on, initiating the same kind of mayhem one sees in Iraq? Much of the current debacle could have been avoided had we dealt with our problems in a democratic way instead of waiting for chaos to spread and intervention to follow.

Somalia is the next candidate for foreign intervention. A report by the UN secretary-general speaks of illegal arms smuggling by another state in the vicinity, perhaps Ethiopia. Famine is spreading across southern Somalia and parts of Kenya. And as if that is not enough, the US is telling us that Al-Qaeda may have infiltrated the country.

The Arab League should do something for Somalia -- preferably organise a national accord conference. Emphasis here should be not just on restoring law and order, but on creating a sustainable form of democracy before everyone starts talking about foreign intervention. It is high time the Arabs start focussing on the southern front, not just the eastern one.