Wasted energy

Israeli analysts are waking up to the fact that all the force in the world will not break the will of the Palestinians or smother their national rights, writes Ibrahim Nafie

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Israeli leaders want to crush Palestinian resistance to bring peace to Israel. It's false dream and yet it has resulted in one of the most brutal offensives against Gaza. On the Palestinian side, there are people who keep giving Israel reason to claim that no Palestinian partner exists. It is a vicious circle and little in the way of hope appears on the horizon, especially that US officials, or at least some of them, insist on turning the facts upside down, seeing culprits as victims and vice versa. Meanwhile, Palestinian factions, who have finally signed the Prisoners' Document, are yet to formulate a coherent reaction to Israel's plans and actions.

Israel is sticking to its guns, with Olmert telling the world that his convergence plan is the only way "in the absence of a Palestinian partner". But Israel is making sure that the Palestinians remain divided and under fire. Every time the Palestinians get their act together and make ready for talks, Israel provokes, waits for a reprisal, and then attacks in full force.

Last week, I cited Israeli analysts arguing that the Gaza invasion was planned in advance and that the government was just waiting for an excuse. As soon as the excuse (the Kerem Shalom operation in this case) materialised, Israel dusted off the plan, codenamed "Summer Rain", and swung into action. The captors of the Israeli soldier made specific requests, calling for the release of Palestinian women and children. But the Israeli government refused to oblige. Several Israeli analysts have said that the government wants to keep the bloodshed going.

Yael Gvirtz, writing for Yediot Aharonot on 4 July, says that "since the abduction, the Israeli government has failed to play its cards right. The state cannot bow to blackmail and would be in trouble if it agrees to release prisoners as a first step in this operation. But in order to end the blackmail, it should have introduced more cards into the game. It should have lied less and acted more."

Alex Fishman believes that what Israel is doing would lead to more violence. Writing in Yediot Aharonot on 7 July he says: "Israel doesn't know how to be strong enough to create deterrence. Instead, it is following policies that are so brutal they encourage more terrorism against it. "

Writing in Haaretz 7 July, former Meretz leader Yossi Sarid describes the current incursion as a foolish and unjust war. He says: "the captured soldier is a pretext for an aimless war, exactly as the Lebanon war was... By the time Operation Summer Rain runs its course, we would have forgotten the reason we waged it in the first place. The longer the operation continues, the more it will digress from its original goal, which is the freeing of Corporal Gilad Shalit."

I believe that the emergence of a new current in Israel that knows that force alone cannot resolve conflict is a good thing. The belief that words and not bullets are needed may eventually provide a real opportunity for political settlement. Israel did not sign a peace agreement with Egypt until after the October War. It didn't start negotiating with the Palestinians until after the first Intifada erupted. But Israeli governments of late have been acting as if force alone is enough, no doubt encouraged by US support. The result was what you see today.

I also believe that reaching a negotiated settlement for the captured Israeli soldier may be the first step towards resuming negotiations. That may explain why Egypt is exerting tireless efforts to settle the matter of the captured soldier and reach a balanced deal by which Shalit would be released in return for the eventual release of Palestinian detainees. For now, Palestinian factions must formulate detailed plans and remain prepared for all possibilities. The Palestinians must not give the Israeli government further opportunity to claim that there is no Palestinian partner.