Twisted pair

It is time for Somalia's political leaders to put the country's national interest first, writes Gamal Nkrumah

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Islam, and not clan, is increasingly a symbol of identity in contemporary Somalia. And that may be a progressive development. Amid all the confusion, the process of creating peace between the fragile Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and the increasingly powerful Islamic Courts Union moves on apace. The two sides were scheduled to meet in the Sudanese capital Khartoum on Wednesday, but as the newspaper went to press, the Islamic Courts refused to resume talks ostensibly because of the presence of Ethiopian troops on Somali soil at the behest of the TFG.

The Somali peace process can go a little further. In a twisted sort of way, the TFG and the Islamic Courts are two of a kind. Deals are being stitched up. The TFG is hoping that a thriving democracy will arise from the ashes of civil war. But there are deep misgivings as far as the TFG is concerned for not realising its potential. Much of the early euphoria was of course misplaced.

The Islamic Courts Union, on the other hand, scores well for competence. There is little chance of the Islamic Courts joining the interim government, as they seem intent on establishing an Islamic state in Somalia, and do not seem keen on joining the political mainstream. Their methods have often been slapdash, but they do not lack popular support.

Observers of the current phase of Somali politics are caught between admiration and alarm. It would be hard to exaggerate the influence of political Islam in Somalia today. Some 70 members of the 275-strong parliament are suspected of being Islamist militants.

Somali Prime Minister Ali Mohamed Gedi is in an unenviable position. He is accused of running too tight a ship, thus undermining his ministers' ability to work independently. It does not help, either, that most of his ministers are warlords accustomed to calling the shots. Small wonder then that no less than 19 cabinet ministers resigned, citing their dissatisfaction with the government's reluctance to strike a deal with the Islamic Courts who now control huge swathes of territory in southern and central Somalia, including the capital Mogadishu. For his pains, Gedi can expect to be attacked by both secular warlords and militant Islamists.

The warlords, who until recently divvied up the country into their own zones of control, are a spent force. Many of these once-powerful men hold ministerial portfolios in Gedi's government.

Hence the presumption of his imminent fall. If Gedi is to survive politically, he would have to build bridges with the Islamic Courts. But to say that the days of Gedi are numbered is rather reductive.

Gedi survived a no-confidence vote this week. The motion to impeach the Somali prime minister needed 138 votes to pass, but received 126 instead. That was a narrow escape. The political leaders of Somalia must now stand back and let the people have a stronger say in the running of the country. And they must respect the resulting verdict, even if this means the country is run by the Islamic Courts. But then let it be clear from the outset that the appropriate legal channels would then be strictly Islamic.

Last Wednesday, Islamist militias reached within 30 km of Baidoa. The Islamists, however, pulled back on Thursday when some 500 Ethiopian troops reportedly entered the city. The Ethiopians deny these reports. "We are working closely with the Somali government which is recognised by the African Union, the Inter- governmental Authority for Development (IGAD) and the United Nations," Ethiopia's Ambassador to Egypt Ibrahim Idris told Al-Ahram Weekly.

"Ethiopia has no troops on Somali soil. The persistent rumours emanating from Mogadishu that we have troops in Baidoa are not true. They have an agenda, that is why they are circulating such rumours," Ambassador Idris explained. "Moreover, the autonomous Somali region of Ethiopia is not impacted by developments in Somalia". Ethiopia is also working hand- in-glove with the United States' Anti- Terror Task Force based in neighbouring Djibouti.

"What concerns us is the presence of well-trained, well-armed terrorists on Somali soil who could destabilise Ethiopia," Ambassador Idris said.

The Ethiopian government is especially concerned about two Ethiopian armed opposition groups, the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) and the Ogadeni National Liberation Front (ONLF). The two organisations are suspected of having a close working relationship with the Islamic Courts. Both the OLF and the ONLF have bases in Somalia. Ethiopia deployed troops in Somalia in 1993 and again in 1996 to crush the Al-Itihad Al-Islami.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, who usurped power in 1991, the very year the Somali government of dictator Ziad Barre was toppled and the Somali state degenerated into chaos, is well acquainted with Mogadishu. He sojourned there with Eritrean President Isayas Afeworki. Ethiopia works closely with the Sana'a Forum for Co-operation (SFC) -- a grouping of Yemen, Sudan and Ethiopia. The SFC urged the Islamic Courts militias to halt military action throughout Somalia.

Somalis, on the whole, are against Ethiopian military presence in the country and the Islamic Courts are making much political capital out of the supposed deployment of Ethiopian troops in the country.

"I am calling on the Somali people to wage a holy war against the Ethiopian in Baidoa," declared Sheikh Hassan Dhaher Aweis, the head of the self-styled Somali Supreme Islamic Courts Council -- the new and somewhat clumsy name for the Islamic Courts Union. "The Ethiopians came to protect a government which they set up to advance their interests," he added.

"[President] Abdullah Yusuf is in the pocket of Ethiopia. He has been a servant of Ethiopia for a long time," Aweis explained. An increasing number of Somalis whose nationalistic sentiment is running high agree with Aweis. Indeed, the close collaboration between the Somali President and Addis Ababa might cost him dearly and lead to his downfall.

Whether for real or for show, Gedi accused Egypt, Iran and Libya of providing tacit support to the Islamic Courts. There is also talk of the Islamic Courts militias purchasing and receiving for free weapons from several oil-rich Arab Gulf states. Eritrea is also supposed to be supporting the Islamic Courts.

These are testing times for Somali President Abdallah Yusuf, as well. The Ethiopian-backed Yusuf was elected president by Somali lawmakers in Kenya in October 2004. Then there were inevitable hopes for a government that raised so many expectations. Much of the early euphoria was of course misplaced.

President Yusuf backs Gedi and is enlisting the support of members of the Somali Parliament in Baidoa -- a city 200 km northwest of Mogadishu, which is now the seat of the transitional government of Somalia.

Undaunted, he is trying to restore the Somali people's trust in the TFG. To be fair to President Yusuf, he shed a good many of his authoritarian tendencies which were much in evidence when he ruled the enclave of Puntland, in northeast Somalia, with an iron fist.

Political tensions in the country are palpable. Last Saturday was the funeral of Abdallah Deeraw Isaaq, assassinated on Friday outside a mosque in Baidoa. Isaaq was the TFG's minister of constitutional and federal affairs.

The TFG and the Islamic Courts worked together at first. But the honeymoon was not to last for long. Aweis, now head of the 88-strong legislative Shura Council, was in the 1990s the head of an organisation branded a terrorist group by the United States -- Al-Itihad Al-Islami. The group was routed by the Ethiopians. A new eight-member executive committee chaired by Sheikh Sherif Ahmed has also been set up.

All hopes are now pinned on Somali peace talks in Khartoum. But the Islamic Courts are reluctant to attend. "As long as the Ethiopians are in our country we will not attend the talks," Aweis said. All this must feel like a new lease of life for Aweis. The Ethiopians were determined to finish him off. Indeed, Aweis once stared death in the face. "The peace talks in Khartoum are all-important. It is imperative that the parties concerned attend," the Somali Ambassador to Egypt Abdallah Hassan Mahmoud told Al-Ahram Weekly.

The TFG and the Islamic Courts can perhaps save Somalia together, and they can do many useful things for Somalis.