Not over yet

By Salama A Salama

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I was away when all hell broke loose in the region. The mayhem I had to witness from Europe is, in my opinion, a taste of things to come. From now on, outsiders will be deciding the future of this region, not necessarily in consultation with the locals. That's what makes the tragedy in Lebanon even more disagreeable. Remember what happened in Croatia, Bosnia and Kosovo. This is what the major powers have in store for us. Let me remind you of what had happened in the early days of the war. The first thing that Europe attended to was the speedy evacuation of its nationals from Lebanon.

Senior European and US officials came to the region to seek guarantees from Israel that foreigners could be shipped or flown to Cyprus and other safe countries. The humanitarian and political catastrophe in Lebanon didn't seem to matter, not even when the fighting took a brutal turn, nor when it became clear that the aim of the operation was much bigger than sheer retaliation or Israel's desire to secure the release of two Israeli soldiers.

The Arabs were given misleading signals and for some reason they played along. Israel and the US claimed that the operation was directed against Hizbullah, not against the Lebanese or the Arab people. Acting with US blessing and European acquiescence, Israel then proceeded with its job; namely, to eradicate so-called Shia terror. Hizbullah was an obvious target, for both Bush and Blair see the group as an obstacle to the birth of a new Middle East. Israel was now acting with immunity. It had a mission and its mission was to safeguard its security, confront Iran's regional influence, and make the region a better place for democracy. Or that's what we were told.

For two weeks, the US obstructed international intervention, persuading its European allies that Israel needed time to destroy the rockets of Hizbullah and dismantle the infrastructure of the resistance. Meanwhile, Arab officials got busy contemplating the responsibility of Hizbullah for what happened. Many voiced the view that Hizbullah was nothing but a stooge for the Iranians. Why else would it trigger a conflict that had nothing to do with Arab concerns and interests? Hizbullah, Syria and Iran were blamed. But Arab officials made sure not to provoke America or Israel. Few were willing to admit that Hizbullah was doing something extraordinary, at least by showing Israel that military might is not enough to sort the region out.

Arab analysts went out of their way to show that Hizbullah lost and Israel won. And yet respectable Western commentators begged to differ. Israel may have wrecked much of Lebanon, but it couldn't get its soldiers back, nor was it able to destroy Hizbullah and its rockets. Meanwhile, Hizbullah has grown in stature in Lebanon and the region. Neither the Lebanese army nor international forces will be able to eliminate the political and military presence of Hizbullah. And should fighting erupt once again, Hizbullah will be the only force able to fight off the Israelis.

Olmert and his military commanders have a lot of explaining to do at home. It is significant that several Israeli officials have called for talks with Syria. But much of what will happen in Israel depends on US strategy for the region. The Arabs, meanwhile, seem to have lost their bearings. The future of the region has been appropriated by two groups: the US and Israel, with European backing; and Iran, Syria, Hizbullah and Iraq's Shias. The war is not over yet. Fighting may flare up at any time, especially if the US gets the UN to pass another resolution calling for Hizbullah's disarmament.