No-win situation

How long will the Middle East remain in a state of no war, no peace? Doaa El-Bey provides some answers

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A number of writers covering the current conflict between the forces of peace and war in the Middle East seemed convinced the latter will emerge victorious.

In the London-based daily Al-Hayat on Sunday Adel Malek questioned whether the war against Lebanon would open the gate for regional peace. He believed that wars are usually followed by periods of peace but in the "Lebanese case" the war could escalate the conflict and accentuate differences in important as well as less important matters.

Malek said the war is not yet over. The Israeli war against Lebanon is just a phase in a series of phases that Israel is planning. In these stages, it will resort to kidnapping and killing senior members of Hizbullah and the Lebanese government.

"Beirut is likely to suffer from this war for a long time because Israel has not completely withdrawn from Lebanon and it has left more than 100,000 clustre bombs that could explode at any time," Malek wrote.

He believed the Iranian nuclear programme could be another thorny issue that might threaten peace in the region given the fact that there is no sign of compromise on the part of Iran, or the US and Europe.

"In order to reverse its defeat in Lebanon, Israel will try to launch a swift attack on Iran on the pretext that it poses a threat to Israeli and American national security as well as to international peace," he wrote.

Erfan Nizameddin wrote in the same newspaper on Monday that the Arab countries are passively monitoring the conflict between the forces that are calling for peace in the Middle East and the ones advocating war.

International efforts that managed to issue Resolution 1701 did not resolve pending issues once and for all. "As a result, the truce in Lebanon is fragile and could be broken at any time for various reasons. In this case, war to destroy Lebanon could resume," Nizameddin wrote.

He believed that unless there was an international détente on issues like concluding a permanent cease-fire, defining a clear mechanism to execute Resolution 1701, giving UNIFIL forces clear tasks, and taking steps to reach another Security Council resolution that could resolve pending issues for good, peace cannot prevail in the region.

Nizameddin added that there are factors that could help peace get a foothold in the region, including lessons learnt from the Israeli war in Lebanon that would deter any party from resuming war and the presence of international forces in Lebanon which would stop another confrontation and protect southern Lebanon.

He agreed with Malek that wars are usually followed by peace initiatives. "The 1967 War was followed by Security Council Resolution 242; 1973 War was followed by several initiatives that were crowned by the Camp David accords; the second (1991) Gulf war led to the Madrid conference. At present one cannot rule out a possible initiative for permanent and comprehensive peace in the region," Nizameddin added.

Walid Abu Murshed wrote in the London-based daily Asharq Al-Awsat that Lebanon's state of no peace no war was dangerous as well as fragile. He viewed Lebanon on another crossroads, monitored by international forces this time.

Abu Murshed wrote that restoring the authority of the Lebanese government could be a big stabilising factor for the future of Lebanon.

Abdel-Wahab Badrakhan wrote in the United Arab Emirates daily Al-Ittihad that the Arab parties, which are convinced that the peace process initiated by the second Gulf war is dead, are looking for another formula for peace in the region.

"We should be after a more comprehensive peace that would contain the growing instability in the region. We were initially after peace in Palestine, but we failed. Then we sought peace in Iraq and it has proven hard to reach. We should seek peace for Syria, Lebanon, Sudan and Somalia in order for it to last," he wrote.

Badrakhan criticised the US for linking peace to Iran's nuclear programme. By so doing, he added, the US involved Iran in Arab issues, failed moderate Arabs and put an end to the peace process. He concluded by asking about the fate of any Arab vision for a new peace process in the Middle East when both Israel and the US do not see any good in having peace in the region.