Seculars lose

The Somali interim government and the Islamic Courts seem finally to be coming to peaceful terms, writes Gamal Nkrumah

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An armed gunman from the Islamic Courts guards crowds of Somali women during a demonstration in Mogadishu on Tuesday. More than 3,000 people gathered in Somalia's capital vowing to wage a holy war against any foreign peacekeepers who enter the country

What politicians say may not always tally with how they behave. Somali politicians are no exception to this universal rule. Be that as it may, the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) of Somalia, based in the central Somali city of Baidoa, a city 200 kilometres northwest of Mogadishu, the Somali capital, and the Islamic Courts, with their headquarters in Mogadishu, have finally patched it up. After three days of serious negotiations, both sides affirmed an earlier truce and signed a deal, part of a broader accord. The deal was struck under the auspices of the Arab League in the Sudanese capital Khartoum Monday.

The intervention of the Arab League was of vital importance. The venue of the talks was also critically important: the Sudanese government is regarded as Islamist enough to please the Islamic Courts of Somalia. Nevertheless, the coalition government of national unity in Khartoum does include secularists, including Vice President Salva Kiir, leader of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement. As such, Khartoum is acceptable to the TFG of Somalia.

Sudan is also not directly embroiled in Somali affairs. Somalia's neighbours, Ethiopia and Eritrea, are seen as being deeply entangled in the Somali crisis. Ethiopia is considered the chief backer of the TFG -- indeed, many Somalis believe that the TFG could not continue to claim credibility from its besieged bastion of Baidoa without Ethiopian support. Ethiopia's rival Eritrea, on the other hand, is regarded as a strong supporter of the Islamic Courts. Neighbouring Djibouti and Kenya are suspicious of the Islamic Courts. The United States has a huge anti-terrorist task force based in Djibouti.

Even though the peace deal was widely hailed as a success, it remains to be seen whether peace will hold. There is a lot of ambiguity about the details of the deal. What is clear, however, is that the Islamic Courts militia and the forces of the TFG are to be amalgamated into the nucleus of a national army. This was no small feat as far as the Arab League is concerned. It is celebrated as one of the few positive accomplishments of the league in recent years.

The Islamic Courts took control of Mogadishu in June and the TFG believes that they are pushing the envelope too far. Secularists head the TFG, though to say so openly in Somalia today is considered somewhat criminal. To claim any identity other than an Islamic one has virtually become an offence. The Islamic Courts are taking full advantage of the new Zeitgest engulfing the country. Islamic Courts leaders know all too well that enhancing their Islamic credentials will only make them more popular. They realise that it is the best way to lasting recognition.

The Islamic Courts are using their newfound prowess as pretext for a harsh crackdown on those they view as secularists. They have instituted strict Islamic Shariah laws. Those found meddling with narcotics have been publicly flogged. Those accused of adultery stoned, or publicly executed. Women in the Somali capital have been forced to wear Islamic-prescribed dress. The consumption of alcoholic beverages is strictly forbidden.

The TFG is suspicious of these measures, but top officials in the largely secularist government cannot openly speak their minds. Indeed, there are a number of Islamist sympathisers in the current government. Some 70 members of the 275-strong parliament are regarded as Islamic militants. Unfortunately, this is not obvious to everybody in the West.

One of the main figures representing the forces of secularism in Somalia today is Somali Prime Minister Ali Mohamed Gedi. Gedi survived a no-confidence vote last month. The motion to impeach the Somali prime minister needed 138 votes to pass, but received 126. It was a narrow escape.

The composition of the TFG of Somalia was changed and the number of ministers drastically reduced. The majority of Somalis have obviously opted for an Islamist administration, and the TFG must respect the resulting verdict of the people, even if this means the country is to run by the Islamic Courts.

Ethiopia, a key player in Somali affairs, has praised the Khartoum agreement. "We are working closely with the Somali government which is recognised by the African Union, the Intergovernmental Authority for Development (IGAD) and the United Nations," Ethiopia's Ambassador to Egypt Ibrahim Idris told Al-Ahram Weekly.

"Ethiopia has no troops on Somali soil. The persistent rumours emanating from Mogadishu that we have troops in Baidoa are not true. They have an agenda, that is why they are circulating such rumours," Ambassador Idris explained. Somalis, on the whole, are against Ethiopian military presence in the country and the Islamic Courts are making much political capital out of the supposed deployment of Ethiopian troops in the country.

Ethiopia is also active in the Sanaa Forum for Cooperation (SFC) -- a grouping of Yemen, Sudan and Ethiopia. The SFC urged the Islamic Courts militias to halt military action throughout Somalia.

Somali government officials are equally in celebratory mood. "At last we are moving in the right direction," Somali Ambassador to Egypt Abdallah Hassan Mahmoud told Al-Ahram Weekly. On the other hand, militant Islamist figures like Sheikh Hassan Dhaher Aweis, the head of the self-styled Somali Supreme Islamic Courts Council -- the new and somewhat clumsy name for the Islamic Courts Union -- have been more muted in responding to the Khartoum agreement.

In the end, the only assurance of peace is to be found in adhering to the will of the people of Somalia. The gut instincts of the Islamic Courts appear in tune with popular sentiment, as the TFG appears to concede. The question now is how secular forces will continue to fight for their convictions without rocking the peace boat too harshly.