Avoiding dissolution

Federalism is back on the agenda in Iraq but is as divisive now as it ever was, writes Firas Al-Atraqchi

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Avoiding dissolution

As Iraq's downward spiral of violence continues unabated with sectarian killings and attacks on US forces again on the rise, many are questioning if the country is in a state of chaos or the verge of collapse. Opinion echoed by Iraqis and regional experts have sounded the same alarm: Iraq must not be permitted to enter the path towards partition.

Such concerns come at a time when Iraq's parliament is debating whether to table the issue of federalism as promised in the constitution and how to combat violence that is claiming the lives of thousands of Iraqis every month.

One scheme put forward by members of the largest political bloc in power -- the United Iraqi Alliance (UIA) -- suggests breaking Iraq up into semi-autonomous regions with heavily patrolled borders to stem the violence. But the author of the recently published Journey of the Jihadist, Fawaz Gerges, says Iraq is descending into an existential crisis that threatens its very existence. "I think Iraq is spiralling out of control," Gerges told Al-Ahram Weekly. "What alarms me the most is that leading policymakers in the US and Iraq are openly talking of splitting the country into three separate nations." It is this kind of realpolitik that has some Iraqi politicians urging immediate action to keep the country intact. Iraqi parliament speaker Mahmoud Al-Mashhadani warned fellow MPs last week that the government had only a few months to resolve its differences and forge a national unity-based platform to avert political and social disarray.

Iraqi writer Wafaa Al-Natheema also believes that disintegration of the country can be avoided "as long as" Iraqis unite to say "no" and take action to "prevent it from happening". "No matter how powerful and nuclear-filled-to-the-teeth is the enemy, Iraq will not be partitioned if the vast majority of Iraqis say 'no' and unite in their refusal," she told the Weekly. However, Al-Natheema warns that if Iraqis do not seriously address the current debate in parliament and steadfastly oppose partition, they will find themselves in an untenable situation.

Ahead of a 22 October deadline on reaching a solution on how to federate Iraq's 18 provinces, the debate among Iraqi politicians has often been tumultuous with some Shia and Kurdish parties calling for division of the country into three regions -- Kurds in the north, Sunnis in the centre, Shia in the south. The Sunni community is opposed to this plan and favours a strong central government.

The debate has seen divisions emerge even within the Shia community with some, such as cleric Muqtada Sadr's supporters -- considered allies of the UIA -- demanding Iraq remain united. With so many conflicting points of view on how to curb the violence and move the country forward, Iraqis are finding themselves only reiterating calls for national unity.

Maki Al-Nazzal, an Iraqi political analyst, says Sunni groups as well as the majority of Shia Iraqis are against the idea of a divided country. "It is completely in the hands of the US administration to keep Iraq united," he says. "This arouses the question of whether it was the American plan from the beginning to partition Iraq. So US credibility is again being tested and Iraqis will hold the US responsible for the unity of their country."

Meanwhile, Iraqi politicians are continuing to trade barbs over issues provincial partitioning. Kurdish leaders such as Masoud Barzani, have refused to fly the Iraqi flag in areas under their jurisdiction, much to the ire of the Nuri Al-Maliki government. Iraqi President Jalal Talabani has said it is time to change the "Saddamist" flag whereas other factions have vowed opposition to it being replaced.

Gerges believes that precisely this kind of Iraqi political wrangling could sign the country's death warrant. "In Iraq, internally, Iraqi politicians do not see eye-to-eye; they want a divorce not a marriage," he said.

"Pivotal leaders within the Shia and Kurdish communities are openly calling for decentralisation into provincial federalism. This is basically what [Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq leader Abdul-Aziz] Al-Hakim wants and this is a code phrase for ultimate separation." Gerges underlined that the Sunni Arab community is intrinsically opposed to the concepts of federalism and decentralising governance in the oil-rich country.

On Sunday, the Iraqi parliament was forced to adjourn and postpone debate over the issue when it succumbed to angry diatribes exchanged by MPs from both sides of the aisle. Parties headed by former Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, Ahmed Chalabi, and all Sunni coalitions were joined by Sadr's supporters in staging a boycott of the proceedings.

Gerges believes that ultimately the burden of unity should be on the Iraqi government. "Firstly, is it willing to make the necessary concessions to keep Iraq united? Secondly, to what extent are some Iraqi politicians really willing to go to keep it united?" he asked.

But Zeyad, a former Iraqi dentist who has been reporting on Iraq in his blog, believes partition may be "a de facto situation on the ground," which could ultimately harm US interests in the region. "It's not in the interest of the US to carve three states out of Iraq, or even to create a tripartite state or a weak confederative state," he said.

"A Shia state in the south will further embolden the Shia population in oil-rich regions of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Bahrain to secede. Such a state, if it ever comes to realisation, will only serve Iran's interest, granting it a strong foothold into the Arab heartland. Likewise, an independent Kurdish state in the north would invite regional instability, with Turkey, and possibly Syria and Iran, rushing in to crush this fledging state," Zeyad added.

Fears of a regional war and involvement in Iraqi internal affairs by its neighbours may have prompted Al-Maliki's trip to Tehran Tuesday. Iraqi officials said that he would stress the need for strong neighbourly ties while respecting the integrity of internal affairs.

Whether this will affect the current partition debate in Iraq is debatable. Iraqis feel partition would be a decision that could never be reversed. "If Iraq will be partitioned, there will be no going back to how it used to be before partition, especially in the case of Kurdistan. It will sadly be like the North and South Korean experience," Al-Natheema said.