Cautious calculations

The debate over the extent of official commitment to reviving Egypt's nuclear programme continues to fizzle, reports Dina Ezzat

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Four-hundred Egyptian scientists and concerned intellectuals this week appealed to the government to move more quickly towards reviving Egypt's peaceful nuclear programme.

The final statement of the conference of the Administration Society that convened on Sunday in Alexandria stressed that reviving the programme will enhance Egypt's strategic interests and as such should be prioritised by the government.

While the appeal is not the first of its kind, it is unlikely to be the last. The possible revival of a programme that was put on hold in the mid-1980s -- ostensibly due to safety fears in the aftermath of the Chernobyl disaster -- was touted earlier this year by Gamal Mubarak, younger son of President Hosni Mubarak and the assistant secretary- general of the ruling National Democratic Party. The proposal appeared to meet the widespread support in governmental, academic and popular circles.

In the run up of President Mubarak's recent visit to Russia and China -- both nuclear powers -- speculation was rife that Egypt is poised to actively begin work on implementing the nuclear proposal forwarded by Gamal Mubarak and thus answer back those critics who had suggested that the whole issue was no more than a ploy to help the younger Mubarak win popular support. Statements made by government officials to the effect that President Mubarak would sound out what help Moscow and Beijing might offer Egypt in its efforts to revive its peaceful nuclear programme fuelled the speculation. This has led to growing expectations that after returning from his trip, Mubarak would be in a position to formally declare that the construction of Egypt's first peaceful nuclear power plant was about to begin.

Such expectations have not been met. The joint statement issued at the end of talks between President Mubarak and his Chinese counterpart Hu Jintau hinted at future cooperation but no new memorandum of understanding or agreement of cooperation on peaceful uses of nuclear energy was signed during Mubarak's visit.

This in turn led to rumours not only that Egypt was having second thoughts but that Washington, which had unambiguously welcomed Cairo's plans to revive its nuclear programme, was now insisting that future cooperation on the matter be restricted to the US -- excluding Russia and China.

Such speculations led to a round of denials in Cairo, though they were perhaps more strenuous than convincing.

Informed sources, speaking on condition of anonymity, insist that Washington has placed no conditions on its support of Egypt's right to pursue peaceful nuclear energy.

"This is out of the question. The US knows very well that Egypt is a sovereign state that will make its own decisions based on its national interests," said one source.

The source added that a specific agreement to be signed by the Egyptian and Chinese heads of state during their talks in Beijing had never been on the table.

"Egypt is still exploring its options. We first of all have to decide on what kind of project we want to pursue before signing agreements with any partners," he said.

In Moscow, though, the story is different: Mubarak had been expected to sign an agreement of cooperation on the peaceful uses of nuclear energy with Russian President Vladimir Putin. It is just that the agreement was not ready for signing by the time Mubarak was due to leave the Russian capital for Beijing, say presidential sources, who insist this should not be taken as an indication that Cairo will allow the US to exercise undue influence over its nuclear programme.

Egypt and Russia, say sources, have spent almost four years negotiating the agreement; the problem was that it did not include provisions for Egypt reviving its own nuclear power programme. It was therefore pointless, they say, for the two to sign an agreement that would need almost immediate revision to accommodate Egypt's newly declared ambitions.

Reacting to what they claim is sluggishness on the part of the government to revive Egypt's nuclear programme, some critics now claim that the ruling party is no more committed to nuclear power than in the past. Government officials, though, say that the opposite is true, stressing that there is commitment at the highest levels, it is just a matter of how the programme is to be implemented, and when.