Under siege

Lebanon remains hostage to local and regional rivalries, Omayma Abdel-Latif reports from Beirut

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The peaceful show of force that the Lebanese opposition staged, setting out on an open-ended sit-in in Sahet Riyad Al-Solh to bring down the Western-backed government of Fouad Al-Siniora, did not last long. The festive climate that engulfed the downtown area of Beirut during the first three days of the protest was overshadowed on the fourth day by the killing of Ahmed Mahmoud, first victim on the altar of political rivalry and sectarian tension that is gripping the nation in an manner unprecedented since the end of the civil war in 1990.

Twenty-year-old Mahmoud, a member of the Amal movement, was shot dead on his way home in Mahlet Qasqas Sunday evening. The incident heightened the worst fears of many; that political tension is likely to translate into militant confrontation. Whether or not this incident is a threshold drifting towards cycles of vengeance is yet unclear. The killing, however, added fuel to an already tense situation, deepening the sense of enmity, suspicion and fear among large sections of Lebanese society.

Almost one week after the sit-in, the picture is still grim. Political rivals remain deadlocked, with no sign of the situation abating. To add to an already complicated situation, Arab intervention through the so-called axis of moderate Arab regimes resolved nothing. The Arab League's secretary-general proposed the compromise of giving the opposition one third of the government in return for reaching consensus over electing a new president, but the plan was not well received within opposition circles.

Political rivals continue to score points against their opponents. A cruel war of words has broken out between Hizbullah and Tayar Al-Mustaqbal (the Future Movement). Al-Manar TV accused what it described as "militia" affiliated to Tayar Al-Mustaqbal of shooting at protesters on their way home, a charge the party vehemently denies. Al-Mustaqbal TV, on the other hand, accused Hizbullah of "sectarian mobilisation", quoting security officials as saying that three Syrians had been arrested in connection with the Mahmoud incident.

What confrontations in Mahlet Qasqas and Tariq Jdeeda have proven is that political tension that spills over into militant action might prove as difficult to control for the opposition as for the government. Embattled Lebanese premier Siniora put the onus on the opposition for resorting to the street without considering the consequences of such a move, demanding that they should return to the negotiating table. The opposition, on the other hand, accuse the government of unleashing its supporters to spread fear and terror among protesters, sabotaging the peaceful demonstration.

The timing of the opposition's move was the heart of political debate. The Western-backed 14 March camp say the timing was deliberate; that it was inspired by the Syrian regime's desire to abort the ratification of an international tribunal to investigate the killing of former prime minister Rafik Al-Hariri. In response, Hizbullah and its political allies -- which include forces long-considered staunch opponents of Syria, like the Free Patriotic Movement of General Michel Aoun -- dismiss the charge, arguing that the opposition has legitimate political demands that should be addressed by the government.

Faced with the challenge of keeping the street under control while nonetheless vocal, Hizbullah's Secretary- General Hassan Nasrallah pledged in his latest speech that national unity was a red line. He pressed supporters not to respond to provocations from other parties. But this is wishful thinking while media coverage of the events only fuels fear and suspicion. This is particularly true for both Al-Manar TV and Al-Mustaqbal TV.

Undoubtedly, resorting to the street was a move that Hizbullah took cautiously, painstakingly planning for. In Hizbullah's view, the government has proven an utter failure on both domestic and region fronts. Its conduct during the Israeli war on Lebanon and its mishandling of the reconstruction process has exposed it as bankrupt. However, as much as the Siniora government is facing a serious challenge, Hizbullah, as the main moderator of the protest movement, is taxed also.

Indeed, this is perhaps the first time the movement decided to engage in the domestic arena with full force. Over 24 years of its existence, the party always steered clear of Lebanese politics, focusing instead on its strategic goal of resisting Israel. For Hizbullah, what is at stake is the party's ability to steer the protest movement clear of civil strife. This might explain why the party took upon itself responsibility for logistics. An estimated 20,000 members of Hizbullah were said to have been organising the crowd, making sure that the only flag carried was the Lebanese flag. Tens of tents were set up, with free rations of food, water and even newspapers distributed to protesters. The symbols, the banners, the songs and the discourse reflected a unity of purpose among different forces constituting the protest movement. Ideological and religious differences were put aside in favour of consensus over one main issue: a government of national unity now. To this end, organisers spared no effort in their attempt to vilify Siniora and his allies, mocking their political conduct and calling for their removal from power.

Street politics aside, the current political crisis appears to many as yet another instance in which Lebanon has become an object and victim of what one Lebanese sociologist described as "the inside-outside" dynamic. In other words, any attempt to understand the present political crisis in Lebanon independent of its regional and international context is doomed to failure. As one political observer deftly put it, the current political impasse is one that is sustained with outside assistance, thereby confirming the complexities of interlocking local, national, regional and international rivalries. Understanding the political rivalry between the US and Iran in the Middle East, for example, is critical to understanding Lebanon's current crisis.

"Lebanon continues to be the proxy battleground for other people's wars and the surrogate victim of unresolved regional and global tension," the observer told Al-Ahram Weekly.