The sane scenario

By Al-Sayed Eliwa

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The Palestinian scene is roiling as a result of Israeli assaults and the pressure of siege and starvation. Seven months have passed with Fatah and Hamas clashing over the exercise of authority and the imposition of direction on the ground.

Despite the enemy lying in wait, disputes have not been settled between the two competitors, despite the many purely formal meetings, repeated bickering, and forced intervention.

Amid the fog of ambiguity and changing circumstances, we can discern six possible scenarios:

- The formation of a coalition, national unity government.

- The emergence of a technocratic, impartial government with no political experience.

- A security coup by a Fatah faction or Hamas's executive force.

- A return to the citizenry for a new mandate through democratic parliamentary elections.

- The eruption of a third Intifada against the occupation, the current siege, and starvation.

- The eruption of civil war and security chaos.

The absence of a necessary condition may preclude any one of these scenarios, but the basic conditions exist for all; the continuation of the Israeli occupation, the strong foothold gained by the Israeli religious right, and sharp, angry Palestinian reactions, not to mention regional flare-ups and hot spots in Lebanon, Iraq and Iran.

The sixth scenario is perhaps the most dangerous, especially given that regional and international factors may encourage it. As such, the first scenario, a national unity government, is the best alternative, because it can only be based on a political accommodation among all parties.

This week's Soapbox speaker is a professor of political science at Helwan University.