Tricky triangle

Amid more bloodshed in the occupied territories, Lebanon and Iraq, Doaa El-Bey seeks to connect the dots

---

While violence is soaring in Gaza, Beirut and Baghdad, which Rafiq Khouri described as "the triangle of crises", there is hardly any sign of a possible settlement. In the Lebanese daily Al-Anwar Khouri said that although each crisis was a problem onto itself, the three are governed by regional and international games in the region. "The Israeli occupation did not stop the Palestinian parties from fighting among themselves rather than confronting the occupier; the US occupation did not prevent the Iraqis from racial and sectarian fighting that took the life of civilians; and the threat of political and economic destruction in Lebanon did not prompt the warring parties to settle their political differences."

Writers differed over whether the King Abdullah initiative to hold a reconciliation meeting of the Palestinian parties in Mecca could provide a breakthrough for the Palestinians. Abdullah Iskandar wrote in the London-based daily Al-Hayat that any initiative that links ending inter-Palestinian fighting and withdrawing gunmen from the streets would fail. Iskandar said Fatah gunmen, who are members of the Palestinian police force, and Hamas gunmen, who belong to the executive force, consider themselves the legitimate force of the party they belong to. As a result, their weapons have become part and parcel of the political process.

Amid their fighting, they forgot their common cause -- freeing their land from the Israeli occupation -- and engaged in exchanging mutual accusations of working according to the agenda of external powers. Fatah accuses Hamas of being influenced by the Iranian-Syrian agenda while Hamas charges Fatah with carrying out an American-Israeli agenda.

However, Iskandar expressed hope that quick Palestinian acceptance of the initiative will come after a careful study of its details, namely placing the Palestinian issue in its proper perspective, as the issue of all the Palestinians, Arabs and Muslims. Not any single party can resolve it unilaterally and impose its point of view on all the other parties.

Jaafar Mohamed Ahmed regarded the Saudi initiative as an important political breakthrough that aims to stop bloodshed, resolve inter-Palestinian differences through dialogue and form a national unity government.

"Gaza is now in dire need of national unity especially after Israeli newspapers wrote that the Strip will be the first target for new Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi in order to restore the image of the Israeli army as a deterrent power," Ahmed wrote in the United Arab Emirates daily Al-Khaleej.

The Saudi-Iranian coordination to ease tension in Lebanon was regarded as a positive step in the short run. Abdel-Rahman Al-Rashed viewed it as proof that regional cooperation could help in defusing tension in the region. However, Al-Rashed wrote in the London-based daily Asharq Al-Awsat it proved that "internal fighting in Lebanon is a mere puppet show that is controlled by external powers."

Mohamed Al-Said Idris wrote in Al-Khaleej that the difference between Saudi Arabia and Iran in their vision of the Middle East is not the only obstacle towards mutual coordination between the two states which could lead to redrawing the map of coalitions in the region. The more serious obstacle is the present regional and international coalitions in the region. Due to the strong Iranian-Syrian relationship, it is difficult to establish a Saudi-Iranian rapprochement without a Saudi-Syrian one. On the other hand, the Saudi-American relationship could impede any progress in Saudi-Iranian ties.

In Baghdad, Bush's new strategy for Iraq is further proving its failure on the ground. Ghassan Al-Azey reiterated the view of many commentators and writers that the new strategy is not new at all. He wrote in Al-Khaleej that Bush was simply trying to give himself one last chance after he used general and ambiguous words to describe the US failure in Iraq which he should be responsible for.

Azey agreed with the viewpoint of many military experts that the number of extra soldiers which Bush dispatched to Iraq are "too little, too late". But he focused on two other weak points in the strategy: that it depends entirely on an unprejudiced Iraqi government as the key to a settlement whereas in fact the present government is a biased party. Second, the strategy is trying to resolve an Iraqi political problem via American military ways.

Azey added the success of the strategy depends on the cooperation of neighbouring countries. But instead of following the Baker-Hamilton recommendations that call for improving relations with Iran and Syria, Bush decided to escalate his confrontation with the two states by accusing them of supporting terrorism.

Ghassan Al-Imam warned that Bush's ability to control the military situation in Iraq could fail for several reasons, namely his waning influence and credibility inside and outside the US, the strong opposition in Iraq and the poor performance of the Iraqi government. "Thus the situation in Iraq poses a real danger to the security and stability of all the Arab states that rushed to accept Bush's new strategy which allegedly aims at creating a balance between the ruling Shia majority and the opposing Sunni minority," Al-Imam wrote in Asharq Al-Awsat.