Something's got to give

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On Monday, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is expected to hold a three-way meeting with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert in what should be, or is at least being touted as, a fresh attempt to revive Palestinian-Israeli negotiations, this time with the aim of concluding a final settlement. However, it is very much an open question whether the tripartite gathering will herald any good news as such.

News from Washington suggests to some that the top American diplomat is somewhat reluctant to hold the meeting in the first place in view of the administration's displeasure over last week's deal reached in Mecca. Rice told Abbas more than once that the US was hoping that Fatah would not join any national unity government with Hamas before the latter changes its stance on recognising the state of Israel. American unease with Hamas is found in the pressure it is exerting on all international and regional parties to maintain the economic sanctions imposed on the Palestinian people following their election of a Hamas government.

News from Israel also portends a new phase of Israeli manoeuvering. Sources close to Olmert are already leaking news to the press that he might not be in a position to discuss a final settlement with Abbas -- always being described as moderate but weak by Olmert's entourage -- in view of the deal struck between Fatah and Hamas.

And while being sworn in as Israel's new chief of staff, Gabi Ashkenazi indicated a continued determination by Israel to keep itself on a war footing. His comments on the issue, "The time has not yet come to sheath our sword... It must remain sharpened and honed," provides evidence that despite Israel's repeated claims of seeking peace, perpetuating the conflict is also one of Israel's major aims.

Thus, the mood is not exactly one of genuine dedication to peace-making. It is rather, as many have warned, simply conducive to meetings and more meetings without the substance being produced.

If Rice is coming to the region to put on a new round of theatrics then she might as well save her breath and try instead to work with her influential deputy John Negroponti to help the US extricate itself from the Iraqi quagmire and prevent any new potential crisis with Iran.

On the other hand, if Rice is serious in wanting to secure for its sadly defeated administration a foreign policy success story through brokering the initial phases of a final Palestinian- Israeli peace deal, then it would need to be in a position to plainly tell the Israeli government that it cannot have peace, recognition and occupied territories. Something's got to give.