Democratic diversity

James Zoghby* casts an eye over Democratic contenders for the White House

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To write this early about the 2008 race for the White House is, at best, a risky proposition. The field is deep, the candidates varied and the process unpredictable. Observations, let alone predictions, can easily be eclipsed by developments between now and the first contests in Iowa and New Hampshire in January next year, and already ten Democrats and 13 Republicans have either announced their intentions to run or appear likely to do so.

Last weekend I attended the Democratic National Committee meeting where all ten Democrats delivered speeches before the party's leaders. I came away from the event with a number of reflections. First is the fact that this is an extremely diverse field which presents real choices for Democratic voters, and by diversity I don't mean gender, race and ethnicity, though these factors do represent an exciting feature of the contest. Listening to the Democratic hopefuls, what struck home were the very distinctive messages, and even meta-messages, conveyed.

There were differences, of course, in how several of the key issues were addressed, though not so great as to obscure a consensual Democratic case for 2008: fixing the nation's broken healthcare, education and immigration systems; rejection of the Bush administration's unilateralism in foreign affairs in favour of restoring America's diplomatic leadership; protecting the middle classes and poor from the ravages of unfair tax cuts and loss of employment opportunities -- these are the core campaigning issues. Given the list of problems to be addressed some differences in the solutions proposed are inevitable. They are not so great, however, as the candidates may attempt to project them in their efforts to appeal to various segments of Democratic voters. The real differences lay elsewhere, on a deeper level.

Hilary Clinton, for example, far and away the leader in early polls, exudes not only confidence but also an aura of inevitability. After six years of Democratic exile, she promises a return. Her supporters convey the message that only she can win, suggesting to fellow Democrats that they get on the train now, because it's already up and running.

Clinton touts her experience, her ability to do real politics, and her toughness. She is the legacy candidate, her on-target message being she knows how to fight. Without saying more she reminds the faithful of both past glories and hurts.

The suggestions are clear: if you want to win and get back what we had before, I'm the one to get you there.I know who I am, you know who I am, and you know what I can do -- an evident reminder of past candidates who never quite solidified their message.

Former Senator Edwards, who has been campaigning since the Democratic defeat in 2004, has also become a force to be reckoned with. He has targeted core Democratic issues, heightened his profile in key primary states and built a national organisation. Focusing on the emotive issue of "two Americas," he has won support within the liberal wing of the party. Like John Kennedy, he projects powerful images of blight, poverty, the growing gap in health care and the insecurity felt by America's poor and working class, developing a compelling message that resonates with the Democratic faithful.

And then there is Senator Barack Obama. If John Edwards is adopting the John Kennedy persona with his "other America" theme, Obama is a latter-day Bobby Kennedy whose youthful and charismatic message of hope is bringing inspiration to a new generation of voters.

Senator Obama, initially dismissed by some as a flash in the pan, has consolidated his position. His bestselling books and compelling speaking style have not only inspired, but also convey wisdom and deep understanding of some of the most complex issues facing contemporary America.

Through much of his speech at last weekend's Democratic meeting the audience sat spellbound. He did not present a litany of issues and solutions -- those, he promised, would come later. His message was one of hope as he promised to end cynicism and the prevailing culture of "politics as usual". The rapturous applause that greeted his conclusion made it clear that his message resonated.

These three, the current frontrunners and the most intriguing candidates to emerge, by no means exhaust the Democratic field. New Mexico's Governor Bill Richardson and Senator Joseph Biden, Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, point to their strong foreign policy credentials, so necessary to fix America's troubled standing in the world. This is also the message of former General Wesley Clark, who has yet to declare his candidacy.

Connecticut Senator Thomas Dodd brings not only an impressive record in foreign and domestic policy, he is also a forceful speaker who, like Edwards, appeals to traditional Democratic voters. Iowa's two-term former Governor Tom Vilsack presents a steady hand and strong leadership credentials. Then there's Senator Mike Gravel, an anti-war hero from the days of Vietnam, and Congressman Dennis Kucinich, Congress's current anti-war champion. At this early stage none of these seven have made it into double-digits in national or statewide polling, but it remains too early to write anyone off. As Richardson reminded the party faithful, "stay loose" -- this race is just starting.

Domestic or international crisis can change the campaign's dynamics, as can a candidate's mistakes, past or present. Should former Vice President Gore make a late entrance into the campaign, the entire picture could change dramatically.

One thing is clear: the Democrats have one of the richest and most diverse field of candidates for a generation. It will be a fascinating campaign to watch.

* The writer is president of the Washington- based Arab American Institute.