Shifting coalitions

Hakim's dominance seems threatened as the US military admits that force alone will not secure Iraq, writes Nermeen Al-Mufti

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US soldiers look at a wrecked mini-bus in Baghdad's Mustansariyah neighbourhood while Iraqi police stand next to a shell of a rocket that landed in the street following an attack at the Karada district in Baghdad

Over 80 civilians were killed in Iraq last Sunday, only one day after the Baghdad conference was held. The continued violence prompted President Bush to send 4,400 additional troops to Iraq, besides the 22,000 troops who were drafted to the country earlier this year.

Speaking at his first news conference since he arrived in Iraq, David Petraeus, the new commander of US forces, admitted that military means alone could not bring peace to Iraq. "Operation Imposing Law" would last for a few months, during which "major" attacks may still occur, he said.

The map of political alliances is shifting in the country, as politicians seek to place more emphasis on national objectives rather than sectarian allegiance. Al-Fadila Party has pulled out of the (Shia) Coalition List of Abdel Aziz Al-Hakim. The party, which has 15 parliamentary seats, issued a statement saying that: "The first step towards extracting Iraq from its stifling crisis is to dismantle political alliances and refrain from forming them on a sectarian or ethnic basis." The party urged all coalitions to endorse national agendas and "rise above sectarian, partisan, and personal interests."

Former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi has taken a step in this direction. Allawi, a Shia who used to lead the Iraqi List (with 25 parliamentary seats), has persuaded several Sunni groups, including the Reconciliation Front, the Dialogue Front, and the Accord and Liberation Bloc, to join him in a group that would command 80 parliamentary seats. Sunni Reconciliation Front leader, Adnan Al-Duleimi, said that his group and Allawi's Iraqi List had joined ranks to form the Iraqi National Front. Allawi visited Kurdish areas in an attempt to consolidate his ties with the Kurdish List. His efforts are believed to have the blessing of the Americans.

Former National Security Minister Qasem Dawud, along with seven other parliamentarians, withdrew from the Shia Coalition List last year to form a new parliamentary group, the National Solidarity Bloc. Analysts say that Allawi's success in forming a new alliance would be a blow to the Coalition List, which has seen its popularity dwindling of late.

On Saturday, 15 Iraqi opposition groups called for a freeze on political life and urged the formation of a technocratic government to bring about security and stability. The groups said in a statement that the new constitution should be suspended and that elections need to be held under international, Islamic and Arab supervision.

Arab and Western media reporting on the Baghdad summit concluded that it thawed the ice between the US and Syria and Iran. Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki opened the conference, calling on participants to support Iraq in its war "on terror". He said Operation Imposing Law would continue in various parts of the country and promised to clamp down on outlaws "without distinguishing between one armed group and another".

Commenting on the conference, Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari said that agreement was reached "to form three technical committees" to bolster border security and curb terror. He didn't elaborate on the composition of the committees or give a timeframe for their tasks. A conference due to be held in Istanbul next month may discuss these matters, analysts say.

Government spokesman, Ali Al-Dabbagh, described the Baghdad conference as "very positive" and said that Iraq would invite foreign ministers from the region and the G- 8 countries for a meeting in Istanbul in April to reinforce stability in Iraq.

Two mortar shells fell near the Foreign Ministry building as the conference was underway. Two Islamic groups -- Jaysh Al-Rashidin (Army of the Righteous) and the Islamic Army -- claimed responsibility for the attack in two separate statements.

Late last week, over 130 Shia pilgrims were killed while on the way to Karbala to celebrate the 40th day anniversary of the martyrdom of Imam Al-Hussein. Meanwhile, over 300 gunmen associated with Al-Qaeda broke into Badush Prison in the north and managed to free 140 prisoners, most of whom of Arab nationality.