Warming up

Opposition and government forces inch closer towards a deal, but how lasting can a settlement really be, asks Serene Assir in Beirut

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In situations lacking in transparency, hope can become elastic, contrived at will while the real players forge deals far from the public eye. In Lebanon, a country plagued with cynicism resulting from megalomaniac wheeler-dealers assuming public office mainly for economic-cum-messianic goals the hope that is being generated today both relieves and depresses.

On the one hand, the rapprochement between Future Movement leader Saad Al-Hariri and Amal chief Nabih Berri seems to be taking an economically and morally weakened country towards resolution. Statements throughout the week by representatives of both pro- and anti-government force leaders have raised the morale of the Lebanese following weeks of what appeared to be an impasse rendered almost insurmountable by being value-based.

From Hariri's perspective Tuesday morning, only the details of a prospective deal between the two sides remained to be settled. As for Berri, he continues to aim for a deal satisfying both sides, to be struck by the time the Arab summit meets in Riyadh 28 March. Talk of a possible meeting in Riyadh between Lebanese faction heads -- most probably starring Berri and Hariri themselves -- sometime next week to seal such an agreement was also in the offing but not confirmed, mixed with statements from Syrian Foreign Minister Farouk Al-Sharaa denying any attempts to negatively influence or stall the Lebanese political process.

In downtown Beirut, where opposition supporters have been staging an over 100-day sit-in, hope of a solution is almost tangible. "I pray to God the two sides will reach an agreement soon," said 30-year-old Hizbullah supporter Hussein. Similarly, Beirut taxi driver, Osama Itani, appeared to almost hold his breath as he switched on the radio to listen to a morning news bulletin. "You know, I haven't been listening to the news for over a month. The tension exhausted me. But now, I feel it's getting better, the country feels a lot better," he said.

However, what remains to be seen is the exact shape of a deal that could satisfy both sides. Much has been said following two back-to-back, breakthrough meetings between Berri and Hariri over an injection of hope, and as was the case over the Saudis' involvement in the Mecca Accord that brought Fatah and Hamas together following months of deadly factional street fighting, Riyadh's role in cracking the Lebanese impasse has been praised and indeed encouraged both by opposition and government forces.

At this stage, it is obvious the shape of the government will change -- but into what? There continues to be no confirmation as to whether a new cabinet would fall in line with the opposition's demands -- that is, featuring 11 opposition ministers who would thus hold veto power. In an interview with As-Safir newspaper late last week, Prime Minister Fouad Al-Siniora -- himself a member of Hariri's Future Movement -- suggested that Riyadh be the one to appoint the 11th minister, to create a cabinet of 19 ministers from the 14 March bloc, 10 opposition members, and one, as it were, independent minister.

Meanwhile, other prominent members of the 14 March coalition have been kept involved in the ongoing process by Hariri, through visits by the Future Movement head both to former President Amin Al-Gemayel and to Lebanese Forces Chief Samir Geagea. According to a Hariri statement, the various leaders of the 14 March coalition are as close as ever, and are in unanimity over progress made thus far.

In a speech 9 March to hundreds of supporters commemorating Imam Hussein -- who died in Karbala in the year 680 -- Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah went beyond warning of the dangers of potential Sunni-Shia fitna (conflict or division) and pressed for a strictly Lebanese solution to the crisis. He also said he supported "the kind of negotiations" launched between Berri and Hariri the day before, adding one- on-one dialogue would no doubt produce much better results than an overcrowded, emotionally charged political contest.

One has to wonder, however, days into the negotiations and on what appears to be the eve of a Mecca Accord II, what exactly is being determined and how long a given solution can really last. Visiting European Union foreign policy chief, Javier Solana, has also insisted on any potential agreement being fully Lebanese in order for it to be viable, but surely the crisis has already travelled far away from Beirut, spreading itself thin over Washington, Damascus, Brussels, Tehran, and critically Riyadh. It is rather inconvenient that most of the above have been reportedly involved in, directly or otherwise, arming Lebanon's various factions.

"Now more than ever," said university student, Hanin Sobh, "I feel like civil war is inevitable." Asked why, given that a political solution seems to be in the offing, Sobh explained that there was far too much contradiction between two trends -- re-arming and diplomacy -- for the situation to hold for much longer.

Whether or not her prophecy holds, it certainly indicates that on the street the sensation is that however much optimism is being expressed, too little substance is being imparted by factional chiefs for tension to truly subside. On the other hand, silence may just be the best policy in a country all too well known for its endemic political and economic corruption. The question remains; would the Lebanese from across the political spectrum have held out through months of crisis for nothing?