Risky business

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Saddam Hussein's biggest mistake was that he didn't think President Bush was crazy enough to invade Iraq. The invasion was, needless to say, a mad decision, but that didn't stop it from happening. The same thing is now true for Iran. It would be insane for the US to engage in another military adventure in the Middle East, especially against Iran. The US war machine, massive as it is, is totally exhausted. And unlike Iraq, Iran has strong allies: China, Russia and perhaps even the EU.

Iranian military power is much greater than Iraq. And there are 150,000 US troops in Iraq who can become a perfect target for Iranian retaliation. Israel too can pay a heavy price for a US attack on Iran. In short, any attack on Iran is likely to escalate into a regional, if not international, war. So you would think that the current crisis between Washington and Tehran would remain confined to political and economic pressure. Well, think again. There are certainly signs that the US president may once more throw caution to the wind.

The media is running elaborate reports on possible scenarios of a US attack on Iran. The US naval fleet is conducting military drills in the Gulf. And US diplomats are busy telling the world how Sunni-Shia tensions are spiralling out of hand. The participation of non-Arab Sunni countries, such as Pakistan, Turkey, Malaysia and Indonesia, in the recent Arab summit was extraordinary to say the least.

According to reliable reports, the US is trying to pull Israel into this conflict, perhaps as part of a deal involving the future of the Palestinians. And Iran's detention of 15 British sailors may prove the last straw. It is still difficult for one to believe that President Bush would do it again. But relying on his prudence is a risky business. Remember what happened to Saddam.