Iraq's other war

Ahead of a headline meeting on Iraq, doubts continue to grow in Sharm El-Sheikh about the efficacy of the Maliki government, reports Dina Ezzat

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This week, the foreign ministers of Iraq's neighbouring countries, along with Egypt and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and other members of the G8, are meeting in Sharm El-Sheikh to discuss ways of lending political support to the beleaguered Iraqi government as it struggles to establish a semblance of authority in a country largely beyond its control. The consultations precede the launching of the so-called "International Compact with Iraq" in a two- day conference to be held in the Red Sea resort, Thursday, through Friday with the expected participation of 40 delegations of concerned countries and organisations, similarly meant to help bolster Iraq's increasingly unpopular Shia-dominated government.

While Iraqis continue to live in a grey zone between life and death, Al-Ahram Weekly has gained access to the text of resolutions to be adopted by both meetings. The lengthy documents that have been negotiated in exhaustive preparatory meetings over the past week are replete with illusive and generally non-committal language that vaguely offers support which is only dependent on the commitment of the Iraqi government to respond to the demands of key regional and international players, hard to reconcile as such demands might be.

Nonetheless, delegates are determined to appear upbeat. According to statements made earlier in the week by Iraqi Deputy Foreign Minister Labid Al-Abawi, "there is definitely a new spirit in the approach of regional and international players towards Iraq." Italian Ambassador in Cairo Antonio Badini also stressed the "positive atmosphere that prevails", and the "clear acknowledgement" on behalf of all participants in the meetings, of the tough situation which the Iraqi government currently faces, and its "desperate need" for support.

Speaking to reporters yesterday, Ali Al-Dabbagh, spokesman for the Iraqi government, said there is a growing understanding on the part of many countries that stability and security in Iraq are a regional and international collective responsibility, and not just a task to be assigned to the Iraqi government.

Not all participants in this week's consultative meetings agree with this sentiment. Many privately believe the meetings are not so much about lending support to the Iraqi government as helping address the anxieties of the Bush administration, at a time when signs abound of its failure in Iraq. Many Arab and non-Arab diplomats who spoke to the Weekly said this week's event was essentially a photo opportunity for the American press.

In the text of statements to be adopted tomorrow evening, the Iraqi government receives qualified recognition from participants for its efforts to induce a semblance of stability in Iraq. On the other hand, the text includes demands that the Iraqi government take clear steps towards revising many of the policies that until now have been a source of pride for the Shia-dominated ruling regime -- in particular the revision of its stance on de- Baathification.

On the issue of the constitution, the Iraqi government -- and the US administration -- have yet to agree on a clear set of reference points on demanded amendments. On the other hand, the Iraqi government -- with an American green light -- appears committed to withdrawing its tacit support, including provision of refuge, for Shia militias widely accused of large-scale atrocities. The Iraqi government also acknowledged the ongoing civil strife in Iraq, contrary to previous denials, and the need to expand the scope of representation in the reconciliation process.

Meanwhile, no agreement seems in the offing on the controversial issue of the distribution of Iraq's oil revenues, which is a source of considerable inter-Iraqi conflict. Also, no agreement, spoken or unspoken, is forthcoming on the long-standing request of the Iraqi government that Arab diplomatic representation return to Baghdad.

Silence also surrounded the so far inconclusive security plan adopted by the Iraqi government, as well as US plans to construct separation walls that many see as sectarian, in dozens of Baghdad neighbourhoods.

Also, upon determined US and Iraqi insistence, and contrary to appeals made by several Arab participants, no timeframe, even tentative, for the withdrawal of US troops was included in either text, despite roundabout references to the commitment of the Iraqi government to take the destiny of Iraq in its own hands. "We all know that when we re- establish our security apparatus and our army we will be considering this timetable. For now, what we need is a timetable for the rehabilitation of Iraqi forces," Al-Dabbagh said yesterday.

Also left aside was a proposal for all fighting factions to lay down arms to allow a genuine Arab-sponsored reconciliation process to be launched.

Overall, despite commitments with regards to the cancelling of some Iraqi debts, not much was expected to come out of this week's meetings in terms of concrete action. In the words of one informed Arab diplomat, "there is not even firm evidence that whatever good intentions were reflected in the meetings, including from the Iraqi side, would be translated into executive policies."

In the view of many participants, concrete results were more likely to emerge from side meetings. One such meeting scheduled for late last night between US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki, who was not originally slated to participate aimed, according to American sources, to allow Rice to expressly demand action from Maliki on reducing sectarian bias. It was perhaps this expectation, Arab diplomats argued, that prompted Al-Dabbagh to announce a planned cabinet reshuffle hours before the arrival of Rice in Sharm El-Sheikh yesterday. Awareness of the growing impatience of Washington with Maliki may have been a catalyst for former Iraqi prime minister Iyad Allawi to arrive in Cairo this week to lobby support for replacing the current Iraqi government with one under his patronage.

For many, the true eye-catching moment in Sharm El-Sheikh will be a scheduled meeting between Rice and her Iranian and Syrian counterparts. Informed sources say that Rice is hoping to receive firm commitments from both to assist in stabilising the situation in Iraq in return for some measure of policy flexibility from Washington.

Meanwhile, the Sharm El-Sheikh meetings are taking place against a backdrop of a heightened tension between US President George W Bush and Congressional Democrats over the funding of the war in Iraq, in the wake of Bush vetoing a military spending bill that included a timetable for US withdrawal. The veto came exactly four years after Bush, speaking aboard a US aircraft carrier under a giant "Mission Accomplished" banner, declared "major combat operations" over in Iraq, following the US-led invasion of March 2003.