Tricky balancing act

Egypt says there is no letting go of its "role" in the Palestinian issue, Dina Ezzat reports

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Egypt this week was quick to deny news reports suggesting plans to pull out its security delegation from Gaza. The rumour was circulated in and outside of Gaza following a serious deterioration of the security situation in the Strip that included a shootout where a member of the Egyptian delegation was injured.

Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul-Gheit elected to quash the rumour himself in what was perceived by infighting Palestinian factions, Fatah and Hamas, as a sign of determined Egyptian presence in Gaza. Affirming its will to stay the course in Gaza, the delegation worked hard to broker yet another ceasefire between Fatah and Hamas operatives. The deal was widely welcomed in the Palestinian and Egyptian press. However, according to Egyptian and Palestinian officials who spoke to Al-Ahram Weekly on condition of anonymity, this deal is likely to be broken sooner rather than later. According to these same sources, neither the Egyptian delegation nor any other mediator, including the influential Saudis, is capable of brokering a solid truce in Gaza.

The reason is attributed to the conflicting nature of the respective agendas of Fatah and Hamas in relation to any future course towards the declaration of an independent Palestinian state. Moreover, it is related to the inability of Egypt to be fully impartial. Most of the older cadres of Fatah were trained and supported by Egypt, and many of the new cadres -- not excluding the controversial figures like Mohamed Dahlan -- can always find somebody to welcome them in Cairo. Egypt provides Fatah with support, Egyptian officials argue, in light of the fact that Fatah is the faction of elected Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. At the end of the day, Hamas sees this as bias.

Indeed, in the analysis of several observers, including Israeli analysts, the recent breakout of clashes between Fatah and Hamas was prompted, among other reasons, by third level Hamas cadres who were angered by news suggesting that Egypt had sent to Gaza Palestinian presidential guard officers recently trained in Egypt. Hamas was also angered by news, deemed by them credible, of increased military support offered to Fatah by Egypt. According to Hamas, Egypt cannot mediate between Fatah and Hamas while it is taking steps to support one faction and not the other.

Members of the Egyptian security delegation and officials in Cairo attempted to play down Hamas's concerns. Likewise did senior Palestinian presidential officials. According to the official view in Cairo, any training afforded to Fatah operatives was publicly agreed upon as part of Egypt's plan of lending technical support to the Palestinian Authority. And Egypt is determined to provide this support. It is also determined to lobby regional and international support for the Palestinian Authority.

The fact of the matter is, whether they wish to say it or not, Egyptian officials have pragmatic -- fair or otherwise -- reasons for attempting to "empower" Fatah. Egypt has been for decades promoting a course of political negotiations with Israel. This is a course that Fatah is willing to pursue but Hamas is not. Egypt is concerned about the consequences of Hamas's jihadist approach to the Palestinian cause. Officials, rightly or wrongly, believe that this approach would only cost the Palestinians further political and territorial losses, and that negotiations are the only way towards an independent Palestinian state.

This week, while condemning aggressive Israeli attacks on Gaza that killed many Hamas operatives as well as innocent civilians, Foreign Minister Abul- Gheit made sure to denounce the launching of Qassam rockets on Israeli settlements. "The launch of the rockets is not to the interest of either Palestinians or Israelis. Israel has the military upper hand, so he who attacks it by a rocket will be pounded by tens of Israeli artillery," Abul-Gheit said Saturday. Abul-Gheit called upon Palestinians to stop launching Qassam rockets and urged Israelis not to use force against Palestinians, in order "to avoid further escalation".

Informed Egypt sources say that despite Cairo's profound frustration with the determination of some groups within Hamas to keep on launching Qassam rockets, and the inability -- or for that matter unwillingness -- of the Hamas leadership to bring about an end to this practice, Egypt, "at very high levels", has been pressing Israel not to engage in further aggressive attacks on the Palestinians. "We talk directly with the Israelis and we talk repeatedly with the Americans, to seek their use of leverage upon Israel to contain attacks on Palestinians," commented one informed source. According to another source, Egypt has so far secured an Israeli promise of avoiding either a fullscale incursion into Gaza or collective punitive measures upon Gazans, such as the total cut of drinking water or electricity Likud leader Benyamin Netanyahu has been proposing.

Egyptian officials know, however, that if he finds it in his political interest, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who is widely seen by Israelis as a weak military leader, might easily find a pretext to break his verbal assurances to Cairo. Therefore, if Egypt really wishes to prevent a new nightmare scenario unfolding in Gaza, it has to find a way to convince Hamas to stop firing rockets.

It appears that there are two ways for Cairo to meet this objective. One approach is to engage Hamas directly. Hamas was unhappy that when visiting Cairo Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh was not received by President Hosni Mubarak. Further, Hamas was unimpressed by the low-key Egyptian response to threats made by Israel's deputy minister of defence against its leaders, including Haniyeh who was democratically elected. Added to grievances already felt over Egypt's support of Fatah, it is hard to imagine Hamas's leadership succumbing to Egyptian pressure regarding Qassam rockets unless Egypt gives something in return. Yet Egypt appears unwilling, or unable, to alter its alliances, at least not in the near future.

The second approach is for Cairo to adopt a declared policy of siding with Fatah against Hamas. Egyptian officials insist that this is something they cannot do. "It is simply unaffordable," said one official. Hamas, as Egyptian officials know very well, is in control of Gaza, Egypt's immediate and volatile backyard. Hamas also enjoys considerable public support in Egypt. Moreover, Egypt has no faith in the ability of Fatah to pull its acts together and should Cairo choose to side with it unequivocally.

In sum, Egypt's "role" in mediating inter-Palestinian conflict is likely to be continuously haunted by these complex and delicate calculations. Meanwhile, Egypt is not very optimistic about the chances of starting a peace process between Israel and the Palestinian Authority. "A serious process of negotiations could help change the mood and priorities for Palestinians, but this does not seem to be likely, especially not under this government," commented one senior Egyptian official.

So for now, Egypt has to sustain a complicated balancing act. In the near term, its role appears to be focussed on empowering Mahmoud Abbas, head of Fatah, to talk as much Egyptian wisdom as possible to Hamas while appealing to the US to encourage Israel to talk to the Palestinians, if not on ending the occupation then at least on managing the occupation at a lower level of Palestinian suffering. But while this approach might prolong intervals between inter-Palestinian infighting and minimise Israeli incursions, it cannot deliver more sophisticated objectives.