Another heat wave

This summer will be no less hotter than what Lebanon was last year, writes Doaa El-Bey

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The clash between the Lebanese army and Fatah Al-Islam in Nahr Al-Bared Camp for Palestinian refugees posed another challenge to a Middle East already suffering from inter- Palestinian fighting, the war in Iraq and the Iranian nuclear problem.

Abdullah Al-Seweigi wrote in Al-Ittihad that Lebanon was facing a new crisis and questioned where the situation would lead Beirut after the US provided the Lebanese army with weapons. Al-Seweigi believed that the latest clashes complicated the situation on both the Palestinian and Lebanese levels. On the Palestinian level, it proved that it was impossible to resolve the situation militarily as that could foment fighting in other Palestinian camps and leave many innocent civilians dead. On the Lebanese level, the Lebanese army is not politically, militarily or psychologically ready to face an Islamic organisation like Fatah Al-Islam. He reached the conclusion that Lebanon has entered into a dark alley and has to find a way out, but the military solution should be the last resort.

"Lebanon is facing a real problem -- either a Lebanese-Palestinian war or disorder that would take Lebanon back to the 1970s. The present division in the political arena and the deteriorating economic situation further exacerbate the situation and threatens to destabilise the country," Al-Seweigi wrote in the independent United Arab Emirates daily.

He said that what was happening in Lebanon could happen in any other Arab state in conflict with the "Zionist entity". He regarded resolving the problem of the Palestinian refugees as the only way out and called on the Arab League to intervene to provide all the Palestinians with their political and civil rights.

Mustafa Al-Dabbagh described the latest incidents in Nahr Al-Bared as a scenario to kidnap Lebanon again by involving it in another civil war that was likely to leave it completely destroyed. Al-Dabbagh wrote that there are factors that support that destruction scenario like the failure of the various Lebanese parties to reach an agreement regarding the current political and security crisis and the fragility of the Lebanese arena to an extent that allows armed groups to form suspicious organisations that work according to external agendas.

Nevertheless, Al-Dabbagh added, there are other factors that underline that the situation in Nahr Al-Bared is not likely to expand to other areas in Lebanon. The first of these is the nature of Fatah Al-Islam: the group lacks the geographic influence or the popular support that would allow it to attract followers.

In addition, "the leaders of the various Lebanese factions who took part in the civil war acquired the experience and the deep-rooted conviction that resorting to violence is futile. That explains the stand that both the government and opposition parties took from Fatah Al-Islam," Al-Dabbagh wrote in the independent Jordanian daily Al-Rai.

Mohamed Salman wrote that the direct aggression on the Lebanese army was not a coincidence but a calculated plan that carried several Israeli messages: draining the abilities of the army in side fighting at the expense of his resistance in the south; impeding any inter-Lebanese initiatives or meetings likely to resolve the internal political crisis; using the Lebanese crisis in forming the new Middle East in which Israel would be the central state; and giving Arab and international public opinion the false impression that Lebanon is a country of wars and conflicts.

In the Lebanese daily Al-Liwaa, Salman called on all the Lebanese parties to try to reach a comprehensive and quick solution to their difference so that the crisis would go away and their own country would remain.

Irfan Nizameddin wrote that the region was heading towards a scorching hot summer, heralding great danger which could blow away regimes as well as peoples. He emphasised in the London-based daily Al-Hayat that Lebanon's summer would be hotter than any other area in the region because of the expected formation of the Al-Hariri international tribunal and its internal repercussions, and the presidential elections that are likely to cause controversy, push Lebanon into civil war and divide it into two governments and two presidents as well as two conflicting sides.

"Wise and experienced leaders are urgently required to deal with hot files and draw up a roadmap to uproot civil strife," Nizameddin said.

The Iranian nuclear file was among the thorny issues that he said could lead to a US strike against Iran.

Other writers expressed concern about the outcome of Iran's nuclear programme when all eyes are watching the US-Iran meeting in Baghdad this week. Mohamed Kharoub cast light on the importance of the meeting as the first of its kind since the 1979 US hostage crisis in Iran. He pinned hopes that it would lead to resolving the Iraqi crisis after the failure of past conferences because all the participants, especially the Arab parties and the present Iraqi government, did not have the power or influence to impose their point of view or control the situation inside Iraq.

"The US-Iran dialogue would interest the two parties. Iran is definitely not in a weak situation because it has the cards and influence that forced Washington to recognise it as the only partner in Iraqi affairs. The Arabs should learn a lesson from Iran before it is too late," Kharoub wrote in Al-Rai.

Zuhair Qusaibati wrote in Al-Hayat that although the Iraqi file is the only publicised aim of the meeting, there are other goals behind the scenes. In their carrot-and-stick policy, Qusaibati guessed that Iran would offer its help to make the US mission in Iraq easier as a carrot in return for Washington's promise not to push for more sanctions against Iran.

He also expected that Iran would try to threaten to divide the united US-European stand regarding its nuclear programme. Iran is trying to offer the new French president a more influential role in the Middle East in return for a less firm stand on its nuclear programme.

"Baghdad is just the starting point that would pave the way for the 'big deal' that has not been concluded up till now for two reasons: Washington found it hard to recognise an influential Iranian role in the region, and it found it extremely difficult to allow the present Iranian government to record a victory in its nuclear programme," Qusaibati wrote.