Shura scramble

The battle lines for next week's mid-term Shura Council elections are being drawn, reports Gamal Essam El-Din

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Banners in preparation for the Shura Council elections are seen everywhere

Mid-term Shura Council elections, scheduled for 11 June, promise stiff competition between the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) and the banned Muslim Brotherhood in at least some constituencies.

In Monday's poll, 609 candidates will vie for 88 seats. Run-off elections will be held on 18 June.

The ruling NDP is fielding 109 candidates, meaning official NDP candidates will be running against one another in 21 districts. Small opposition parties are fielding 67 candidates. While the liberal-oriented Wafd Party and the leftist Nasserist are boycotting the poll, the low-profile Al-Geel Al-Gadid (the New Generation), the Khodr (Greens), the Takaful (Mutual Support), the Conservatives, the Free Constitutional Party, Al-Ghad, the Free Republican, and the National Wifaq (Consensus) parties are all contesting seats. Members of the Tagammu are also standing, though they are running on a private rather than party basis, as are supporters of the former head of Wafd. Their position vis-à-vis the official Wafd remains anomalous.

Police crackdowns on the banned Muslim Brotherhood intensified as the elections drew closer. Brotherhood sources say 350 members have been rounded up since Sunday. Yet the group still managed to register 19 candidates, suggesting that the Brotherhood had already prepared a reserve list of candidates in anticipation of the arrests and is determined to embarrass the NDP. "With our 19 candidates," says Essam El-Erian, a senior Brotherhood leader, "the NDP will find it difficult to repeat its easy wins of the past."

The 19 Muslim Brotherhood candidates will stand in 13 different governorates. There are no Brotherhood candidates running in Cairo.

The rest of the total of 609 hopefuls comprise mainly NDP candidates, many past members of the People's Assembly, who decided to run as independents after the party declined to nominate them officially.

Official NDP Shura candidates include Ahmed Al-Amawy, a former minister of labour, in the east Cairo's district of Hadayeq Al-Qubba, Sameh Fahmi, minister of petroleum, in Suez, Hani Seif El-Nasr, secretary-general of the Social Fund for Development, in Fayoum, and Samir Zaher, chairman of the Egyptian Football Federation, in the Delta governorate of Damietta. They are joined by leading businessmen. Mohamed Farag Amer, head of a huge food products conglomerate, is standing in Alexandria, car importer Hussein Abaza in the Delta governorate of Sharqiya and Zaki El-Sewidy, head of a company producing electric cables, in Sharqiya. The NDP's list includes a single woman, Ibtesam Abu Rehab, standing in Wadi Al-Gadid. A total of 10 women will be competing in the 11 June elections.

In Cairo some districts will witness hard fought battles. In Gammaliya Mohamed Ragab, the NDP's Shura Council spokesman, faces Gamila Ismail, wife of Ayman Nour, the jailed opposition leader. In Qasr Al-Nil the NDP's Nabil El-Alkamy faces independent business tycoon Mohamed El-Massoud, while in the densely populated south Cairo district of Sayeda Zeinab two official NDP candidates -- Mohamed Sayed El-Rawass and Ahmed Salama -- will face cut-throat competition. In the Giza governorate district of Imbaba Iman Gomaa, daughter of the former Wafd Party Chairman Noaman Gomaa, will battle it out with the NDP candidate Mahmoud Morgan.

NDP leaders, conscious of the threat posed by Muslim Brotherhood candidates, are today beginning to rally support for their party's official candidates. Gamal Mubarak, the 44- year-old son of President Hosni Mubarak and chairman of the NDP's powerful Policies Committee, and NDP Secretary-General Safwat El-Sherif, will attend a rally in Nasr City in support of the party's candidates.

Diaa Rashwan, an analyst with Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, argues that, "the NDP believes that Brotherhood success in infiltrating the Shura Council will be a dangerous development."

"The existence of Brotherhood elements within the Shura Council," he says, "will compound the difficulties the government already faces with 88 Brotherhood MPs in the People's Assembly."

Rashwan expects many obstacles to be placed in the way of the Brotherhood's 19 candidates. "They could be disqualified from the campaign by the Supreme Election Commission (SEC) for reasons ranging from raising religious slogans to belonging to an outlawed group," said Rashwan. Even worse, he adds, security forces could repeat scenes in the 2005 parliamentary elections when Brotherhood supporters were forcibly prevented from voting.

The Brotherhood's Deputy Supreme Guide Mohamed Habib has indicated that in the face of police crackdowns, the Brotherhood might adapt its strategy. "Rather than plastering districts with religious posters and slogans Brotherhood candidates will establish direct contact with voters through visiting their homes and canvassing with families one at a time," says Habib. "This is the only method left to us since we will never be able to hold rallies like the ruling NDP or opposition parties."

In a report issued on Saturday, the New York-based Human Rights Watch criticised the government for its crackdown against the Brotherhood ahead of next week's Shura elections. The report said more than 90 Brotherhood members were arrested in May, with most coming from districts in which the group aims to field candidates. In all, the report said, more than 1,000 Brotherhood members were arrested between March 2006 and March 2007. It also noted that while Brotherhood and secular opposition candidates face many obstacles in campaigning the NDP has been given free access to all state-owned organisations, "casting doubt on the integrity of next week's mid-term elections and... on the intentions of political reform in Egypt."