Danger at sea

Rising sea levels and coastal erosion are threatening Egypt's Mediterranean coast and the Delta region. Reem Leila finds out why

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Global warming threatens the Delta: the Mediterranean encroaches on urban development in Abu-Quir, Alexandria

According to a recent study conducted by the Climate Change Division of the Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency (EEAA), rising sea levels, coastline erosion and the infiltration of saltwater into groundwater are impacting the country's Mediterranean coastline and the Delta, leading to major challenges for water and agricultural resources, as well as tourism and human settlements.

The study, which predicted a 30cm rise in the sea level by 2025, said that these factors could lead to the loss by inundation of approximately 200 square kilometres of land, the possible displacement of more than 500,000 people, and the loss of some 70,000 jobs.

According to Mohamed El-Raey, professor at the Institute for Study and Research at Alexandria University, Egypt's coastal zone extends for more than 3,500km along the Mediterranean and Red Sea coasts, and it is home to more than 40 per cent of the country's population, most of which lives in or around densely populated cities such as Alexandria, Port Said, Damietta, Rashid and Suez.

However, "the Mediterranean coastline is more vulnerable to a rise in sea level [than the Red Sea coast]," El-Raey said, "due to its relatively low elevation." Any such rise would pose a threat to many inhabitants of the Mediterranean coastal zones.

Coastal erosion is accompanied by the recession of the shoreline and the loss of land area. According to Sayed Sabri, head of the EEAA's Climate Change Division, during storms sea currents combine to reshape the seafloor, causing a pattern of erosion and accretion and either a gain or loss of beach volume. Such factors do not necessarily indicate the long-term path of change, but they certainly contribute to it.

Another main cause of coastal erosion is the decreasing supply of sediment brought by rivers to coastal areas, dams intercepting almost all sediment travelling along the river's path. "Factors associated with longer-term effects, such as changes in sediment supply, sea level rise and coastal subsidence are directly responsible for the long-term behaviour of the coast," Sabri said.

However, the most significant threat to Egypt's coastline is climate change and rising sea levels.

Since the industrial revolution that took place in developed countries from the beginning of the 19th century onwards, industrialisation has been based on the use of coal and other hydrocarbons as sources of fuel, leading to ever-increasing emissions of carbon dioxide gas into the atmosphere when such fossil fuels are burned. The clearance of large areas of forest has also enhanced levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide.

At the beginning of the last century, levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide stood at below 280 ppm (parts per million), but by the early 1990s they had increased to over 350 ppm. It is these rising levels that have "contributed to the warming of the earth's atmosphere," Sabri said, "leading to the thawing of the ice at the North and South poles and the increase in global sea levels."

Coastal erosion that comes about as a result does not only cause the loss of valuable land. It also necessitates expensive coastal-protection schemes to save facilities sometimes developed years before, and these schemes can only be planned with advance knowledge of the possible future evolution of the coastline.

Mona Gamaleddin, head of the Alexandria EEAA, stresses the importance of not constructing buildings and roads too close to the coastline, since if there is not a sufficiently wide buffer zone large amounts of money will later have to be invested to build sea walls and breakwaters to stabilise eroding coastlines and save threatened buildings.

"According to international standards, there is usually a minimum width of at least 100 metres from the shore on which construction is restricted," Gamaleddin says. "Egypt should abide by this, though the rule is being violated in several areas."

The need to protect coastal zones at risk from the effects of climate change has been internationally recognised, with the United Nations Convention on Climate Change urging developed and developing countries to work together to mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change.

The convention stresses the need to provide decision- makers with information on environmental problems and sustainable development.

While Egypt has carried out studies and is making a great effort to meet the convention's guidelines, Sabri says that it is not yet eligible to access funds to help meet the effects of climate change.

However, "Egypt will present its plans to the World Meteorological Organisation regarding the limitation of coastal erosion by the end of this year," he said.

"By the beginning of 2008, the country should be entitled to funds in order to help face up to this impending natural disaster."