November's next

Arab diplomacy has its eyes set on Washington and the forthcoming US proposed peace gathering, writes Dina Ezzat

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The Middle East diplomatic season has already picked up in full. Western envoys are resuming regional meetings and Arab officials and diplomats are doing likewise. The challenges facing the region are as intense as ever. In the view of some Arab officials, never have things been worse.

In a solemn statement to the opening of the regular session of the Council of Arab Foreign Ministers yesterday, Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa told his audience that Sudan is the only front among many hotspots across the Arab world where progress is being made in containing conflict. As for the most challenging fronts of Palestine, Iraq and Lebanon, no progress could be reported. Even the usual array of hopeful or resolute statements by either Moussa or concerned ministers participating in the meeting at the headquarters of the Arab League was absent.

The accent, as portrayed by statements during the opening session and during closed-door discussions, seemed to be a diagnosis rather than the remedy of problems. Speakers spent most of their time reiterating platitudes on "threatening dangers" and "the need to act promptly". Few operative ideas were in circulation.

On the Palestinian front, no positive nods were made by any of the participating foreign ministers to the heart- breaking appeal of UNRWA High Commissioner Karen Abu Zeid for more generous Arab financial assistance to the Palestinians in the occupied territories, especially Gaza, that she said are subject to suffering that far exceeds what is deemed intolerable under international law. Only a humble attempt on the part of the Arab League secretariat -- with little support from Arab capitals -- to seek some sort of low-level inter-Palestinian reconciliation was forwarded.

The appeal for Palestinian dialogue, which does not even have much support from the official Fatah-controlled Palestinian Authority delegation, was included within a report presented to the ministers by the Arab Fact Finding Committee that was formed in the wake of Fatah-Hamas clashes in Gaza in June, and that was effectively denied full access on the ground by President Mahmoud Abbas. The report of the committee, which was based on accounts offered by the two conflicting sides, was very blurred. It failed to firmly point out wrongdoers due to the exaggerated attempt of its authors to accommodate all conflicting viewpoints.

Meanwhile, the euphoria generated in the wake of the Arab summit to re- launch the Arab peace initiative and kick-start a process of serious Arab -- especially Palestinian -- negotiations has all but been eclipsed by the US- proposed international gathering on Palestinian-Israeli peace slated for November. While an Arab minority is keen on setting serious Arab conditions concerning any possible outcome of this meeting, the majority is for embracing whatever might be offered in the spirit of "something is better than nothing".

"There is agreement on some basics that will be expressed in the format of demands rather than conditions," commented one Arab League source that requested anonymity. These are: the full participation of all concerned Arab parties -- a euphemism for demanding the inclusion of Syria and the Arab League, which Washington has seemed reluctant to invite -- and an agreement on mechanisms. There is also a tendency towards demanding that the meeting conclude with a clear-cut outcome, especially in relation to the launching of final status talks between the Palestinians and Israelis on the basis of clear principles and in a realistic timeframe. There is also a tendency, on the part of some but not all, to demand UN Security Council supervision of any future negotiations.

"It would be useless, indeed downright counter-productive, if Arabs were to submit to participate in a meeting that would boil down to be no more than a political photo opportunity... This would simply underline the unfairness the Arabs suffer," Moussa said in his opening remarks.

During an Egyptian-Jordanian summit in Alexandria Tuesday, both President Hosni Mubarak and King Abdullah demanded that the international peace gathering commit itself to producing clear results. This demand has been relayed to Washington, Egyptian diplomats say, and also visiting envoy of the International Quartet on the Middle East Tony Blair and European Union Foreign Policy Chief Javier Solana. According to one informed Egyptian official, however, the proposed Washington meeting is still surrounded by uncertainty. Arab officials will meet American and other counterparts this month in New York on the fringes of the UN General Assembly. The meetings should clear up some of this uncertainty, he added.

In New York, Arab officials are also hoping to reach agreement with Western counterparts on developments in Lebanon. In Cairo, Arab foreign ministers underlined the need for conflicting Lebanese political forces to observe the late November deadline stipulated by the constitution to nominate a successor, accepted by all, to current President Emile Lahoud. However, as Arab diplomats acknowledged privately, French-American support needs to be secured for a comprehensive process of Lebanese political reconciliation beyond the presidential nomination issue. For this to occur, some Arab diplomats acknowledged, dialogue with Iran, which greatly influences Hizbullah and some other Shia segments in Lebanon, would have to be sought on the fringes of the UN General Assembly meeting.

Talks with Iran, which are unlikely to be high profile or for that matter high- level, would also necessarily address the situation in Iraq, in view of what many Arabs perceive as an unhelpful Iranian influence that has largely resulted in bloody sectarian strife. Arab-Iranian consultations would also likely broach possible -- and controversial -- scenarios of Iranian security assistance to Iraq in the event of a gradual pull down of American troops early next year.