Sheathe the sabres

Six years after 9/11 and the US-led occupation of Afghanistan, the Taliban are making a remarkable comeback, writes Gamal Nkrumah

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A Pakistani army officer examines the site of a suspected suicide attack in Rawalpindi. Suspected suicide bombings tore through a bus carrying Pakistani defence workers in the garrison city of Rawalpindi and a market minutes later, killing 24

True to the nostrum that in politics a gaffe is when a statesman tells the truth, United States President George W Bush slipped up recently by revealing that: "We've got to fight the terrorists overseas so that we don't have to fight them at home". Prophesies might become self-fulfilling. Bush's twisted logic, however, made national security the signature theme of his presidency. He is losing the fight against overseas "terrorists" and the legacy of his failed presidency has come home to roost.

Bush adamantly refuses to admit that his unfortunate decision to invade and militarily occupy Afghanistan in 2001 was not exactly a barrel of laughs. His predictions floundered on the rock of the escalating war in Afghanistan this summer with the sixth anniversary of 9/11. Afghanistan is a veritable catastrophe of cataclysmic implications for the entire region.

This is a black time for the US-led coalition forces in Afghanistan. An upsurge in violence is expected at the onset of winter. The West has contributed to this gloomy situation by failing to pay enough attention to the underlying dynamics of Afghan society and culture. It is estimated that NATO and US fatalities are up by about 20 per cent this year. True, the Taliban have been unable to storm major towns this year but it remains in control of most of the countryside, and according to the UN, the movement has already carried out 102 suicide bombings in 2007.

The surge in fighting takes place in defiance of the presence of more than 50,000 foreign forces and 110,000 Afghan troops. The Afghan police are subject to a terrifying onslaught by the Taliban. No week passes without some calamitous attack in which Afghan police are slaughtered. Foreign "peacekeepers" invariably stand idly by. Indeed, Taliban bombings and guerrilla strikes claimed the lives of 379 policemen so far this year -- compared with 257 for all of last year.

It is hardly surprising given the Bush administration's dyspeptic mood at the moment. The Taliban have chased government forces out of much of southern Afghanistan. The greater the Taliban victories, the more followers it attracts. Afghans are not yet ready to back a loser -- and Afghan President Hamid Karzai is seen as such.

There is much speculation that the Taliban will launch an attack on NATO forces during Ramadan. They have been stepping up their military pressure on the US-led coalition forces. Western powers charge that China is supplying weapons to the Taliban, a claim Beijing hotly denies.

Fuelled by an unprecedented build-up, the Taliban are regrouping. They have stepped up their combative strategy to oust the occupation forces from Afghanistan and are now operating chiefly in parts of the rugged country where they can count on local support. They are mounting attacks on Kandahar, the largest city in the south and a former Taliban stronghold.

The Taliban does not need to look for a pretext to strike: Afghanistan is under occupation. Technically the Taliban are still the de jure government and thus the defenders of Afghan sovereignty and independence. The movement is in a belligerent mood. The Karzai government, on the other hand, is widely seen as a puppet regime.

Other nations have already been dragged in the quagmire of Afghanistan. Take South Korea, for example; it has recently been the unwitting victim of embroilment in Afghanistan. Taliban fighters kidnapped 23 South Korean missionaries on 19 July. Two were executed and the rest were finally released after a gruelling ordeal. The Korean Christians were freed after Korea promised not to allow further proselytisation and to pull out its 200 troops -- though they were involved only in construction not combat. The deal underlines US allies' growing concerns about the safety of their nationals in the face of retaliatory threats from the Taliban. Germany, too, is frantic over Rudolf Blechschmidt, held captive now for over two months by the Taliban.

Upon their release, the Koreans held high the portraits of two fellow church volunteers executed by their kidnappers and apologised for putting their country through a wrenching, highly controversial hostage drama. The released hostages came under fire for interfering in the internal affairs of Afghanistan.

Most Koreans were relieved that the hostage ordeal came to a satisfactorily end, but many Koreans expressed anger at the hostages' decision to travel to Afghanistan despite government warnings, and at what many consider fanatical proselytising by South Korean churches. Around 30 per cent of the South Korean population are Christian, even though Buddhism is the predominant religion in the country.

The Taliban claim that Seoul paid them more than $20 million, which Western powers warn would be used to purchase more Chinese weapons. The South Korean government has denied these allegations.

The Koreans have found this ordeal exceptionally painful. "We owe a big debt to the nation and people," Yoo Kyung Shik, 55, the oldest of the freed hostages, declared at Incheon airport on the outskirts of Seoul. She read a prepared statement addressed to the South Korean people. Fighting back tears, Yoo likened his group's contrition to seok go dae zoe -- an ancient Korean practice in which criminals were forced to kneel down in public until the sovereign either punished or pardoned them.

The Taliban, with an equally ascetic code of honour, are determined to press on with their cause. They have vowed to route the "infidel invaders". When exactly they plan the final push is uncertain. So for now the threat may recede.

The Taliban launched guerrilla attacks after NATO troops partly withdrew from key Taliban-controlled areas of the country in July. They took full advantage and are now staging a classic protracted armed struggle. They easily overran several police stations making it obvious that the US-led coalition forces are in no position to protect the Afghan police.

A typical perspective is that expressed by Dost Mohamed Dostiyar, the counter-narcotics chief of Oruzgan province. He warned that people had lost faith in the Afghan government. "One of the big reasons the people have distanced themselves from the government is that the government only has control of the capital," he was quoted as saying. "The rural areas are totally under the control of the Taliban."

Washington created the Taliban as an anti-Soviet bulwark. However, the Frankenstein turned on its progenitor and continues to haunt it. A fundamental rapprochement, the only long term solution, is out of the question, barring some miracle and fundamental changes in Washington's approach to the Muslim world.